According to the New York Times, an internal military assessment concludes that so far, the “surge” isn’t going too well:

Three months after the start of the Baghdad security plan that has added thousands of American and Iraqi troops to the capital, they control fewer than one-third of the city’s neighborhoods, far short of the initial goal for the operation, according to some commanders and an internal military assessment.

The American assessment, completed in late May, found that American and Iraqi forces were able to “protect the population” and “maintain physical influence over” only 146 of the 457 Baghdad neighborhoods.

In the remaining 311 neighborhoods, troops have either not begun operations aimed at rooting out insurgents or still face “resistance,” according to the one-page assessment, which was provided to The New York Times and summarized reports from brigade and battalion commanders in Baghdad. …

The operation “is at a difficult point right now, to be sure,” said Brig. Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, the deputy commander of the First Cavalry Division, which has responsibility for Baghdad.

In an interview, he said that while military planners had expected to make greater gains by now, that has not been possible in large part because Iraqi police and army units, which were expected to handle basic security tasks, like manning checkpoints and conducting patrols, have not provided all the forces promised, and in some cases have performed poorly. …

When planners devised the Baghdad security plan late last year, they had assumed most Baghdad neighborhoods would be under control around July, according to a senior American military officer, so the emphasis could shift into restoring services and rebuilding the neighborhoods as the summer progressed.

“We were way too optimistic,” said the officer, adding that September is now the goal for establishing basic security in most neighborhoods, the same month that Bush administration officials have said they plan to review the progress of the plan.

Anti-war, paleo-conservative blogger Daniel Larison says this is yet another example of the dangers of optimism:

Frankly, Americans are suffering from an overdose of confidence-boosters. They could stand some plain, matter-of-fact talk right about now. Support for the war would have bled away at a slower rate had the administration and military been more cautious in their pronouncements of progress and much less optimistic about the time it would take to get things done. Of course, the truth would be unpopular, but inflating everyone’s hopes and then having them disappointed exacerbates the problem of an already unpopular war. Having heard from the usual suspects that violence was waning, Sadr was on the run and so on, the public will take the relative lack of substantial progress in securing all of Baghdad that much worse than it would have done had those in authority talked down the “surge.” Perhaps it is inimical to a military ethos to do this, but with this administration it seems like the safe advice for managing expectations is “aim low.”

Indeed.

Just a question, but knowing what you know now, how would you vote on the floor of the Senate on a resolution authorizing the invasion of Iraq? That is to say if you could have a complete do over on the subject based on the information you have now would you pick a different path? Various debates and arguments in the press, online etc. have, for some reason, made me curious as to how people would answer such a question.

Oh, this is good.

The communists are after our precious bodily fluids again! First fluoridation, now toxic Chinese toothpaste! Somebody call Gordon Sinclair!

Specifically, new sanctions against Sudan:

President Bush imposed sanctions Tuesday against Sudan in reaction to the “genocide” in Darfur, and has ordered actions against 31 companies and three people — preventing them from doing business in or with U.S. companies.

The three Sudanese people affected include two high-ranking government officials and a rebel leader, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. They were targeted for their roles in fomenting violence and human rights abuses in Darfur, the agency said.

“For too long the people of Darfur have suffered at the hands of a government that is complicit in the bombing, murder and rape of innocent civilians.

“My administration has called these actions by their rightful name, genocide. The world has a responsibility to help put an end to it,” Bush said.

Bush said he had ordered Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to write up a draft resolution that will be presented to the U.N. Security Council.

Jerry Falwell’s body lies a-moulderin’ in the grave but his soul goes marching on ~ in Poland (!):

A senior Polish official has ordered psychologists to investigate whether the popular BBC TV show Teletubbies promotes a homosexual lifestyle.

The spokesperson for children’s rights in Poland, Ewa Sowinska, singled out Tinky Winky, the purple character with a triangular aerial on his head.

“I noticed he was carrying a woman’s handbag,” she told a magazine. “At first, I didn’t realise he was a boy.”

…Poland’s authorities have recently initiated a series of moves to outlaw the promotion of homosexuality among the nation’s children.

Tinky Winky’s psychological evaluation is being treated fairly light-heartedly by many people here.

One radio station asked its listeners to vote for the most suspicious children’s show. Some e-mailed in, saying that Winnie the Pooh had only male friends.

…Last month the European Union singled out Poland for criticism in its resolution condemning homophobia in the 27-member bloc.

Read the whole sillyarse thing.

Meanwhile, in a more Ominous report from the Motherland of Poland’s most-Recent former imperial Masters,

A gay rights demonstration in Moscow degenerated into violence for the second year running as right-wing and orthodox extremists attacked gay rights activists and supporters of the unauthorised demonstration.

