Breaking off the Fox News site: Helene is here.

She’s the fourth hurricane of the Atlantic season. From the NHC’s 3-day forecast cone, she will remain over open waters for a while yet.

Harmless Hurricane Gordon, a Cat. 3 “swimmer,” is continuing to look pretty this morning:

That’s the visible satellite view. Here’s a broader visible image, also showing Tropical Storm Helene at bottom right, and the extratropical remnants of Hurricane Florence near the top:

Here’s the visible loop. Lots more tropical satellite images here.

The water vapor satellite view is also very interesting:

Note how the huge circulation of ex-Florence is drawing in moisture from the vicinity of Gordon. Kinda cool.

Hurricane Gordon, above, has become the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the 2006 season, a Category Three with 120 mph winds, and it’s one of those storms that we weather nerds can enjoy without guilt: a powerful hurricane over the open ocean with no realistic prospect of hitting land. (Forecast track here.)

Margie Kieper agrees: “Finally the [Saharan dust]-choked North Atlantic has coughed up a hurricane to be proud of, and since it’s not headed for land, we can happily watch it mature.” Kieper has lots more pictures of Gordon looking pretty, including this one from a few hours ago:

As the late great Steve Irwin might have said, “She’s a beauty!” Er, or perhaps “he,” since Gordon is a male name. Anyway, here’s a broader view:

Up near the top right, you can also see the now-extratropical remnants of Hurricane Florence hitting Newfoundland. The storm remains quite strong — packing hurricane-force winds of 76 mph gusting to 93 mph, according to Dr. Jeff Masters — but the Newfies were experiencing no serious problems as of this afternoon.

Meanwhile, out in the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Depression 8 has become Tropical Storm Helene. It’s not yet clear where she’ll go, with the forecast track showing an attempt at recurvature followed by a bend back to the west. Computer model tracks here. Earlier today, Dr. Masters called Helene (then T.D. 8) the “one to watch,” declaring that it “has the potential to grow into a major hurricane that may affect Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast next week.” But he later concedes that a U.S. strike is unlikely, and Mark Sudduth is even more skeptical:

[T]he NHC has upgraded TD #8 to “Helene”. The forecast is fairly simple still- a general west movement followed by a turn more to the northwest. After that, five or more days from now, the then-hurricane will either turn on out to the north and in to the open Atlantic or come more to the west as high pressure builds to its north. The odds of this making it all the way across the Atlantic are slim to none.

For the first time all season, there are three active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin: Hurricane Florence, Tropical Storm Gordon, and Tropical Depression Eight.

This should come as no surprise, considering we’re just two days past the climatological peak of the season. This is precisely the time of year we’d expect to see the tropics active.

The good news is, Gordon is no threat to land and Florence is becoming extratropical. It’ll bring wind and rain to Newfoundland and then possibly Ireland — yes, Ireland! — as a mighty galestorm, but it’s nothing those folks haven’t seen many times before.

As for T.D. 8, a.k.a. proto-Helene, it’s way out there in the eastern Atlantic, just off the coast of Africa, so there’s plenty of time to watch it. Most of the computer models suggest recurvature, but it’s really too early to say until there’s more and better data on it.

Dr. Jeff Masters has more on all three systems.

Hurricane Florence strengthened nearly into a Category 2 storm as she swept past Bermuda today, but initial reports indicated there was little damage on the island. Now Florence is heading out to sea — and newly declared Tropical Storm Gordon is following behind.

Because of all the college-football action, I’ve been very lax in my coverage of Hurricane Florence (yep, it became a hurricane overnight), but it’s headed straight for Bermuda, and could be a strong Category 2 (or perhaps even a Cat. 3?) by the time it hits Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are up. Forecast track here. For more extensive coverage, visit the hurricane links at right, particularly Dr. Jeff Masters. As always, visit the NHC for the very latest.

Incidentally, today is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The good news is, an active second half of the season is now looking less likely, because El Niño is coming back.

P.S. Here’s the Bermuda radar.

To be Florence, or not to be Florence? That is no longer the question, as Tropical Depression Six has finally strengthened and earned its name. From the discussion:

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY [IS] 35 KT . . . IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT…BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS. . . .

SINCE FLORENCE HAS A RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS AT LEAST 400 NMI IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90-100 NMI…ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT…THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTRACT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER 29C SSTS…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR FLORENCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE BY THAT TIME.

This is becoming quite amusing and is almost as up and down as gas prices. I was in the middle of posting about the 11 PM advisory which stated TD#6 was again close to becoming a tropical storm, when the 5 AM advisory came out, which states “Tropical Depression remains large but unorganized”. It still has maximum winds of 35MPH and is moving WNW at 13MPH. According to the discussion, convection has increased but the overall organization of the system is still quite poor. If the wind shear that the depression is experiencing dies down over the next two days, as currently forecast, the depression should strengthen. However, the two big questions are 1-will this wind shear actually die down?, and 2- will the depression hang in there long enough to enjoy the lowered wind shear?

As of 5pm, T.D. 6 isn’t strengthening as expected — in fact, it may actually be weakening:

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT… IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. . . . SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY… BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. . . . SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH… ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS… AFTER WHICH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN.

I’ve heard all this before, of course. I believe the storm’s name was… Ernesto. :) But really, the computer models weren’t wrong about Ernesto: the atmosphere was favorable for significant intensification. It’s just that the storm was over land when that happened!

Tropical Depression Six is almost a tropical storm, according to the 11am discussion:

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION…THOUGH THESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF 25 TO 30 KT [30 to 35 mph] WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION… AND A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT [40 mph] VECTORS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH… QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A LITTLE THIN… THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT [35 mph].

