Tropical Depression Ernesto is now centered roughly over Cape Canaveral, Florida, according to the latest radar loop.


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Ernesto is slowly edging its way off the Florida east coast, as you can see. When it’s finally back fully over water again, it could strengthen:

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE…ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.

The forecast track takes it toward South Carolina. But how strong will it be? Brian Neudorff wonders if Ernesto “still has a hurricane in it.” Dr. Jeff Masters says no:

None of the forecast models or the official NHC forecast are calling for this to become a hurricane, though. The passage over Florida has weakened it to the point where it would take more time over water than Ernesto will have. It is possible that Ernesto will intensify very little, as happened when it popped off the coast of Cuba. The most likely intensity at its second landfall in South Carolina is 40-55 mph.

Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track is a bit more bullish about Ernesto’s prospects. Charles Fenwick stays out of that debate, but takes an interesting look at how the various computer models performed in predicting the storm’s first landfall.

But getting back to Dr. Masters, he’s covering the real big tropical stories of the hour: Hurricane John and Supertyphoon Ioke, both in the Pacific. John is a Category 4 monster off the coast of Mexico, and is expected to “move parallel to the coast over the next two days, but close enough to bring hurricane force winds to the coast at times. Any slight deviation towards the coast will bring the hurricane’s dangerous core ashore, and would make John one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico.”

But could John affect California? I haven’t heard any serious talk about a SoCal hurricane (or, more realistically, tropical storm) since 1997, when mighty Hurricane Linda threatened San Diego (but ultimately went out to sea). Now, however, Dr. Masters is talking about the possibility — though he thinks it’s unlikely:

Water temperatures along the Pacific coast of Mexico are 1-2 degrees C above normal all the way to the California coast, giving 2006 the possibility of allowing a tropical storm to reach California. It is very rare for an Eastern Pacific storm to move far enough north to affect the Arizona or California. Since 1900, only four tropical cyclones have brought tropical storm force winds to the Southwestern United States: an unnamed tropical storm that made landfall near Long Beach, CA, in 1939 (52 mph winds south of L.A.); the remnants of Hurricane Joanne in 1972; the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976 (76 mph wind gust at Yuma, AZ); and the remnants of Hurricane Nora in 1997. In addition, a hurricane just missed making landfall in October 1858 and brought hurricane force winds to San Diego and tropical storm force winds all the way to Los Angeles.

In order to affect California, a tropical cyclone would have to be moving quickly, so the the cold waters off the coast would not weaken it too fast. The alternative would be for the storm to barrel up the narrow Gulf of California, where water temperatures remain warm all the way to the end. [Such a storm wouldn’t actually make landfall in the U.S., but it would quickly cross into southeastern California or southern Arizona; see map. -ed.] To my knowledge, no such storm has ever been able to shoot more than half way up the narrow Gulf of California before dashing itself to pieces on the rugged terrain on either side. I’d be surprised if John manages to bring tropical storm force winds to the U.S.

Tropical Storm Ernesto, which has proven thus far to be more of a soggy nuisance than a deadly threat, has officially weakened to a tropical depression.

Brian Neudorff is all Ernesto’ed out. FLhurricane.com says, “It will cause fair amounts of rain, but overall will not be a too serious event for the state.” NHC director Max Mayfield is surprised Ernesto didn’t strengthen as expected: “As a homeowner, I’m very happy. As a forecaster, I’m not very happy.” The Palm Beach Post’s Bob King, sounding a similar theme, proclaims, “Ernest-D’Oh!.”

Dr. Jeff Masters explains what happened:

Tropical Storm Ernesto waited until the final hours before landfall to finally put its act together, much to the benefit of South Florida. The pressure dropped from 1005 to 1001 mb as the storm came ashore about midnight, but the winds did not have time to adjust to the lower pressure, and Ernesto still had just 45 mph winds at landfall. A tropical storm in the developing phase is a fussy thing, and a number of ingredients have to come together just right for rapid intensification. I believe that the presence of Cuba to the south and the Florida Peninsula to the north, along with the particular pattern of upper air flow that existed, combined to create a turbulent air pattern with multiple vortices that made consolidation of the storm around just one central vortex difficult. One could see these multiple vortices in long radar loops last night, and it was not until just before landfall that Ernesto managed to consolidate around a single center and start to intensify. Had the storm had another 24 hours over the warm waters, it would have been a hurricane.