GayRussia leader Nikolai Alexeyev was bundled into a police van and driven away moments after arriving outside the offices of Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, who has called homosexuals “satanic”.

…”What we have is authoritarianism and we are moving towards totalitarianism,” said Lydia Hmelevskaya, a 24-year-old lesbian.

“I have been beaten up on a train because of the way I look. I have the right to look the way I want to.”

…On numerous occasions, nationalists circled gay rights activists as they spoke with journalists, then reached in to punch or kick the person being interviewed.

One journalist was attacked because he wore an earring, which led nationalists to say he was gay.

Police intervened to arrest dozens of gay rights activists and only rarely detained their attackers.

Here’s the whole Unfunny thing.

Final (? :) Update, Sun. May 27: see Way Below.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *
With the official tally just underway on the customary & commendable Irishtime schedule :) following yesterday’s Poblacht na hÉireann general election, the results are in for the punters:

The race to be the next Taoiseach is all over according to Paddy Power bookies, which has announced it is paying out on Bertie Ahern to fill the post.

The bookmaker’s Call is of course based on the Latest blight to arrive in Ireland from abroad: the Exit Poll ;> ~

Political parties are studying the results of an RTÉ exit poll which suggests that Fianna Fáil will win almost exactly the same share of the vote as in 2002, but that Fine Gael will increase its vote by around 4%.

The poll, carried out by Lansdowne Market Research, shows decreases in support for Labour and the PDs, while the Greens and Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have made a major breakthrough.

The process of counting votes in the General Election is under way at 43 constituencies. Early tallies which are a strong indication of trends will be available by mid-morning.

First results are expected by mid-afternoon.

Whole thing. The polling is re First Preference votes only. Under Ireland’s very excellent :) Single Transferable Vote system, the “transfer votes” ~ occurring when your 1st Choice is eliminated and your Lesser ballot ranking(s) are added to a Survivor’s total in subsequent count(s) ~ can have a big impact on the final results.

Here’s a BBC take; and a couple of other BBC pieces, on life astride the Celtic Tiger in the little land that has become the Envy of all Europe :).

PM Ahern, by the way, despite his major role in Prodding & Cajoling them into making Peace & joining Government in the Six Counties, says his Fianna Fáil will not Coalesce with Sinn Féin in governance of the Republic.

For those who wish to join me in breathlessly following the returns as they creep in :) here’s the Radio Telefís Éireann election 2007 main page.

UPDATE 3:45 p.m. EDT: Taoiseach Bertie Ahern looks on pace for a 3rd term, though the identity of Fianna Fáil’s prospective coalition partner(s) is less clear. Here’s an auto-updating summary of the declared national results.

Also quite significantly, the Toilets are open again at the vote-counting centre for the Wicklow district:

…However due to a scare over water contamination, there is no drinking water available…

It was understood a tanker was en route to provide drinking water…

Drinking? Water? Shudder… :)

UPDATE 2, 1:00 a.m. EDT: With counting complete in 34 of the 43 constituencies, for 145 out of the 166 Dáil seats, Bertie Ahern’s Fianna Fáil (translation, Soldiers of Destiny :) has taken 72, to a combined total of 73 for all other parties and independents. / The Transfer votes in the 21 seats remaining Undeclared will tell the Tale.

UPDATE 3, Sun. May 27 4:30 a.m. EDT:

With all 166 seats Declared, Fianna Fáil wins 78 to an aggregate 88 for all others. Breakdown:

Fianna Fáil 78
Fine Gael 51
Labour 20
Progressive Democrats 2
Green Party 6
Sinn Féin 4
Others 5

Bertie Ahern is now Cogitating over with Whom to coalesce for to Get to Eighty-Four and a Government. / Evidently it can’t be #2 Fine Gael (which made a Big comeback in this election), since they are the core of the present-day center-left Opposition and (oddly) also the political descendant of the ancestral Pro-Partition Foe in the unCivil-War Troubles of the 1920’s. / And apparently, as well as somewhat Paradoxically, the hard-socialist Sinn Féin (whose showing was distinctly Disappointing) can’t be a Partner either, since Bertie has ruled that option Out despite his Coaxing & Bullying of SF into Participation in Peaceful nonParamilitary Politics in the North. / But, it seems, all Other options are on the Table in The Repooblich. :>

49 to 46, with 34 Abstentions:

Alex Salmond has made political history after becoming the first Nationalist to be elected first minister of Scotland.

The SNP leader was voted into office in parliament by 49 votes to 46, after he was supported by the Greens. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives abstained.

Mr Salmond will head the first minority administration since devolution, saying he would seek parliament’s approval “policy by policy”.

…The Scottish Parliament election almost two weeks ago saw the SNP win 47 seats, just one ahead of Scottish Labour, while the Scots Liberal Democrats were left with 16.

