Fiddle in the middle and I can’t catch Josie
Fiddle in the middle and I can’t get around.
Fiddle in the middle and I can’t catch Josie
Hello Gordon Brown!

(Does anyone get that reference without Googling it? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?)

Unrest in Tehran.

Andrew Sullivan on the looming possibility of war with Iran: “I worry about this not because I think we should never wield the threat of military force against Iran. It’s because events seem to be favoring the West in Iran anyway and a Cheney-driven bombing campaign could reverse it.”

P.S. Speaking of which…

I for one welcome our cigar-shaped brilliant white light overlords.

P.S. Speaking of spacecraft… the Space Shuttle Atlantis is about to land in California.

UPDATE: The Shuttle has landed safely.

According to the article in The Irish Independent, Tony has been a closeted (not to say, Cloistered :) follower of the Faith for a long time, but feared to make it Official whilst still PM because of potential constitutional difficulties:

Tony Blair is “certain” to become a Roman Catholic shortly after he steps down from office next week, friends of the British PM have said. They believe it will happen “sooner rather than later”.

Mr Blair is likely to discuss his conversion with Pope Benedict XVI, with whom he will hold talks in Rome tomorrow after attending his last summit of European Union leaders in Brussels.

…There have been persistent rumours that the Prime Minister would convert to Catholicism but Downing Street has always insisted that he remains a member of the Church of England.

Now friends say Mr Blair will formalise his already close affiliation to the Catholic Church. They say his “spiritual guide” in making the decision has been his wife, Cherie. They have brought up their four children as Catholics.

…It is believed that Mr Blair decided to remain an Anglican while he was Prime Minister because of the possible legal and political difficulties of converting while in office.

Although Britain has never had a Catholic prime minister, the church has said there would be no constitutional bar to Mr Blair joining while he was still in office. But some lawyers believe the 1829 Emancipation Act, which granted civil rights to Roman Catholics, may still prevent a Catholic from becoming Prime Minister. It says that no Catholic adviser to the monarch can hold civil or military office.

…As Prime Minister Mr Blair has been cautious about his religious beliefs. As Alastair Campbell, his former director of communications, once famously said: “We don’t do God.”

Read the whole lot.

PS: In other news of British spiritual practices :), the Ministry of Justice has created its own home team of morris dancers ~

A team of morris dancing civil servants from the new Ministry of Justice have been given permission to call themselves the Lord Chancellor’s Folk.

The Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer, gave the go-ahead after considering a two page report prepared by an official in his private office.

…In the two page submission, leaked to The Times newspaper, a member of Lord Falconer’s private office briefs him on the history of morris dancing.

The document says the newly-formed Ministry of Justice group dance in the Cotswolds’ Tradition and in the Barmpton Style, which involves the “use of handkerchiefs and sticks”.

…It adds: “Morris dancing is currently one of the Icons of England on the Department of Culture, Media and Sport site, alongside a cup of tea, a stiff upper lip and a bowler hat.”

….a Ministry of Justice spokesman denied time had been wasted on the issue and said staff members were entitled to a hobby.

[Spot on. / ~ the civilservantpensioner guestclogger :]

…The Ministry of Justice has recently been under fire after Lord Falconer announcing 25,000 prisoners could be released early on licence to ease prison overcrowding in England and Wales.

View the whole dance. :)

On the Drudge Report at last check, just below the masthead:

Heh.

Again with the terrorist squirrels!

I’m surprised Dave Barry isn’t all over this story.

Perhaps terrorist squirrels are also at fault for the computer problems on the international space station? Though the Russians seem more keen to blame us. To which I say, blame Canada.

After 4 days of infighting between Fatah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has dismissed the Hamas led government and declared a state of emergency. Hamas had declared today that the territories are now under its Islamic rule which led to the declaration.

The European Union has suspended all aid to the territories and Israel has expressed grave concerns over the development.

More details here

Margie Kieper looks at the aftermath of Cyclone Gonu in Oman, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Despite weakening as it approached shore, the storm still did a lot of damage. At least $1 billion in damage, in fact, according to this report. But “Oman is relying on its own resources in cleaning up from the worst natural disaster to hit the country since record-keeping started in 1945. The government has not asked for international help and did not accept the US Navy’s offer of aid.” The death toll is at least 70 — 30 in Oman, 40 in Iran.