Now that it’s over land, Ernesto is actually holding together fairly well, according to Adam Moyer at The Storm Track (which has a nifty new layout this morning). He explains: “This is most likely due to Ernesto moving over the Everglades, a swampy, warm water source. While obviously not as good as the Gulf of Mexico, it’s also not nearly as bad as moving over the mountains of the Greater Antilles.”

So, what now? Sayeth Moyer:

[I]t appears that Ernesto will be accelerating to the north-northeast this morning and early afternoon, most likely moving off the Florida coast between Daytona and Cape Canaveral. Once off the coast, Ernesto will have the opportunity to reintensify over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream before making another landfall near the North Carolina-South Carolina border. The computer models are in good agreement with this forecast, and the next landfall should take place Thursday night and into Friday morning.

The intensity forecast is slightly tricky. Most of the models have Ernesto coming ashore along the Carolinas as a moderate tropical storm, which is the most likely scenario. However, the warm waters of the Gulf Stream have been known quickly to spin up tropical cyclones. I’d give it about a 10% chance that Ernesto makes landfall as a hurricane in the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, Dr. Masters discusses the real monsters in the tropics, out in the Pacific:

Hurricane John
The most serious situation in the tropics today is off the west coast of Mexico, where Category 3 Hurricane John is. John has just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and is expected to intensify into a Category 4 hurricane today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, since it presents a serious threat to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Manzanillo.

Super Typhoon Ioke
The incredible Category 5 Supertyphoon Ioke continues to trek over the Western Pacific, and is expected to submerge tiny Wake Island later today. The entire population of the island has been eveacuated to Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has made landfall near Key Largo:


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There is no evidence yet — none that I can see, anyway — of the sharp right-hand turn that the NHC is expecting. Hmm. [UPDATE: But maybe I’m focusing too much on the narrowest circulation center I can spot? Looking more broadly at the area of relative calm at the center of the storm — the “quasi-eye,” if you will — it seems to be moving northwest. But looking at the pinpoint circulation center, it seems to be moving WNW, maybe even wobbling toward due west in the last few frames. Latest radar loop here.]

Anyway, Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track writes: “Needless to say, [Ernesto’s] impacts were quite minimal here in south Florida and after two seasons of relentless hurricanes, I am sure people are just fine with what happened.”

UPDATE, 12:45 AM: In the 11:00 PM discussion, the NHC said:

AN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE MADE LANDFALL. IN FACT…THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS

A brief stall like that can sometimes indicate that a change in direction is imminent — and, sure enough, in the last few radar frames, it looks to my untrained eye like Ernesto is finally moving ashore for real, and heading in a more northerly direction.

UPDATE, 1:22 AM: Yup. Definitely on shore now.


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The NHC was exactly right, in its forecasts throughout the day today, about the timing of this important right-hand turn. Kudos to Max Mayfield & co.

[UPDATE/CORRECTION, 4:55 PM: It’s time for another “Oh…nevermind” moment. From the 5:00 PM discussion:

DURING THE DAY…ERNESTO BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED-LOOKING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENTLY…HOWEVER…THE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING ON THE IMAGERY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED…AND THE FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ROUGHLY COMMENSURATE WITH THE TYPICAL SEMI-DIURNAL PRESSURE CHANGE. IN OTHER WORDS…ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING.

Hey, I can’t always be right! :) The NHC also does not appear to be sold on the heading-toward-the-Gulf theory.]

***ORIGINAL POST***

Adam Moyer at The Storm Track says Ernesto is strengthening:

The SFMR aboard the NOAA42 P-3 research aircraft has found surface winds of 55 kts to the east of the center of circulation. Ernesto is becoming much better organized by the hour.