Bryan Woods at The Storm Track is skeptical. But Dr. Jeff Masters agrees with the NHC’s analysis, and says proto-Florence will likely earn its name soon.

The long-term GFS loop shows Florence, by then a hurricane, recurving out to sea a few hundred miles east of New England, then walloping Newfoundland as (presumably) a transitioning or extratropical storm. Of course, it’s (I say again) way too early to take such track details seriously. [So why do you keep mentioning them? -ed. … I can’t help myself! Mr. Worf, fire up the hype machine!]

On a related note, Charles Fenwick looks at the climatology:

As you can see [from this map of August and September depressions and storms that passed within 100 nautical miles of T.D. 6’s 11pm position], it is difficult for storms that start as far north as 6 did to make it to the east coast; most go up the gap that opens when the Bermuda high is in an easterly position. There are, though, some notorious storms that have started to go up such a gap only to have the high strengthen or shift to the west, which forces the storm ashore, such as Gloria and the 1938 storm…with Diane perhaps being the most dramatic example of a high trapping a storm that would have been headed out to sea.

Last but not least, “SciGuy” Eric Berger notes that the computer models show another storm trailing behind Florence in a few days. Proto-Gordon?

Tropical Depression #6 has formed, and is currently about 1500 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Its maximum winds are near 35 MPH, and it is moving near the northwest at 14 MPH. It currently has a minimum pressure of 1005 MB. You can see the latest advisory here. Also, Jeff Masters wrote a little about it earlier today when it was still just “Invest 90L”. He also mentions some other possible areas of development in the Atlantic.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Dr. Masters says: “The GFS predicts the storm will become a powerful hurricane that will recurve a few hundred miles off the U.S. East Coast without hitting land.” Brian Neudorff links to a model map. Hey, wait a minute… this is the same storm I blogged about last Monday, when it was just a twinkle in the computer models’ eyes! (See also here.) The models invented a nonexistent storm out of thin air, and — voila! — here it is! :) But the models’ long-term forecast track for what we can now confidently call “proto-Florence” has become more favorable to the East Coast, with a more safely out-to-sea recurvature expected. It’s way, way, way too early to be confident of ANY forecast track, of course, let alone a 10-day computer-model prediction. But I just think it’s cool — cool enough to break moratorium :) — that the purely hypothetical storm which the computer models predicted last week has now actually popped into existence.

The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on Ernesto, which is now a tropical depression. But the discussion notes:

THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST.

Andrew Leyden has video of Ernesto’s effects on the Chesapeake Bay. Another reader, Lee Ann, sends along this report from Georgetown, South Carolina, where she and her family were last night:

We got to Georgetown at 5:15. Rain began about fifteen minutes before–there was lots of wind, probably sustained 25 mph for short periods, bigger gusts, but really not much.

NPR was saying it was going to go in at Georgetown and be a CAT 1, and we started to wonder if we really should be on the ocean–but the weather channel sure looked like it was going further north, and wasn’t too much of anything, so we went out to dinner. Oysters and haddock at our favorite seafood place.

Partly sunny right now, surfboards due to arrive soon.

Here’s the latest radar.

Ernesto is almost ashore near Cape Fear, North Carolina. But will he make landfall as a tropical storm, or as a hurricane? We’ll find out in a few minutes, when the 11:00 PM advisory from the NHC comes out.

Hurricane Track has more, including video reports from the strike zone.

UPDATE, 10:45 PM: Nope… still a tropical storm. The Hurricane Watches remain up, but I don’t see how Ernesto can realistically strengthen to a hurricane at this point. He’s already halfway ashore!

Tropical Storm Ernesto is strengthening. As of 2:00 PM, it’s at 70 mph — just shy of the requisite 74 mph to become a hurricane — and Hurricane Watches are up for the Carolina coasts. Alan Sullivan thinks it will be a hurricane. The NHC isn’t officially forecasting that, but acknowledged the possibility in the 11:00 AM discussion:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS [70 MPH] AT LANDFALL IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64 KNOTS [74 MPH] AT LANDFALL…WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST…A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.

Dr. Jeff Masters has more.

Incidentally, I may have a liveblogger reporting later this evening, via audioblog and/or cell-phone photo posts, from just south of Myrtle Beach, very close to the expected landfall point… but no promises about that yet. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, check out the current images from the long-range Charleston and Wilmington radars. That’s the same storm, but it looks a lot more impressive on the Charleston radar, doesn’t it? This is a great example of how radar images of the far side of a tropical system tend to make it look weaker than it really is. The Charleston radar is piercing the side of the storm and seeing a strong left back quadrant. The Wilmington radar has to cut through the bulk of the storm to see that, and thus, isn’t picking it up very well. At least, that’s what appears to be happening; if someone has a different explanation, by all means offer it. I’m not a radar expert, but I’ve definitely seen this pattern before.

Ernesto is a tropical storm again, as of 11:25 PM. Mark Sudduth still thinks it may regain hurricane strength before all is said and done; the official forecast calls for strengthening, but only to 60 mph. The official forecast track predicts a second landfall near the SC/NC border this evening, and then an inland track taking Ernesto straight toward… Buffalo! If the timing is just right, maybe Shannon will give her baby the middle name “Ernesto”? :) No, but seriously: Ernesto’s biggest impact may be inland flooding particularly in the mid-Atlantic states.

Meanwhile, Margie Kieper has an excellent post about Supertyphoon Ioke, which is about to make an improbable direct hit on tiny Wake Island. SciGuy says of Ioke: “The worst may be yet to come. Some models, such as the GFS, forecast Ioke to become ridiculously strong. A recent model run had the storm reaching 210 mph winds with a central pressure of 865 millibars. Such a storm would easily eclipse Typhoon Tip as the most intense ever to form.”