The Scottish Conservatives have 17 MSPs, although one of their number, Alex Fergusson, has taken up the politically neutral job of presiding officer.

The Scottish Greens have two MSPs and the colourful Independent Margo MacDonald, who abstained from the first minister vote altogether, was also re-elected.

Mr Salmond was voted first minister after seeing off a final challenge from Scottish Labour leader Jack McConnell.

He became the first Nationalist to win power in the party’s 73-year history.

His election was greeted with applause and cheering in the Scottish Parliament chamber.

…”I believe Scotland is ready for change, ready for reform,” he told MSPs

Mr McConnell, the former first minister, congratulated Mr Salmond on his victory and said he would be proud to lead the largest opposition party the Scottish Parliament has ever had.

…”Voltaire once said that governments need both shepherds and butchers and I think Alex may need to be more of a shepherd than a butcher in his new role, looking around this flock here and trying to secure majorities for his policies,” said Mr McConnell.

Read the whole bloody lot :). Oddly enough, though the Paper-thin-Plurality ScotNats now Lead their devolved government whilst the plainly second-Place Northern Ireland republicans play [appropriately] 2nd Fiddle :) in Theirs, it seems that the Northeast Ulster rebels may be Chronologically closer to their goal of a united Ireland than the Highlands & Islands folk are to theirs of an independent Scotland. / Go figure, Angus. :)

* * * * * * * * * *
In Other UK news, looks like GordonBrown has a Labour Lock on 10 Downing come 27 June; and seems Prince Harry will not be deployed to Iraq after all. Now why couldn’t they have just Announced that in the First place? Bloody ‘ell. Get ye the Sons your Fathers got, and God will save the Queen. (Apologies to A.E. Housman :)

144 of the 275 members of the Iraqi parliament, including Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds have signed a petition that would require setting a timetable for the withdrawal of American forces in Iraq. The petition is being currently being drafted into a bill. The petition allegedly mirrors similar efforts by Democratic lawmakers here in the U.S.

Petition sponsors say that the withdrawal timetable would need to be accompanied by a build up of Iraqi security forces, although nothing has so far been said as to what benchmarks will be used for measuring their readiness.

President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki both oppose setting a timetable for withdrawl.

“You see, we lost the Ent Albatross wives. We lost them and cannot find them.”

A lovesick albatross has spent the last 40 years unsuccessfully looking for romance in Scotland, 8,000 miles away from his natural breeding grounds.

The lonely bird, dubbed Albert, is thought to have first arrived in Scotland after being blown off course in the South Atlantic in 1967.

For the past four decades he has been engaged in a futile attempt to woo gannets on several remote islands.

But experts said Albert had no prospect of finding a mate so far from home.

You know, Albert the Albatross isn’t the first creature to spend many lonely years in Scotland, unable to find a mate from within his own species. He just needs to discover the solution that other lovesick Scotsmen stumbled upon long ago. :)

(Hat tip: my dad.)

And what sweet Doves, their hour come ’round at last,
Flutter toward Belfast to be born?

{ ~ with Deepest apologies to W.B. Yeats :}

It being the day some swore they would never See, the Democratic Unionist Party-Sinn Fein coalition government has quietly & politely taken office :

Northern Ireland’s major Protestant and Catholic parties joined together Tuesday to form a power-sharing government, marking a “new era of politics” and an end to three decades of sectarian conflict in the province.

Protestant Democratic Unionist Party leader Ian Paisley was sworn in as the Northern Ireland assembly’s first minister and key player Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein will take on the role of deputy first minister.

…Paisley, 80, and McGuinness, 56, arrived within minutes of each other Tuesday morning and both set an optimistic tone.

“It is a special day because we’re making a new beginning,” Paisley said. “I believe we’re starting on a road which will bring us back to peace and to prosperity.”

Paisley’s deputy McGuinness, said he was “increasingly confident” that the new government would work, saying it was a “good day.”

“The happenings here today are surely going to represent a fundamental change of approach with parties moving forward together to build a better future for the people that we represent,” he said.

(Tony Blair & Bertie Ahern, proud parents of born-again Fraternal twins Ian & Martin, looked on, beaming. :)

…Dr. Brendan O’Duffy, a senior lecturer with Queen Mary University in London, told CNN there was still a threat of political gridlock and a lot of work to do looking forward. But goodwill between the players and the “delicate power sharing” would allow people to “clash constitutionally instead of violently,” he said.

Read the whole miraculous thing. And here’s to the grand Orange & Green Coalition. May all Good luck and Wisdom attend* their deliberations.