But the big story is that some computer models are taking Ernesto west of the present NHC forecast track, through the Keys and toward the Florida west coast, which could spell trouble because it would give the storm time to strengthen as it rakes the coastline en route to Tampa Bay. Yikes! And the radar loop kinda makes it look like that’s the direction it’s headed:


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Here’s what Moyer says:

The model forecasts are bimodal this morning. The global models (e.g. GFS, UKMET, Canadian, etc.) are forecasting a landfall early tomorrow morning in the Florida Keys. However, the statistical-dynamical (S-D) models (e.g. the BAMs, LBAR, etc.) are forecasting a landfall tomorrow night near or south of Tampa. Ordinarily, I would dismiss the S-D models as being out to lunch. Here, though, is where the S-D models shine. When a storm is poorly organized and not initialized well in the global models, as Ernesto is right now, the S-D models often have as good, if not better forecasts for a tropical storm. Admittedly, this particular model run has me quite confused.

he intensity forecast is where things get really sticky. If the global models are right, Ernesto will not have much time to intensify and would come ashore on the Keys as moderate to strong tropical storm, since Ernesto is just now starting to reorganize itself. However, if the S-D models are right about the track, Ernesto will have plenty of time to get its act together. That would be bad news for the Gulf coast of Florida. Should the S-D models be correct and Ernesto has 36 hours to spend over the open water, the dreaded rapid intensification is back in the picture again. Currently, the SHIPS forecast has a probability of 32% for rapid intensification. While not high, it is also not insignificant. Should rapid intensification occur, Ernesto could easily be a Category 2 hurricane or higher at landfall on the Gulf coast. At the moment, the intensity models are all forecasting Ernesto to be a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall in the Keys (Figure 4). Obviously, in the models, the S-D solution has not been accounted for. Should the global models’ track be correct, the intensity forecast is more or less correct. If not, Ernesto has the possibility of becoming a major event for the Gulf coast.

This could get interesting* yet. Stay tuned! And if you’re on the west coast of Florida, stay on your guard!

*…above and beyond the flooding caused by rain, which will be “interesting” enough.

P.S. Here are what this morning’s and this afternoon’s model runs look like, side-by-side:

The more recent model run looks a little less Gulf-oriented… but then again, there are more models, so it’s hard to say what’s really changed. And look at that radar again… hmm.

From the 11:00 AM discussion:

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT…AND A NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING…IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION…AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY…HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

But the headline of the public advisory is:

…OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST…SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED…

Meanwhile, after days of shifting ever rightward, the computer models are now apparently trending leftward: “THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.” Further leftward drift in the track could prevent Ernesto from spending much time at all back over water after hitting Florida, decreasing or eliminating the chances of reintensificaiton before hitting the Carolinas. (For now, though, the NHC says: “AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.”

The 8 am update from the National Hurricane Center shows no major changes — maximum sustained winds at 45 mph, central pressure 1007 mb, some strengthening expected today. Rain bands are expected to reach the Florida Keys and southeast Florida this afternoon, with the center making landfall this evening. 5-10 inches of rain is expected in Florida, with 15 inches possible in some places. Dr. Jeff Masters on the projected track:

The latest forecast models are all in excellent agreement, calling for a landfall in the Everglades tonight, a long passage up the spine of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, at the Kennedy Space Center, NASA has just made a final decision to move Atlantis to shelter, and the mobile launcher platform carrying Atlantis is about to start its 10-hour trip to the Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA rules say the shuttle should be moved if winds are expected to reach 79 mph. It seems unlikely to me that Ernesto will be that strong at Cape Canaveral, since it would have to intensify and maintain strength as it moves north across a large section of Florida. The NHC wind speed probabilities shows only a 5 percent chance of 64-knot winds (74-mph) at Cocoa Beach. But a NASA announcement says that “KSC can expect winds up to 70-mph by 8 pm on Wednesday,” and the possibility of rapid intensification may have tipped the scales (speculation on my part). Moving Atlantis to shelter means that the shuttle will almost certainly be delayed until late October, unless lighting requirements are relaxed for the next shuttle launch (NASA) or the next Soyuz landing (Russia).

