The Irish Trojan's Blog - Page 2

According to Mike, WWL is reporting that "80% of the city is underwater, up to 20 feet deep" and "both airports are under, the yacht club is gone, water is still entering, houses have broken off their foundations and are floating free."

This is all presumably because of the delayed breach of the 17th Street canal (see below). Lake Pontchartrain is entering the city and becoming Lake New Orleans. This is what we all feared. The cable news networks have not really caught on yet to what is happening.

CONFIRMED: From the WWL website: "Mayor Ray Nagin reports the Twin Span Bridge is 'totally destroyed' and that 80% of the city is underwater."

MORE: From NOLA:

A large section of the vital 17th Street Canal levee, where it connects to the brand new ‘hurricane proof’ Old Hammond Highway bridge, gave way late Monday morning in Bucktown after Katrina’s fiercest winds were well north. The breach sent a churning sea of water coursing across Lakeview and into Mid-City, Carrollton, Gentilly, City Park and neighborhoods farther south and east.

As night fell on a devastated region, the water was still rising in the city, and nobody was willing to predict when it would stop.

I'm not sure if they really mean "late Monday morning," or if that should read "late Monday night" or perhaps "early Tuesday morning," which would jive better with the hospital official's story (she said the water had been rising fast for about two hours). On the other hand, maybe the breach was a trickle at first and has gotten progressively worse. Either way, this is very bad.

This should be a streaming video of the mayor's comments, though it's not working for me.

There is a two-block-long breach in the Lake Pontchartrain levee, and the water in downtown New Orleans is rising at the rate of one inch every 5 minutes, according to Karen Troyer-Caraway, vice president of the Tulane University Medial Center. She said she got the information about the breach from the state police, having herself witnessed the rising water for the last two hours.
The breach is at 17th Street canal, she says, which is at "the geographical border between Orleans and Jefferson parish -- the breach is on the Orleans parish side, so it's dumping all the water from the lake into Orleans parish, and it's essentially running down Canal Street, and there are whitecaps on the street, it's flowing so fast ... The water is rising so fast, I cannot begin to describe it." And she says the rate of water rise is increasing.

The hospital is in downtown New Orleans -- the central business district. They did not have any substantial street flooding during the storm, but now, they are contemplating an air evacuation because the ground floor is submerged, and the second floor, where the emergency generators are located, will be submerged soon if the water keeps rising at this rate. They have been on emergency generator power since 2:00 AM.

It sounds to me like the worst-case scenario, or something very like it, may happen after all. Is there anything that can stop Lake Pontchartrain from flooding the city, now that there is such a substantial breach? This is a catastrophe, and it's happening right now.

(source)

NOLA:

Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Mike Brown called Katrina one of the worst disasters he has seen, exceeded only by California wildfires.

"This is a catastrophic storm," he said. "People will not get back to their homes for several weeks -- if not longer."

Jeanne Meserve is on CNN, talking about stranded people in New Orleans who can't get help. She's breaking down. She can barely hold herself together enough to talk to Aaron Brown.

"We [reporters] are wacky thrill-seekers sometimes, but when you stand in the dark, and you hear people yelling for help and no one can get to them, it's a totally different experience."

One of the reasons they can't get to people is because some of the natural-gas and electrical lines are still "live," and it's too dangerous to take boats around in those areas, according to CNN photojournalist Mark Biello.

"Could be hundreds of deaths by tomorrow." --Biello

Water still rising -- slowly, not dramatically like before, but still rising.

Lots of dogs and cats also stranded on rooftops, along with humans, Biello says. (An important question: what about the snakes?)

There has been looting in New Orleans. Assholes.

Meanwhile, WSDU is reportedly showing footage of a fire spreading from house to house in Metairie.

Also... CNN is now reporting that conditions at the Superdome are getting "progressively worse." There is some considerable "tension" among the population inside, according to Ray Bias, an emergency worker at the dome, and he's not sure how much longer the current situation will remain tenable.

In comments, Chris writes:

People will NOT be going back home for a long long time to much of New Orleans, even if the water drops, which will take a long time because three of the huge pumps are out, there is now sewage, waste, pollution, disease carring agents and vectors of all kinds EVERYWHERE....many of the older houses will have to be condemned, many of the people living in them before will not be able to afford to rebuild, the roads, rail system and infrastructre of all kinds is severely damaged, I heard at least one major bridge on 10 is "comprimised"

That sounds right to me. He also criticizes news anchors for constantly saying "people are asking when they can go home," as if the big story here is the impatience of the evacuees. "Don't they realize that this just delays the reality of what all those people must face, they will be in camps or refugees possibly for many months?"

UPDATE: I-10 bridge story confirmed: "Sections of the Interstate 10 twin bridges linking St. Tammany and Orleans parishes over Lake Pontchartrain have been 'severely damaged' in both directions, some probably knocked out, Louisiana's highway boss said."

NOLA: "Jefferson Parish's Chief Administrative Assistant Tim Whitmer said the damage from Hurricane Katrina was almost equally split between the east bank and the West Bank. 'We have widespread devastation in the parish,' he said." Details, and lots of other good info, on the NOLA breaking-news blog.

Meanwhile, off to the east in Mississippi, "things are very bad" in the Gulfport/Biloxi area, according to the Sun-Herald storm blog:

I've gotten several hundred specific queries about friends, families and neighborhoods. I've told several people that it is easier to list the things that are undamaged than those that have been pounded. That's the honest truth.

We've got significant loss of life, with around 40 dead in Biloxi alone. We're trying to glean other information from Coast municipalities and counties, but communications are brutal here at the moment. Shortly, we'll be posting some stories that will be appearing in tomorrow's edition, which will be printed in Columbus, Ga., and flown by helicopter for distribution as best we can in the area.

Now CNN is reporting that one, maybe two oil rigs are "adrift" and missing in the Gulf of Mexico. The Coast Guard is aerially searching for them.

"Officials reported at least 55 deaths, with 50 alone in Harrison County, Miss., which includes Gulfport and Biloxi. Emergency workers feared that they would find more dead among people believed to be trapped underwater and in collapsed buildings."

Also: "Insurance experts said that damage could exceed $9 billion, which would make it one of the costliest storms on record."

