The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts today. Various forecasts say it’ll be a active season. Of course, the forecasts said that last season, too, and then the forecasters were blindsided by Saharan dust and El Niño, proving once again that global warming is a fraud global warming is real WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE long-term weather forecasting is, like, hard. And stuff.

Anyway, it’s nice to see a bit less hysterical hype accompanying the start of the season this year. Last year’s media circus surrounding June 1 was rather silly. As this post’s title states (and as I pointed out last year, too), there is nothing particularly special about the date June 1; the difference between May 31 and June 1, in terms of the likelihood of tropical formation, is no more drastic than the difference between June 1 and 2, or the difference between May 30 and 31. The first day of June is just an arbitrary cutoff date set by meteorological bureaucrats, and as Subtropical Storm Andrea proved, Mother Nature is under no obligation to pay attention to the meteorologists’ calendar.

The only thing that really changes today is that the National Hurricane Center starts issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks (at 5:30 AM, 11:30 AM, 5:30 PM and 10:30 PM). Here’s the second one of the season. It talks about a broad, disorganized area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico that is unlikely to develop into anything, although “only a small increase in the organization could bring the system to tropical or subtropical cyclone status.”

Well, actually, there’s at least one other thing that changes today. In recognition of the start of hurricane season, I moved my weather blogroll to the top of the right-hand column. :)

UPDATE: So much for “meaningless”! For the first time since 1968, a tropical storm has formed on June 1. Heh.

Just in: Subtropical Storm Andrea has formed.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Here’s a satellite view:

As predicted yesterday, a strong low pressure system has formed off the Carolinas, and it could become Subtropical Storm Andrea. (Hat tip: Patrick Cullen.)

Dr. Jeff Masters thinks not, however: “The storm will start to develop thunderstorm activity and a warm core, but will probably not have time to become fully subtropical and become Subtropical Storm Andrea.” And Margie Kieper is equally skeptical: “In spite of a thread on a well-known forum that mentions the A-word, and currently has over 9000 views, we won’t in all likelihood be springing into summer, at least hurricane-wise, in the Atlantic basin this week.”

Maybe not, but there mere threat of Andrea was enough to force me to officially create my “2007 Hurricane Season” category. :) Heeeere we go…