UPDATE: TS Ernesto hasn’t turned into a monster, or (at least) a montor headed for Cape Canaveral, and in light of the improving weather forecast, NASA cancelled the rollback of Atlantis at 2:45 pm. This was almost halfway through the shuttle’s 10-hour trip from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building. Atlantis is now being hauled back towards the pad. So, if this was planned as a “shuttle rollback”, what do we call this? A “shuttle rollaround”, perhaps. In any case, there’s now a chance for a September shuttle launch.

Well, that didn’t take long. Almost immediately upon emerging back out over water after crossing Cuba, Tropical Storm Ernesto is back up to 45 mph, and more strengthening is expected:

NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER…AT LEAST SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT…BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER… THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO…THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO…SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA. ALSO…AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND U.S. LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA COASTS.

Here’s the forecast track, which is now (finally!) pretty high-confidence. Landfall should occur around midnight, or thereabouts, in south Florida.

And now, I’m going to go “make landfall” on the bed, having stayed up way too late blogging about Katrina and Ernesto, as well as applying to federal clerkships. :)

“Oh… nevermind.”

As of 11:00 PM, the NHC is no longer forecasting an aborted recurvature by Tropical Storm Ernesto. The left-hand turn has been replaced by a straight line. There goes pillar #1 supporting my shameless speculation about a New York Nightmare Scenario. And pillar #2, the belief that Ernesto’s right-of-the-forecast trend would continue, isn’t looking too good either:

ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. … SOME [FURTHER] SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS [COULD BE] IN THE OFFING.

D’oh! Well, it was a good theory for the 3 hours that it lasted. :)

The other headline out of the 11pm advisory is that it looks increasingly unlikely Ernesto will ever live up to the hype… which is, of course, a good thing:

THE RADAR DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ERNESTO…AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE…WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER CLEARS THE COASTS…BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE…AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA…THE LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING.

The only bad part about Ernesto potentially not living up to the hype is that some folks who don’t understand hurricanes, and the inherent uncertainty involved in forecasting them, will claim that it was patently ridiculous for anyone to ever be afraid of this thing in the first place. Which isn’t true. There was legitimate reason to believe that it could have posed a threat, and legitimate reason to put people on their guard. (Indeed, people should still be on their guard, from Florida to the Carolinas at least. It ain’t over till it’s over!) Sometimes, though, those fickle air molecules blow around in such a way that we luck out. When that happens, we shouldn’t gripe about hype; we should be grateful, and leave it at that.

P.S. Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track sums things up well:

The way things look now, Ernesto will have a tough time surviving the night. Haiti first and then Cuba have both done a number on the inner core of the cyclone and without that engine running smoothly, it cannot rev up. This spells very good news for people in south Florida and possibly even farther north (the Carolinas). While we don’t want to ignore this storm, it does appear that it will be hard for Ernesto to make any kind of a significant run at becoming a hurricane. I tell you, if it weren’t for the Greater Antilles, the United States and Bahamas would be in bad shape from hurricanes that ran aground in the mountain nations. Still, we will need to be ready just in case Ernesto pulls some last minute intensity increase- better to be prepared than not. … Once clear of Florida, the storm should make its way in to the Carolinas though it is unlikely it will be a hurricane- but you never know.

Meanwhile, Alan Sullivan is looking ahead… way ahead:

I just ran the 16 day GFS model. It’s bad, projecting about six inches of rain for Norfolk this weekend, with Ernesto’s remnant moving slowly up the coast. It also shows another hurricane — a really big one — approaching the East Coast [in two weeks].

This is what he’s talking about:


Proto-Florence? Proto-Gordon? Proto-Helene?

Needless to say, this is ridiculously, indeed redonkulously speculative… sort of like giving a detailed breakdown of the offensive and defensive matchups in your anticipated Ohio State-West Virginia national title game, and a gametime weather forecast to boot. :) Still, it’s fun to look at the pretty colors on the map.

Last but not least, on a somewhat related note, Dr. Jeff Masters gives us an interesting and helpful lesson in what the various computer models are, how they work, etc.