P.S. A commenter notes: "55 . . . that's a high death toll to start with in the US. Highest starting death toll I've heard since 9/11. These natural disaster tolls only tend to go up. Not good." My thoughts exactly.

Adam Stone speculates via e-mail, "I think the death toll will be in the hundreds." He comments, "I just talked to my friend in Ocean Springs, MS who works for the city. He told me that they have been pulling bodies out of houses all day. The surge in Ocean Springs (on the east side of Biloxi) was in excess of 20 feet. This is worse than I could imagine ever happening. Lots of missing people."

[snip; see page 2]

This used to be an apartment building:

The New York Times has some great pictures and video, including these shots:





Meanwhile, here's a picture from AFP of the runaway oil drilling platform that collided with Mobile's Cochrane-Africatown USA Bridge, which is closed until further notice:

Matt Drachenberg at overtaken by events writes via e-mail:

My wife is going insane. Her mom is 82, recovering from a broken pelvis and stuck in the Jefferson Healthcare nursing home in Metairie. I cannot find anything about the conditions in the area (it's around Ochsner). If any of your contacts have any info, I would be eternally grateful.

If anyone knows anything, please leave it in comments. Thanks!

Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco on Larry King Live: "We believe we've lost some lives." No idea how many, but various reports here and there.

NOLA: "unconfirmed reports of dead bodies in floodwaters."

Also: "Gentilly, Treme, Bywater and the 9th Ward [have] been swallowed."

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, "we have a report that portions of U.S. 90 are under seven feet of water." Evacuees are being told NOT to come back.

Here's a summary of the Mississippi damage: "Hurricane Katrina brought catastrophic damage from the Coast to Hattiesburg. Gulfport Fire Chief Pat Sullivan said downtown buildings were 'imploding' or collapsing, particularly in the 19th street area. Coastwide there were reports of homes and buildings knocked off their foundations by storm surges as high as 28 feet."

Let's be clear about something. I don't want to hear any of this crap about how the media and local officials overhyped this storm. First of all, the damage along the Mississippi coastline was catastrophic! The storm surge was worse than Camille, and basically, entire sections of coastline are GONE. And that was from a weakened Katrina!!! Secondly, New Orleans was hit very, very hard, at least in terms of property damage. (It's too soon to say what the human toll will be.) But it could have been much, much worse -- unimaginably worse -- and that is not just hype.

There are two reasons New Orleans was not destroyed (but merely devastated), two reasons this was not an apocalyptic lost-city-of-Atlantis scenario (but merely a really bad flood). Those reasons are: 1) a last-minute northward turn, and 2) a last-minute sudden weakening the likes of which I have rarely seen before. (Yes, several recent hurricanes have weakened as they approached the Gulf coast, but this one really weakened FAST, particularly the left-hand side of the eyewall. And look at all the damage it still did!!) I watched both things happen in the wee hours of this morning, and believe me, neither of them were pre-ordained to happen. Both of them happened in the final 6-9 hours before landfall, and if either one of them had not happened, we'd be looking at a very different situation right now. We wouldn't be rescuing people from their rooftops because the rooftops would be submerged, along with the rest of the city up to 20-30 feet. This is not a hypothetical scenario. IT ALMOST HAPPENED.

Anyone who suggests that this storm was "overhyped" is contributing to a DEADLY CULTURE OF COMPLACENCY that will dissuade people from evacuating the next time around. For there will be a next time around. New Orleans was spared "The Big One" today -- this was a big one, but not the Big One -- but someday, the worst will happen. It is inevitable; it's a matter of when, not if. THIS SHOULD BE A WAKE-UP CALL, not an excuse to become complacent and arrogant. New Orleans should learn from this storm and actually come up with a viable plan to deal with a direct hit from Cat. 4-5 hurricane, which this ultimately was not. Shore up the levees, wall off a portion of the city, whatever -- something has to be done. And sitting around, carping about how this storm was "overhyped" is obscenely counterproductive.

Here's a Katrina missing persons board.

Woohoo! :) I was also interviewed by a USA Today reporter earlier. And 26,051 unique hits today, and counting. Wow. Thanks for reading, everybody!

From Yahoo! News Photos:














More here.

I'm back. Katrina is now a tropical storm, but it's still causing all sorts of problems, particularly torrential rain and tornadoes -- at least 15 so far, and that number is sure to rise, according to The Weather Channel. Thankfully, she's moving pretty fast, and is now over the Alabama-Mississippi border.

New Orleans evacuees are being told not to return for at least a week.

The Red Cross will, of course, be busy for months helping victims of this disaster. You can donate here.

UPDATE: Or the Salvation Army, if your prefer.

...but I need to take a little break. I've been up all night and morning, and I'm having trouble keeping my eyes open at this point.

I'll try to keep my nap brief. In the mean time, Metroblogging New Orleans has a good summary of known damage in the Big Easy. And of course, there are a ton of links, including other blogs, at left.

P.S. 14,416 hits today. 3,269 in the last hour alone. Crazy. By the time I wake up, I'll have a new daily traffic record (old mark: 15,931). Thanks, everyone! And stay tuned; I'll be back. :)

Fox News just had an awesome picture of the damage to the Superdome, as seen from the outside. Wow! It looks like crap!



More awesome/horrifying pictures from New Orleans and elsewhere are emerging, and many others will no doubt follow. For examaple: wow! And wow again. More here.

About that Tulane-Southern Miss football game, scheduled for next Sunday at USM... well, Hattiesburg, Mississippi (home of USM) is about to get slammed by the right-front quadrant of what is still a Category 3 hurricane. (Radar.)

I'm not clear on exactly how bad/widespread the situation described below is... but there are people on top of their roofs in New Orleans waiting to be rescued, according to Fox. Apparently this is northeast of New Orleans. (St. Bernard Parish?) They had someone on the phone, describing the scene:

"South of Lake Pontchartrain area completely flooded," says caption on screen.

"Everything is underwater, pretty much. ... There's whitecaps on the streets. It is absolutely up to the windows, covering some windows on the first floor."

"The water is steadily on the rise."

"We're looking at trucks, U-Hauls that are almost completely covered, to give you an idea of how high this water is. This is what a lot of people have feared their whole lives."