(*Also may I occasionally, disguised as the proverbial Fly on the Wall. Ohhh the backroom Meetings are goin’ to be Fierce. ;)

The AP has the guest list for tonight’s White House state dinner in honor of Queen Elizabeth II. In case anyone was wondering, Professor Kelley is not on it. :)

UPDATE: On a more serious Kelley-related note:

Back on March 5, several top Justice Department officials were summoned for an emergency meeting at the White House. On the agenda: Going over “what we are going to say” about why eight U.S. attorneys had been summarily fired.

The reason for the urgency: principal associate deputy attorney general William Moschella was testifying before the House Judiciary Committee the next day.

Deputy White House counsel William Kelley sent an e-mail over to Justice early in the afternoon, saying that he had “been tasked” with pulling the meeting together, and that “we have to get this group together with some folks here asap.”

The meeting was held at the White House later that day. And who did Kelley mean by “some folks here”? Well, among others, Karl Rove — the White House’s chief political operative, and the man who may very well have set the unprecedented dismissals in motion in the first place.

But after the coaching session, Moschella went out and told Congress that there was no significant White House involvement in the firings, as far as he knew.

Michael Isikoff writes in Newsweek: “Now some investigators are saying that Rove’s attendance at the meeting shows that the president’s chief political advisor may have been involved in an attempt to mislead Congress…”

A.P. ~

PARIS — Nicolas Sarkozy, a blunt and uncompromising pro-American conservative, was elected president of France Sunday with a mandate to chart a new course for an economically sluggish nation struggling to incorporate immigrants and their children.

Sarkozy defeated Socialist Ségolène Royal by 53-47 percent with 85 percent turnout, according to near-total results. It was a decisive victory for Sarkozy’s vision of freer markets and toughness on crime and immigration, over Royal’s gentler plan for preserving cherished welfare protections, including a 35-hour work week that Sarkozy called “absurd.”

“The people of France have chosen change,” Sarkozy told cheering supporters in a victory speech that sketched out a stronger global role for France and renewed partnership with the United States.

…Royal’s program seemed more in line with the policies pursued under the outgoing Jacques Chirac — who is from Sarkozy’s own party, the Union for a Popular Movement. Chirac, 74, held the presidency for 12 years but failed repeatedly to push through reforms.

…Royal, an unmarried mother of four, would have been France’s first female president. Her defeat could throw her party into disarray, with splits between those who say it must remain firm to its leftist traditions and others who want a shift to the political center like socialist parties elsewhere in Europe.

Il faut tout lire (Translatory hat-tip: Leanna Loomer :).

PS (Dept. of Fair Warnings :) ~ Next up: Eire, May 24. / Seems there’s somesort of a McKerfuffle :> over Bertie’s personal Finances. Picky, picky :). Ohhh it’s goin’ to be Fierce ;].

Queen Elizabeth II is coming to the White House, and President Bush is brushing up on his manners. Heh.

But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain;
The best-laid schemes o’ mice an ‘men
Gang aft agley,
An’lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!
~ Robert Burns, “To A Mouse”

The Electoral Commission said it had begun “with immediate effect” an investigation into the Holyrood election voting chaos.

The polls have been hit by major problems with seven counts suspended and up to 100,000 ballot papers spoilt.

The Scotland Office said “serious technical failures” had delayed the announcement of some results.

Confusion about how to fill in ballot papers and problems with postal votes have also been blamed for the problems.

…Concerns have been raised about the decision to stage the Scottish Parliament and the local authority elections on the same day.

Voters were presented with two ballot papers and different voting systems.

The local authority ballot used the new Single Transferable Vote system.

…During his acceptance speech as the new MSP for the Gordon constituency, SNP leader Alex Salmond criticised the voting arrangements and also earlier problems with postal voting.

He said: “The postal voting arrangements for this election across Scotland were totally inadequate.

“It is also the case that the decision to conduct an STV election at the same time as a first-past-the-post ballot for the Scottish Parliament was deeply mistaken.

“As a direct result, tens of thousands of votes across Scotland have been discounted. That is totally unacceptable in a democratic society.”

Of course what we Have here (primarily) is: Voter Error. Exacerbated by an unfamiliar, and bifurcated, new balloting system. I.e., forget Birnam wood: ’tis Palm Beach County come to Dunsinane :}. Naturally the always-heroic election officials :> tried to Warn the Politicoes ahead of time, telling them ‘You know, there are ways you can Mitigate some of these predictable problems.’ But No. ;]

In a Presumably unrelated (??? :) election glitch, a disgruntled voter in Edinburgh bashed the ballot boxes with a Golf club and Ripped up the Voting Papers, causing “absolute bedlam” amid “scenes of terror”. (Actually, it occurs to me that if a few Palm Beach County oldsters had Protested at the Polls that way early on Election Day 2000, Al Gore might be President today. :)

More after the jump…

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