Sean’s post below pretty much covers the short- and medium-term Ernesto forecast, but what interests me most about the 5:00 PM track is the long-term forecast. Between 96 and 120 hours (i.e., on Friday and Saturday), the NHC is now predicting an overland left-hand turn:

That’s pretty rare. Normally, once hurricanes start recurving, they don’t stop. That’s what I’ve observed over the years, anyway, and it’s one reason why New England and New York landfalls are so rare: they virtually require an aborted recurvature. So this is an unusual forecast, it seems to me. But the NHC doesn’t really explain why they’re forecasting it. The discussion simply states:

IN 3-5 DAYS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

That’s true; see for example this model map. But, again, why is the model consensus calling for an abrupt left-hand turn in the middle of a would-be recurvature? Off the top of my head, my guess would be that the models foresee a blocking high-pressure system that will prevent Ernesto from recurving all the way out to sea — and the AVN’s 120-hour forecast seems to confirm that:

If we assume that the presence of the blocking high pressure system is an immutable fact, whereas the exact trajectory of Ernesto over the next few days is still very much in question, doesn’t this bring New York and New England into play? I find myself again thinking about yesterday’s truism, “the trend is your friend,” and specifically, Ernesto’s almost Liebermanesque :) tendency to lean just to the right of where he’s expected to go. What if Ernesto’s actual track (through 96 hours) takes him roughly along the far right edge of the current track “cone,” but then on Friday, he runs into that blocking high — and makes a Lamontish :) turn to the left, toward Long Island or thereabouts?

Thus far with Ernesto, I’ve talked about nightmare scenarios involving New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Key West and Miami, none of which now seem likely to come to pass. Is it time to bust out the ultimate worst-case scenario: the New York nightmare? (Let’s hear it for fear-mongering! :)

Is a landfall in the Northeastern U.S. likely? No. But is it plausible? I’m thinking yes, but I’m curious what others think. I could be way off here. Thoughts?

Incidentally, for more on Ernesto, including a discussion of the possibility that we’re all engaging in a bit of excessive post-Katrina hype here, check out this post by Brian Neudorff, an Indiana native and Purdue grad who is now a meteorologist at WJET-TV in Erie, PA, and whose blog I just added to my hurricane blogroll. Good stuff. See also his Katrina anniversary post. And speaking of the Katrina anniversary, don’t forget to keep visiting Margie Kieper’s blog!

P.S. Yes, the waters get cold up north. But don’t forget about the Gulf Stream! If Ernesto follows the eastern edge of the guidance envelope, it could pass right over those warm waters — which have an almost otherwordly tendency to give hurricanes a huge jolt of energy — before turning left and heading north.

Just saying!

P.P.S. Again, a caveat: I’m NOT PREDICTING ANYTHING! I’m just thinking out loud here.

Fortunately, it appears that Ernesto’s circulation has been largely disrupted by the storm’s passage over Cuba. This may spare Florida a hurricane, although it’s too early to tell. From the 5 pm NHC discussion:

THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED… WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. RECENTLY…HOWEVER…SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WE EXPECT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE’S PASSAGE OVER LAND…IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT…THE SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS…GFDL…AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

Dr. Jeff Masters says:

My best guess is for a very wet tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 mph hitting the Everglades.

The NHC’s wind speed probability table still shows a 45% chance of hurricane strength in 36 hours. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Atlantic coast south of Vero Beach, the Florida Gulf coast south of Chokoloskee, and the Florida Keys. In addition, a tropical storm watch is in effect on the Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to Englewood, and a hurricane watch is in effect on the Atlantic coast from Vero Beach to New Smyrna Beach. Florida residents should continue monitoring this storm closely.

The 11am NHC forecast track looks pretty much exactly like the 12:16am fake Brendan Loy forecast track. Heh.

The Palm Beach Post’s Bob King says, “for the record, I don’t like that new forecast track one bit.”