UPDATE: Micki outlines what the mayor said on The Weather Channel:

Reports of about 150 people on roofs. Getting average of 5 calls/minute. 20 buildings have collapsed, but can't confirm if people were inside them.

They asked where he rode out the storm. He started out in City Hall, but started swaying too much. Went to a 'Major Hotel' nearby and was on the 27th floor. Then he went to the 3rd and 4th floor of the hotel after it expirienced swaying on the higher floors.

Side streets impassable from flooding, fallen trees and fallen utility poles, but "nowhere near as bad, at least in this part of New Orleans, as what had been feared," says CNN's John Zarrella west of downtown (Tulane area). Says the windows of the Tulane hospital were blown out.

Bill Crews, in St. Amant, LA (between Baton Rouge and New Orleans), writes via e-mail:

I'm still here in So. LA. Current situation is wind, wind & more wind w/ some rain. The neighborhood is now running on portable generators, so we have cold beer. A few shingles missing and some downed ornamental trees but nothing serious. The wind is at a steady 40-45 mph w/gust up to 60-65 mph. We've heard reports of wide-spread devastation from NOLA to the Miss. Gulf Coast; our prayers are with them.

Reportedly, the key to preventing a Lake Pontchartrain flood is for the water levels to remain below 8.0 feet. (I am not certain of this, but it's what I've been told.) As of 10:19, the level was 6.75 feet at Midlake. However, according to the storm surge gauge at Bayou LaBranche, which is attached to the lake, the water level appears to have plateaued.

Source: TWC.

Do I hear $75/barrel? Do I hear $80?

This NOLA report is about an hour old, but I hadn't seen it before:

9:34 - Reports of widespread flooding now, although not at the doomsday scenario levels. But we've got several hours to go before we've seen the worst past. Scanner traffic is busy with calls of rising water, including 18 inches and rising against the levee in the French Quarter. Dispatchers questioning officers on the scene, trying to determine if there is a break in the river levee, or if water is pouring over the top. Independently, NOLA has received a flooding alert for the French Market area.

Fairly heavy street flooding in front and behind the Times-Picayune . . . water appears about knee deep, whipped by the steady wind into whitecaps and breakers. Water is hubcap deep on the furthest vehicles in the employee parking lot, and rising quickly.

Previously, the NOLA blog reported that "the side of the Times-Picayune building facing the Pontchartrain Expressway has taken enough damage to cause some extra discomfort among those sheltered here. Windows blown out in the third floor executive suite have lead to flooding through the ceiling into the company cafeteria."

My dad sends along this summary of what's happening with TWC's Jim Cantore, which I had largely missed:

Jim Cantore & crew are stuck inside a Veterans Retirement Home at the Gulfport shore where the building, thought safe at 27 feet above sea level, is flooding. TWC crew is heave-ho'ing sandbags and boards etc. trying to keep the stormsurge at bay.

Cantore is on the air now, talking about how they've also been busy evacuating the vets off the first floor, helping get all the medicines, etc. A little unexpected community-service project for Cantore & co. :) Good for them.

The retirement home is essentially now completely surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico, which has surged far inland. (The home, a concrete building that is built to withstand winds of 180 mph, was originally a half-mile inland.) The entire first floor is underwater. However, Cantore asserts that they are safe, albeit stuck. Cantore is amazed, says he's never seen a storm surge like this, etc.

TWC's Steve Lyons just said that Pass Christian, Mississippi -- where Camille made landfall -- got one of the highest storm surges from Katrina, between 22 and 27 feet. "Might have been even higher than Hurricane Camille," he said, though he added that that's unconfirmed. I'm afraid this is probably bad news for pkahle's mother's house.

His mom isn't at the house, though; she's in New Orleans, "at Jackson and Prytania, and says the wind's bad, and there are some leaks, but the water's not that bad. Probably up over the curb, but not onto the Neutral Ground on Jackson Ave."

Meanwhile... over in Alabama... Downtown Mobile is flooded, according to Mike Seidel. It's not clear if Frederick's storm surge record of 12-13 feet has been or will be broken.

Significant flooding in St. Bernard Parish, according to The Weather Channel.

Stu Ostro says the worst time for northerly winds blowing the water out of Lake Pontchartrain into the city is right now, and for maybe the next 30-60 minutes. After that, the winds will change direction as the storm moves away. (It's a very good thing that it sped up overnight.)

From WDSU: "9:25 a.m.: East Jefferson Hospital Also Flooding: There are also reports of water on the lower floor of East Jefferson Hospital. The flooding may be related to unconfirmed reports of levee breaks along industrial canals in the area."

"9:45 a.m.: Homeowner Says Water Rising: Chris Robinson says the water is rising in his New Orleans-area home, but he's 'holding off on breaking through the roof' to escape. Robinson is keeping a hammer, ax and crowbar at the ready, though. He spoke by cellphone as water sent by Hurricane Katrina flooded parts of the city. -- Associated Press"

"9:47 a.m.: Boats In Buildings In Gulfport: In Gulfport, Miss., a fire chief says there are 'boats that have gone into buildings.' Waves are also crashing over the seawalls in Gulf Shores, Ala. -- Associated Press"

An oil tanker which had previously broken free of its moorings in Mobile Bay has now been secured, according to TWC's Mike Seidel. Officials aren't sure if any oil leaked.

Katrina is now down to Category 3 with 125 mph as it makes yet another landfall near Anslee (sp?), Mississippi, according to Steve Lyons.

That's proving to be the big story of this hurricane.

"The levees will hold. The main levee protection system will hold ... But we do have a freshwater flooding problem. A creeping flooding problem." --Mike Majonos, FEMA disaster inspector, on CNN

(That's a rush quote, may not be 100% accurate, but that's the gist.)

On the other hand...

A LEVEE BREACH OCCURRED ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL AT TENNESSEE STREET. 3 TO 8 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BREACH...LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARABI AND 9TH WARD OF NEW ORLEANS.

Also, I'm not sure if this refers to the same thing, but according to commenter Ben, "Mississippi River levee in the french quarter has been breached."

Like me, Josh Britton is blogging a mile a minute. Unlike me, Josh is in Louisiana (Baton Rouge, specifically). I just added him to the "local bloggers" list. Speaking of which, be sure to check my list of links at left, including the bloggers and media resources!

Anyway, Josh just posted something I also heard, that "CNN's Jeanne Meserve just reported that the white outer membrane of the Superdome's roof is 'shredded.'" He also writes, "Local news channel WBRZ is reporting that conditions may begin improving in New Orleans within an hour, as the western eyewall is currently passing within 15 miles of the city. Right now, though, conditions are very severe."

Another local blogger, Matt of overtaken by events, writes, "I think I can safely speak for most people when I say, 'Attention Media People! Go inside, we aren't impressed with your bravery, we just think you're stupid to be standing outside while large pieces of buildings and trees are flying around.'" Heh.

I think that's what Fox News just said...

NOLA reports:

During a morning teleconference, emergency preparedness officials from across southeast Louisiana reported flooding, building collapses, power outages and fires.

Here's a run-down of what they reported:

- In New Orleans, water topped a levee along the Industrial Canal. The city's 911 emergency system was out of service and Charity Hospital was on emergency power and windows had been blown out on five floors. The Police Department was operating on a backup power system. Three to four feet of water was reported on St. Claude Avenue at Jackson Barracks. And a 20-foot tidal surge knocked out four pumping stations; only one was able to get back into service.

Also in New Orleans, a bridge connecting a parking garage to Memorial Hospital collapsed.

- In Jefferson Parish, there was a report of a building collapse in the 200 block of Wright Avenue in Terrytown. Parish officials could not provide details other than to say they had been notified that people were inside the building.

- In St. Charles Parish, significant flooding was reported on the east bank.

- In Arabi, up to 8 feet of water was reported, and people are climbing into their attics to escape the flooding. "We're telling people to get into the attic and take something with them to cut through the roof if necessary,'' said Col. Richard Baumy of the St. Bernard Parish Sheriff's Office. "It's the same scenario as Betsy.''

Baumy said 100-plus mph winds were preventing rescue efforts.

At Bayou Bienvenue, water levels were reported at 9 1/2 feet, almost twice normal levels.

- In St. John, massive power outages are reported.

- In Gramercy, there was extensive damage to the town's 1 1/2-year-old fire station.

- Terrebonne Parish reported a fatality from a heart attack.

Also, there are massive power outages, unsurprisingly.

Fox News: "Some New Orleans homes have flooded to the ceiling, and that could be just the beginning of it."

There has been another levee breach at Industrial Canal, according to a commenter who is watching WWL.

Also, there are apparently some serious problems with high-rise hotels.

"We have reports saying total structural failure in the greater New Orleans area of a lot of structures." --Fox News

Ten people are trapped in a collapsed apartment complex in Harvey, LA (in Jefferson Parish). Also, a woman and her three children trapped in her attic in eastern New Orleans (9th Ward), which is pretty much in the eyewall right now.

"The pumps on both sides of the river are failing now."

From the WDSU storm blog: "There are reports of an electrical fire at a home in Covington this morning. Unfortunately, firefighters were unable to respond because of high winds." ... "There are reports of trees down around WDSU-TV. Staff at the station also report parts of roofs coming off buildings" ... "The storm is hammering the Gulf Coast with huge waves and tree-bending winds. Exploding transformers lit up the predawn sky in Mobile, Ala. Tree limbs litter the roads and blinding rain has whipped up the sand on deserted Gulfport, Miss., beaches." ... "Heavy rains associated with Hurricane Katrina are sending floodwaters into the first floor of Ocshner Hospital. Patients are being moved to the upper floors of the building."

NOLA: "Windows have blown out in the West Jefferson Medical Center office building. Because of that, patients in the West Jefferson Medical Center are being evacuated from their rooms into hallways, according to Jennifer Steel, hospital spokeswoman. There were no injuries as a result of the broken windows."

Meanwhile, a roof in Gulfport, MS has slammed into an apartment building, according to Fox News. A rescue is ongoing.

According to commenters, The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore is at a hotel in Biloxi that's 27 feet above sea level -- and it has 4 feet of storm surge in its parking lot. Now that's a storm surge! The bug-eyed hurricane veteran declared, "I've never seen this before...basically we are part of the Gulf of Mexico right now."

Fox News is showing footage of a Flying J sign breaking apart in Gulfport.

CNN's Gary Tuchman in Gulfport: "We are watching the city, parts of it, be destroyed before our eyes." Many buildings collapsed, etc.

Here's a photo of Lake Pontchartrain flooding a road on the north shore, in Lacombe, LA.

And here are some more details on what's happening in New Orleans's 9th Ward:

On an early morning radio interview, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said that water was coming over the levee system in the Lower 9th Ward, especially in the Florida Avenue area. Nagin said that the Florida Avenue pumping station was not working, and there were unconfirmed reports of people standing on their roofs.

"There is a significant amount of water in the 9th Ward," Nagin said.

Nagin said that city officials had reports of at least five fires in the city and one collapsed building. The locations of the fires and the building were not specified.

Meanwhile, a 9th Ward resident reported that houses were taking in water on Reynes Street at the Claiborne Avenue bridge.

Not all of the 9th Ward, however, appeared to have water problems.

A group of about a half dozen families, some with severe hardships, were riding out the storm near the corner of Feliciana and Marais streets. Among those who stayed was a mother with a son paralyzed in a recent shooting and a 56-year-old man with a broken leg.

"The wind's pushing pretty hard here," the man, Paul Garrett, said in a 7:15 a.m. phone interview. "But it doesn't seem to be destroying any rooftops. We're doing OK."

Meanwhile, LSU researchers have reduced their damage estimates for New Orleans, in light of Katrina's new track. It could still be bad (indeed, it clearly already is), but not as bad.

UPDATE: This tidal gauge in Bayou LaBranche, which is attached to Lake Pontchartrain, appears to be live and functioning, and both the water levels and winds are rising steeply.

According to WeatherBlog: "C. Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans reports on MSNBC that 'numerous fires' and 'building collapses' have been reported around the city. Levee system in the 9th ward compromised and water is spilling over."

CNN reporter seeing daylight. "Keeps getting larger and larger." "One section of the Superdome roof may soon peel away from the actual stadium."