But Ernesto is only expected to just barely attain Category 1 hurricane strength before hitting the Miami area. (Then again, remember how much damage Katrina did to that area as a Cat. 1 last year.) However, The Storm Track says:

I hate to keep bringing up the same point, but the models are terrible at forecasting rapid intensification and this is a distinct possibility with Ernesto once it moves off of Cuba. I am sticking with my forecast from the previous post of landfall near Homestead as a borderline Category 2-3 hurricane.

I’m not prepared to make such a forecast, but I do think rapid intensification is a possibility. Here’s a look at the sea-surface temperatures and oceanic heat content maps for the track Ernesto is expected to follow:

At least one computer model (the GFDN, I think) is forecasting some very rapid intensification:

The key question is just how thoroughly disorganized Ernesto becomes over Cuba. If it totally falls apart (which seems quite possible), it could take a significant amount of time just to get its act back together — not strengthening, just reorganizing — once it re-emerges over water. If that’s the case, it may not have time to rapidly intensitfy.

The 11 am NHC discussion just came out, and discusses Ernesto’s track over Cuba:

ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA CAZONAL…JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO…AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA…WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER…RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST…AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.

There’s a strange quality to following Ernesto. The storm itself isn’t all that impressive right now. From the 8 am NHC advisory:

ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA …

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.

With this storm, what matters most is track projection, not current wind speed. The 5 am NHC discussion paints the track a little more definite:

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM…AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA…AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

The NHC forecast map projects Ernesto to make landfall near the southern tip of the Everglades, with a northward track over Lake Okechobee and then emerging over the Atlantic around Daytona Beach — still at hurricane strength. Of course, this is just a projection with all the usual caveats and qualifications … but it could make life interesting for Florida’s entire east coast, from Miami to Jacksonville.

The 5 am discussion notes the extreme uncertainty in the intensity forecast:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA…THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…JUST AS ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

Dr. Jeff Masters looks at the historical record of storms on similar tracks across Cuba, and feels that Ernesto won’t have much punch over Florida, and the main danger may be further up the coast — around the Carolinas:

So, history is against Ernesto becoming anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane upon landfall in South Florida, and I believe landfall as a tropical storm is more likely. If Ernesto does take a more westerly track up the west coast of Florida towards Sarasota, landfall as a Category 1 hurricane could occur …

While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto’s impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, at Cape Canaveral, NASA is preparing to move the space shuttle Atlantis from launch pad 39-B to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB), which would provide more protection from hurricance-force winds. Atlantis had been scheduled for launch on Sunday afternoon — until the launch pad took a titanic 100,000-amp lightning strike on Friday. NASA postponed Sunday’s launch to check the shuttle for damage — apparently it’s ok — but that gave Ernesto time to bear down on the space center. For awhile, NASA technicians were working simultaneously to prepare Atlantis for a Tuesday launch attempt — and an emergency rollback to the VAB (that had to be really confusing!). But NASA has now elected to focus on the rollback option. From Spaceflight Now’s mission status center:

NASA had been targeting the 4-mile rollback of Atlantis to begin around 2 p.m. on Tuesday. But given the weather outlook, Leinbach has told the teams to look at ways to do some work in parallel so that the timeline could be compressed. That would allow the shuttle to begin the 6-to-8-hour trip back to the Vehicle Assembly Building around 8 or 10 a.m. EDT.

Hurricane force winds are expected at Kennedy Space Center by late afternoon or early evening on Wednesday.

A rollback could have lots of interesting domino effects on the space program. After Atlantis returns to the launch pad, it would take about eight days to prepare the shuttle for launch. If Atlantis is not launched by September 7, the next Russian spacecraft returning to Earth would have to land at night, which they don’t want to have happen. And if Atlantis is not launched by September 13, there would be only three days in the rest of 2006 with the proper lighting conditions for this shuttle launch.

Ernesto may be a weak storm over Cuba on an uncertain track, but it’s already causing havoc in the space program. But this is evidence of the fact that distant storms have to be taken seriously, even if it causes inconvenience, because they can hit quickly and cause lots of damage if the proper preparations aren’t made. NASA knows this, and is acting responsibly.