Probably one-twelfth of the roof. [CORRECTION: Brian Williams's pictures indicate it is only a small portion of the roof. There is some confusion about what the CNN reporter said or meant re: "one-twelfth of the roof."] [UPDATE: It's a "3-by-5-foot chunk," according to the WDSU Katrina Blog.]

Authorities are moving people to a different part of the Dome, getting underneath the terrace level, moving away from the open area. "Rain and wind is now starting to pour into the Superdome."

No panic, but "obvious concern." "Everyone is just kind of looking up in awe, that this is supposed to be the safest place in New Orleans, and now the Superdome is giving way to this Superstorm."

"There's nowhere for these folks to go. This is where they're going to be, whether the roof comes off this dome or not."

And New Orleans is still about an hour away from its closest approach to the eyewall.

Brian Williams, MSNBC: "Katrina has opened at least two holes along one seam in the roof." "Just about six minutes ago, the wind peeled one section and now it has opened a second section." Rain is pouring in through the open section, and inside the whole Dome now there is mist swirling around. But "it is not as if the structural integrity of the Superdome is in any danger."

UPDATE, 9:17 AM: "The National Guard told reporters at a news conference in Baton Rouge, La., that the holes in the roof at the Superdome are only minor. A representative of the National Guard blamed the strong winds for ripping the fabric, but he said there were no structural problems with the roof, and evacuees in the affected areas were moved," according to the WDSU Katrina Blog.

This Bourbon Street webcam appears to be live. Things look rather wet. But not underwater, which is good.

So says John Zarrella on CNN. Uh-oh. Not sure which levee or in which place.

From NOLA: "Building collapse reported on Laurel near Washington in the Garden District . . . possibly with people inside. Emergency workers trying to see if they can get a National Guard deuce-and-a-half to get through the storm for possible rescue."

Also: "Listening to reports of windows blowing out . . . most frantic calls about downtown hotels, where a number of windows have blown out. Guests huddling in halls. Water blowing in through windows, leaking through ceilings."

CNN now reporting on Superdome leak.

The eye is filling in a bit on radar, but it's also wobbling ever-so-slightly to the left... does Katrina have one last surprise in store for New Orleans?

According to a commenter watching local New Orleans TV:

WDSU's reporter in the Superdome is reporting that at least one section of the Dome is leaking and getting worse. According to the phone report, he couldn't see sky but they felt increasing rain falling on them and were planning to move to a more protected area around the concession stands.

Meanwhile, the winds have picked up substantially in Baton Rouge, according to Anderson Cooper.

From NOLA:

As dawn approached Monday, the story was the same across metro New Orleans: Heavy wind gusts, soaking rain, some reports of damage, and widespread reports of power outages.

Damage was expected to be significant. As one caller told WWL radio early Monday: "The smell of pine is in the air,'' referring to the snapping of pine trees on the north shore.

Also:

Even as bands of heavy rain accompanied by 100-mph winds moved into the New Orleans area this morning, bending trees in half and plucking camper tops from pickup trucks, the National Hurricane Center warned that Hurricane Katrina still has its biggest punch to come. ...

National Hurricane Center lead forecaster Martin Nelson ... warned that slight wobbles left or right as the eye moves northward will make little difference in the height of storm surge south and east of the city and in Lake Pontchartrain, because the storm already has been pushing surge water ahead of it into Louisiana's southeastern wetlands and the lake for so long.

"There will be storm surge flooding to the west of the eye because of the packing of water that's occurred as Katrina drives to the coast," he said. Once over land, the western side will see that water rapidly exit, driven by the southern, counterclockwise winds on that side of the storm. ...

Watching the progress of the storm from Jefferson Parish's emergency operations center in Marrero, Walter Maestri sounded an early note of optimism at 3:45 a.m., as Katrina jogged a bit off course. But he also cautioned that conditions could deteriorate as the day progresses.

"It looks like we've done fairly well," he said. "We have had no reports of serious wind damage, and we don't see any indication of tidal surge problems."

"But of course it's still really early. The next four to five hours will tell the tale."

Highway 90 in Gulfport, Mississippi is now underwater due to the storm surge, according to Jim Cantore.

The storm surge is also rapidly increasing at Ocean Springs, MS, which is just off to the east of Gulfport. Likewise in Waveland, MS, just off to the west.

Meanwhile, "we're not too sure what's happening with Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans," according to Stu Ostro. But TWC has lowered its storm surge estimate for N.O. and the lake from 16-22 feet to 10-15 feet.

Now TWC is saying downtown Mobile is going to flood.

"Pascagoula, Mississippi civil defense reportered a wind gust to 113 mph within the past hour at their office," according to the NHC 7:00 AM update. This has quickly gone from being primarily a New Orleans issue to being primarily a Mississippi/Alabama issue.

Barring a major last-minute wobble, it does now definitely appear that Hurricane Katrina's eye and eyewall will pass just to the east of New Orleans, thus sparing the city the worst of the storm. Radar here.

Whether the storm surge and waves will nevertheless be enough to overwhelm the levees, and if so, to what extent, remains to be seen. But compared to the general despair of 24 and even 12 (hell, 6) hours ago, things are definitely looking up for the possibility that New Orleans as we know it will survive to see another day.

If the worst is averted, hopefully this will serve as a wake-up call, and not an excuse to become complacent and react slowly and skeptically to future storm warnings.

Power (and thus air conditioning) is out at the Superdome, according to a commenter, citing local media in Baton Rouge.

Meanwhile, in Gulfport, the water is rising substantially.

Landfall officially occurred at 6:10 AM, according to TWC.

Confirming the weakness of Katrina's western eyewall, the highest wind gust recorded thus far at Grand Isle is 77 mph -- which, while not exactly a pleasant day at the park, is also not indicative of being in (or very near) the eyewall of Category 4 hurricane!

I'm really confused. How can a hurricane have a minimum central pressure of 917 mb -- lower than Andrew! -- and yet be this disorganized? How can Katrina weaken as much as she has, without the pressure rising more steeply? Is there something I'm not understanding here? Because this seems bizarre to me.

P.S. In the peanut gallery on Dr. Jeff Masters's blog, a couple of commenters are crying "conspiracy," noting that the sudden weakening began during the nightly satellite "blackout," and suggesting that perhaps the government secretly weakened the hurricane somehow:

I BELIEVE THE DOD KNOWS WHY THE ENTIRE NW PORTION OF KATRINA'S EYEWALL DISAPEARED IN 1 RADAR LOOP JUST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL ...

funny how she was so healthy prior to the black out. thats when they went in so they could not be noticed and blamed if it went wrong and caused her to explode in intensity ...

Katrina looks less Impressive now than Ivan Did prior to making landfall. She Will Begin to Fall Apart Now. The US Govt Will Never Allow A CAT5 STORM TO MAKE LANDFALL EVER AGAIN NEAR A METRO AREA. She Will Dramatically Weaken and Make Landfall In A relatively Unpopulated Area E of The NHC Projected Path. For The History Books few Things Will add up about This Storm. The Wind \Pressure Difference,The last Minute Jog To The E, Or The Dissappearence of the Strongest Portion Of The Storm Completely Off Radar In One Loop All During The Satellight Blackout just hours Before Making landfall. Very Interesting Stuff. Even More Interesting will Be The "EXPLANATIONS" We will Hear Tommorrow. By The Way I wonder How Many Cat 4 Storms ever had Central Pressure's in The 26's While Still Being Listed As A Cat4 . A -100 mb difference Exists Between Cat4 Hurricane Charley (145 MPH) And Cat4 Katrina Right Now. A Cat4 With 1/2 OF An Eyewall and Pressures in the 26'S. I Hope Tommorrow The Proper Questions are Asked. ...

TRUST ME THE KAT WAS DE-CLAWED. And We Should All Be Greatful.

Obviously, I don't buy into the conspiracy theory. As one skeptic responded, "If they had that technology, why would they wait so long? ... Just because we don't understand it yet doesn't make it a secret government plot. Occam's razor, dude." Heh. Anyway, I just found the conspiracy theory rather entertaining. :)

Here are some facts about past government attempts to control or weaken hurricanes, all of which have spectacularly failed.

Sean Rajki, whose wife Mary is a nurse on duty in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at West Jefferson Medical Center on the west bank of the Mississippi River, reports via e-mail:

I just heard from Mary. (5:12 AM) ... She is ok, but the hospital is on its last leg of backup power (how absurdly inadequate?). They heard that at East Jefferson, in Metairie, across the river from them, that there was flooding on the lowest level of the hospital. Confirmed on WWL TV.

They are all - both shifts - heading to their unit (NICU) and will continue to work. Some of the babies, two I think, are on ventilators, so they will have to be hand-bagged from the moment the power goes out until...

She said the National Guard is at the hospital, so that if evacuation needs to happen they have some help. She seemed reassured that the Guard is there.

Also, she said that some people reported some scary noises coming through the building. Hopefully just the noise of the storm.

I am amazed she called me on her cell phone! Told her to turn it off after we hang up to conserve her battery.

Pray.

Earlier, he wrote: "I am stuck at home in Baton Rouge. My parents are here, but the full scale of what is about to hit New Orleans with my wife there in the way is quite a burden. She is the love of my life and I can't even think about losing her. By the way, she is three months pregnant with our first child. I know this will be bad no matter what- Katrina isn't going to turn around and go home. It would take a miracle today to keep all the people safe. Please pray for Mary and the others."

The Weather Channel and CNN are officially declaring "landfall":





CORRECTION: Stu Ostro said it's not quite officially "landfall" yet.

There has not been a new radar image from the New Orleans radar for 40 minutes. So, that may be all she wrote, as far as that radar site goes.

The Mobile radar doesn't give us as good a view of the eyewall structure, but at least the images are current. Landfall is imminent. Here's an extreme close-up.

UPDATE: The New Orleans radar is back! It just took a little hiatus, I guess. :)

CNN's Anderson Cooper is reporting that the Mississippi River has risen significantly in Baton Rouge in the last half-hour. Can that be from the storm-surging Gulf waters, flowing upstream from the Delta, which Katrina is currently pounding? If so, surely the river is rising much more in New Orleans, which is further downstream.

Meanwhile, the winds have gotten "much worse in the last 20 minutes" in Jefferson Parish, with doors blowing out and such, according to WWL.

Lisa Boone reports in again from near Gulfport, MS, via e-mail:

We have just lost power at 4:30. Fortunately the generator kicked on and so far so good. We are getting tropical storm force gusts and have had several inches of rain. The local TV coverage now says that the storm will hit us at category 3 strength. Strong category 3 one presumes. Still predicting a very large tidal surge. They have shown pictures of the water rising at the beach.

You might want to add their stream to your list, they are: http://www.wlox.com

We've had a couple tornado warnings set to expire within minutes now.

Things will still get much worse before they get better. But they are now saying it won't be another Camille and for people who rode out Camille and lived through the aftermath, that is a huge relief.

I can't figure how to get a direct link to the WLOX stream, but if you go to their homepage, you can get it.

I wish there was a storm surge gauge at the mouth of the Mississippi River, because the right-front quadrant of the eyewall is absolutely pummelling that area right now. I'll tell you one thing: water is definitely not flowing out of the Mississippi into the Gulf right now. Radar here.

The eye will come ashore over those Mississippi Delta swamplands very shortly. But, hmm, is that really considered a "landfall"? It's barely "land"...

Here's an extreme close-up of the eye. It looks like the eyewall is trying to close itself back off, but it's running out of time over the water.

It's still confoundingly wobbling left, right, left, right...

UPDATE: Yup... Katrina is definitely trying to pull herself back together at the last minute. Check out the infrared and water vapor satellite loops.

Now it looks like it wants to wobble NNE, in the last 20 minutes or so. Argh. This is a very close call.

"It's going to be very close as to whether the surge will be high enough to over-top those levees." --Richard Knabb, National Hurricane Center meteorologist, on CNN.