Haiti took a serious toll on Ernesto today, dropping it to a weak tropical storm with 50 mph winds as of 11:00 PM — and it’s probably not even that strong, according to the NHC discussion:

THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z…AND THE HIGHEST WINDS THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT. THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND…SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID NOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS. NEVERTHELESS…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH. IN GENERAL…THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY…WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT.

So, Ernesto has pretty much fallen apart. But, what now? Will it reorganize in the 9-12 hours over open water before hitting Cuba? There are differing opinions about that. From the NHC:

SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE REACHING CUBA…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HOWEVER…THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA.

Alan Sullivan predicts:

There’s only a short stretch of warm open water ahead of Ernesto, then the mountains of southeastern Cuba will weaken the storm further. It’s possible that Ernesto will lose its surface circulation and dissipate into tropical wave, but there’s probably enough upper level structure to regenerate the storm over the Florida Straits. I would be surprised if Ernesto ever becomes a major hurricane.

From FLhurricane.com:

It has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of Cuba. Otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across Cuba. … [T]he satellite signature and overall profile of the storm does not suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify.

The entire Florida coast, Cuba, and the Bahamas are still under the gun. Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down.

What do I predict? I predict unpredictability; I suggest expecting the unexpected. :) Ernesto has been confounding forecasters for its entire life, so I’m not putting too much stock in anyone’s predictions at this point. All I can say is, stay tuned.

I want to start this post with a caveat: I’m not predicting that Ernesto will hit Miami. I just think the possibility is worth discussing, if we’re going to discuss worst-case scenarios. Certainly, there is no need for anyone in any particular location to panic. And, in terms of preparations, everyone within the forecast cone (which includes virtually all of Florida, and in the longer term, the entire East Coast up to the Delmarva), not just Miami and environs, should be getting ready for a possible strike. It’s also quite possible that Ernesto will so weaken over Cuba, it won’t be a major issue for anybody in the United States. All that said, however…

Earlier, I speculated about the possibility that Ernesto could be the nightmare hurricane for Key West and/or Tampa Bay. With the storm’s rapid weakening over Haiti, however, that seems less likely (though not impossible). But what about Miami?

At present, the official NHC forecast has Ernesto heading toward the west coast of Florida (specifically, the southwest coast). But the computer model tracks — and, consequently, the NHC forecasts — have been consistently trending further and further to the right over the last day or two:

It would only take a relatively small additional rightward deviation to bring Miami into the target zone:

That blue line is just a hypothetical “what if?” scenario, drawn by me and based on nothing scientific. That said, a couple of the computer models are predicting pretty much this very scenario (though I should point out that it is never a good idea to rely on a particular computer model for planning purposes).

As always, if the storm’s center comes in just to the left of the area of concern, in this case Miami, that would be the worst scenario in terms of both wind and storm surge.

Anyway… Margie Kieper recently cited the saying “the trend is your friend” — a financial motto which, in this context, reflects the lesson that when the computer models keep consistently shifting in a particular direction, looking at the forecast trend can be more helpful than looking at any one individual forecast. I’ve noticed this too, plenty of times over the years. In this case, it could potentially suggest that betting on a landfall east of the current “center line” in the NHC forecast track might be a good bet.

A Miami scenario wouldn’t just bring Ernesto toward one of America’s most vulnerable cities. It would also decrease the amount of time the center spends over land, and increase the amount of water available for it to restrengthen after exiting Cuba. In addition, the sea-surface temperatures between east-central Cuba and the Miami area are somewhat warmer than the SSTs between west-central Cuba and southwestern Florida, raising the possibility of greater strengthening:

Likewise the overall heat potential of the water:

On the other hand, such a track would also take Ernesto over higher terrain in Cuba, perhaps increasing the odds of the storm falling apart completely.

Also possibly going against my Miami theory is this line from the 11pm EDT discussion:

THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT…AS THEY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS…SO I WOULDN’T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.

The 5:00 AM advisory will tell the tale. In the mean time, as long as the “trend” remains consistent, I’ll continue wondering about Miami.