UPDATE: The 4:00 AM discussion is out, and it emphasizes that Katrina should not be underestimated, even as it weakens a bit:

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible right up until landfall occurs. However...it appears that Katrina will make landfall as a category 4 hurricane later this morning. The cloud pattern in satellite imagery has eroded on the west side due to dry air entrainment...and the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest in radar imagery. However...the water remains quite warm underneath the center...and convection can easily redevelop and the eyewall close off again before landfall occurs. Some disruption of the circulation will occur once the center moves over southeastern Louisiana. However...the forecast track keeps the eye close enough to warm water near the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and even contains a rare 200 mb indraft anticyclone to the east near Tampa Bay. The combination of the outflow regime and the close proximity to warm water may be enough to keep Katrina a major hurricane when it reaches the Louisiana-Mississippi border area this afternoon. Just because Katrina is no longer a catgeory 5 hurricane does not mean that extensive damage and storm surge flooding will not occur. This is still an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly hurricane!

Pressure now up to 917 mb, winds down to 150 mph, according to the 4:00 AM advisory. Still waiting for the new discussion.

Looking again at the radar... this time superimposing the 2:53 AM eye on top of the 3:47 AM radar, and then drawing arrows extrapolating from the eye's movement during that 54-minute period... if anything, Katrina appears to be moving more to the west, not less...



It could yet wobble back north, but man, it's going to be a close-run thing.

ParadeCAM in New Orleans is still working, and not surprisingly, it's looking very windy and rainy.

I know it's dangerous to read too much into radar "wobbles" ... but frankly, at this point, a wobble here or there could make the difference between a catastrophic flood and, well, a bad-but-not-catastrophic flood. So I took a look at the last 15 frames (i.e., 77 minutes) from the New Orleans composite radar, and I superimposed the 3:26 AM eye on top of the 2:09 AM radar image, and then drew lines to figure out what direction the eye has been moving during that time period. Here's what I came up with:



And it's not like most of that westerly component occurred early in the 77-minute period... there has definitely been a continued westerly component to the motion in recent radar frames. So I think it's too early to say that the eye and eyewall will pass east of New Orleans.

UPDATE: CNN's meteorologist just said, "New Orleans may be back into the eyewall landfall with that little [westward] wobble." Personally I think it's more like, "New Orleans always was in the eyewall landfall zone, but we briefly misinterpreted a northward wobble as indicating otherwise."

In his final update of the night, Steve Gregory agrees with me about Katrina's weakening trend:

LATEST storm surge calculations from the USGS Hazards site are calling for an 18-22ft storm surge ... I BELIEVE THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO HIGH.

The New Orleans levees are likely to be breached - but not of Catastrophic proportions -- but they will be breached, causing major flooding.

HOWEVER, the odds are going up that the eye will pass just east of downtown New Orleans. Satellite imagery clearly shows a loss of outflow and eroding away of the deep layer moisture as the TROF from the west is making a significant impact on the storm, and a change in heading to NNE (010 deg) that I do not believe is a wobble.

Positive note -- MANY of these areas are reporting water temps in the 83-85 deg range, down considerably from the high 80's this morning. This will help slow any potential intensification.

My current, and last forecast until morning -- Landfall will result in 120mph sustained winds and gusts to 150mph -- below hurricane Camille. This will occur just ENE of the eye wall -- so the worst WIND damage will be experienced Slidell to Gulfport; with the smaller communities east of a line from EAST New Orleans southward to Woodland.

Storm surge will be under around 15-18 feet across Lake Borgne, and 16-20 feet near the LA/MS state line.

I'm not sure about the NNE motion (I'm still seeing some NNW components to the motion on radar), but the rest of his forecast sounds right to me, especially the 120mph sustained winds.

Katrina is wobbling to the north-northwest again on the last several radar frames. So much for "due north."

I'm recalling something I wrote on Friday: "If Katrina gets close enough, a last-minute 'wobble' could save, or doom, the Big Easy."

The Weather Channel says the hurricane hunter recon aircraft confirm what the radar is saying, that the south and southwest side of the eyewall is "a bit ragged."

Frankly, I don't think this is really a 155 mph hurricane anymore. I could be wrong -- and remember, I'm not a metereologist, just an amateur hurricane buff -- but I really think this thing is weaker than the NHC is saying. (Naturally, they don't want people to let down their guard.) The last-minute weakening processes that we all hoped for are indeed happening. Dry air, shear, eyewall replacement... whatever it is, some factors have conspired to disrupt Katrina's circulation. Hopefully that trend will continue -- remember, the eyewall has several more hours before it reaches heavily populated areas, so if the weakening trend continues, that would be excellent news, in terms of the amount of wind damage that will occur. It will still be severe, but not the kind of catastrophic, Andrew-type, everything-gets-flattened damage that the NWS described earlier today. (By way of comparison, here's what Andrew looked like on radar when it hit.)

However, the bigger concern here is the flooding of New Orleans, and from everything I've read, even a Category 3 hurricane would be enough to top the levees. Moreover, the weakening of the west side of the storm won't help with that, because it's the easterly winds ahead of the storm -- on the east side -- that will do most of the work in flooding Lake Pontchartrain. So unless the experts who studies these scenarios are wrong, I think New Orleans is still going to flood.

Again, this is just one amateur weather buff's opinion, and I could be wrong.

The Hurricane Center is now saying that the eye is moving due north. If that holds, it looks like the downtown area of New Orleans would maybe be hit by the far western side of the eyewall, depending on exactly how wide the eyewall is (of which I am not certain). A north-northeasterly turn would really help.



Again, remember, the winds and rain around the eyewall are undoubtedly more severe than they appear on radar right now. I believe that the radar has trouble penetrating the eyewall, and it has generally been my experience that hurricanes often don't look as impressive on radar as they really are.

Latest radar here.

The storm surge at Grand Isle is spiking rapidly, and the Lake Pontchartrain levels are also continuing to rapidly rise (see also here).

N.O. Pundit muses:

There is a Schrodinger's Cat quality to watching the spinning red ball: does the New Orleans that I know even exist right now, hours before landfall? Surely the buildings are there right now and the people who remained are fine right now. But in a sense, some of those buildings have already fallen and some of those people have already met tragedy. Indeterminacy tonight, determinacy tomorrow.

I am in a stunned fog: resigned not that my life will change in the morning, but that my life has already changed. Perhaps a little, perhaps a lot. But even if I have a relatively intact house to return to, there will be friends who don't, and there may be friends who aren't.

Commingled with my resignation is an optimism and resilience. Whatever happens, well, happens. Wherever my starting point happens to be tomorrow is just that: a starting point. Not without pain, not without tears, not without doubts. A fine place to take a step forward.

Yes, I am praying and hoping for miracle, a weakening, an Eastern deviation, and that may yet come. Do you believe in miracles? I do.

In other news, here's a picture of people packed inside the Superdome:

Wow... the west side of the storm really does look very ragged all of a sudden.



Is that a patch of dry air? Caused by the counter-clockwise flow blowing off the land perhaps? This could help New Orleans at least a bit, if it holds (and if the satellite picture is representative of the wind speeds at the surface)... though I'm suspecting the city will still flood, as the storm surge is coming in from the east, where the storm still looks very strong... so I don't want to get people's hopes up, but this is at least a sliver of hope.

UPDATE: Yup, dry air. Check out the water vapor view:



Here's the latest view. How deeply entrained into the circulation that patch of dry air gets could be crucial. Remember, New Orleans figures to be (probably) on the left-hand side of the eye.

UPDATE: As as 2:00 AM, Katrina is down to Category 4, with 155 mph sustained winds. That's the very top end of Category 4 status. But could it be lower? We're waiting on new data from recon plane.

The Weather Channel guys says there is "erosion of the cloud cover on the western side of the storm... but the radar not really reflecting that."

Here's another water vapor view:



Again, don't get your hopes up. This hurricane is still going to be a very, very big problem.

A college-football blogger, "Anonymous Sportaholic," who also happens to be a doctor, is stuck in New Orleans, staying behind to care for those who cannot leave. (Hat tip: CFR.)

The New York Times has a slideshow of good pictures of yesterday's preparations and evacuations, including this dramatic shot of a deserted French Quarter on quite possibly its last evening of existence as we've known it:

As of 1:00 AM, Katrina's eye is 75 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and 135 miles south-southeast of New Orleans. A wind gust of 101 mph has been reported at Southwest Pass, LA.

The eye is now becoming visible on the short-range radar from New Orleans.

It's probably not a good idea to refer to the people in the Superdome as being "in the same boat." Just saying.

I've moved most of today's posts onto Page 2, so that the homepage will load faster as I continue hurricane-blogging through the night. (Automatic archiving is not working because of the in-limbo status of my blog.)

They're already getting 90 mph wind gusts in New Orleans, according to WWL.

Reading what Dr. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory are saying, it sounds like Katrina has probably weakened to a Category 4 hurricane, though it hasn't officially been downgraded. That's good news, but New Orleans is going to be devastated either way, as well as whoever is in the path of the eye and particularly the right-front quadrant.

This tidal gauge, located on a bayou attached to Lake Pontchartrain (map here), appears to have live data, updated every 12 minutes or so. In addition to the water level, it shows the wind speed and barometric pressure, which are rapidly increasing and decreasing, respectively.

There are still people on the roads. They're talking on WWL about what to do if you're stuck on the highway -- under what circumstances you should "ditch your car" and under what circumstances you shouldn't, whether you should seek shelter at a random building off the nearest exit, etc.

This is damn mayor's fault.

P.S. Also, there is a disturbing amount of price gouging going on, apparently.

There are between 26,000 and 30,000 people at the Superdome, according to what sounds like a well-sourced report on WWL's live streaming video feed.

Incidentally, I've updated the links to the feeds from both WWL and WDSU.

As of 9:00 PM, the water level in Lake Pontchartrain was rising steeply.



I guess the gauge has shut down now, or something. This gauge appears to have some more recent data, possibly even live... I'm not sure.

Discussing the Superdome in comments on a previous post, Todd observes, "I can not even begin to imagine what a hellhole that place will soon become." Paul at Wizbang is imagining:

It's a near certainty the electricity will go out about midday Monday. The Dome has backup power but it is only for lighting - no environmental controls - and the backup lighting is not full power. The Dome is about 20 stories high, but people will be scattered all thru it.

If the worst happens - and at this point it seems implausible that it won't - the bottom 2 stories will fill with water. Dirty nasty foul water full of chemicals and raw sewerage. Further the bathroom facilities are only expected to function for the first day.

So in rough terms, 40,000+ people will be trapped in a building with no plumbing, little light and no air conditioning. The temps after the storm rolls thru will probably be in the low 90s. Considerably hotter in the building.

There is an elevated paved deck that surrounds the Dome. It will most probably be above water but inaccessible until probably daylight Tuesday. Once the people can get out to the deck, they will still be trapped there because the city will be underwater. They will be an island. We have no idea how long it will take to remove the water from the city. I've seen estimates from 10 weeks to 10 months... yes months.

There is a helipad (maybe 2) where choppers can land to drop potable water, food, tents and other supplies, but sanitation will be scarce to put it mildly. We really have no idea how long people will be there.

In theory they can be removed by boat... But how do you move 40,000+ people by boats that will be navigating their way thru a flooded city? And where do you put them?

And this is assuming the building has no structural problems.

These are all guesses obviously- we've never done it before. But it is pretty much commonly accepted these people will face days or probably weeks of hellish conditions few of us can imagine.

And to think that some reporters are going there voluntarily! Of course, maybe their news helicopters can airlift them out. (Speaking of which, isn't that hypothetically an option for everyone? Granted, it would take a while, but...)

Hat tip: InstaPundit, who notes in another post that "Knoxville hotels are filling with refugees from the Gulf coast."

Lisa Boone, who is riding out the storm north-northwest of Gulfport, MS, about 25 miles inland, checks in via e-mail:

We are watching the weather outside and the news on TV. The weather here is gusting to gale force at times with rain as feeder bands are going over.

I think we are shortly going to see tropical storm force winds and then hurricane force starting, I'm estimating, about daylight. ...

So far we still have power; we have a generator that is supposed to kick on when we lose power. We certainly hope it works.

If we lose telephone, I will see if I can get a cell signal and connect to the internet with that.

I know too many people that have chosen to ride this out in the Bay St Louis area, which looks to me like where the eye will come through in Ms. We are worried for friends tonight, the kids are actually worried about their schools, and of course, all the people and places that we love in New Orleans.

I'll check in later.