Joe Lieberman says that we need to “be prepared” to hit back at Iran for killing our troops in Iraq, “and to me, that would include a strike over the border into Iran, where we have good evidence that they have a base at which they are training these people coming back into Iraq to kill our soldiers.”

I think such a strike would probably be unwise, all things considered, but it would certainly be justified if such a base does indeed exist — and I definitely think we should “be prepared” to do it, and should actively consider it as an option (even if it’s ultimately rejected). A strike on Iran isn’t exactly a good option, but neither is standing around idly while they attack our troops with impunity. If we can achieve what we want through negotiation, great — but what if we can’t? Advocates of diplomacy need to remember that it’s a means to an end, not an end in itself.

At Daily Kos, of course, this story is fodder for a fresh round of Lieberman-bashing. Writes the poster: “If Lieberman really wanted to stop what he believes are Iranian-sponsored attacks on our troops, well, then, he should be demanding that we bring our troops home.” Ah yes, because abject surrender isn’t just one possible option, it’s the only option.

(Note: I’m not saying that “bringing our troops home” can’t be justified on grounds that would prevent it from being an “abject surrender.” I’m saying that if the stated justification is “we’re bringing our troops home to stop Iranian attacks against them,” then that would be abject surrender. To Iran. Which I tend to think is a bad thing. In other words, that’s the worst argument for troop withdrawal I’ve ever heard.)

(Second note: Nor am I presuming that “abject surrender” might not be the right course of action. Maybe it is! But one should be honest if that’s what one is advocating, and one must grapple with the adverse consequences if so. Surrender, like “peace,” is not costless.)

Tropical Cyclone Gonu has weakened to a tropical storm as it heads toward southeastern Iran, but not before killing at least 15 people in Oman.

Margie Kieper has much more.

Margie Kieper has the latest on Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which is skirting the coast of Oman as a Category 1 storm. Thank goodness for the weakening — but this is still the first hurricane-strength cyclone to directly impact Oman since records have been kept.

It’s now expected to head toward the coast of Iran. I blame Bush.

P.S. The Oil Drum looks at the possible energy implications.

In today’s L.A. Times, Mickey Kaus compares Bush’s immigration gambit with his Iraq gambit, and finds a number of discouraging similarities. Hmm.

Tropical Cyclone Gonu has mercifully weakened, though it retains major-hurricane status as a Cat. 3 with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The official forecast calls for it to remain just offshore of Oman as a Cat. 2 tonight (Eastern time), then make landfall in southeastern Iran as a Cat. 1 tomorrow night (again, Eastern time). Margie Kieper and Dr. Jeff Masters, the Weather Channel Blog, Weather Matrix and The Oil Drum have more.

The first recorded Category Five storm in the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, is barreling toward Oman and the Persian Gulf region. Check out the satellite views:

According to this tracking map, it’s expected to reach the coast of Oman late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, Eastern time. (Hat tip: Andrew Leyden.) So it looks like there will soon be more than one “surge” happening the Middle East.

What’s worse, Oman may not know what hit it: according to Global Surf News, “While tropical storms have hit Oman in the past, they are rare, and there is no record of a hurricane-strength cyclone striking the country. The last tropical storm to smack the nation was in June 1996.” Hopefully Gonu weakens a bit before making landfall!

There could be economic impacts, too. Dr. Jeff Masters writes, “Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.”

Speaking of Dr. Masters, he’s jumped on the anti-Barry bandwagon — and I’m not talking about Barry Bonds, but rather the dearly departed Tropical Storm Barry, which formed on Friday (the opening day of hurricane season), soaked Florida, then winked out of official existence after a mere 24 hours. Masters writes, “Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named ‘Subtropical Storm Barry’, and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over.” Margie Kieper is more emphatic:

Putting aside the unwelcome hype and “cry wolf” potential, maybe it’s best to just remember the ROFL moments associated with this chapter of the Atlantic 2007 hurricane season: that initial just-home-from-work oh-they-didn’t! moment when seeing the word “Barry” in the inbox (after which I generated a blog entry in record time — five minutes — then got on the phone with the equally-unbelieving Steve Gregory, where we hypered each other into a frenzy)…the comment by NWSFO Miami in their local discussion when Barry was named by NHC…the inability to provide Dvorak intensity estimates because there was nothing there except a LLCC (ok — that was hysterical — when has “shear” ever prevented Dvorak analysis, or, in the case of a subtropical cyclone, H-P technique)…just pick your favorite. Maybe NHC will quietly change it to subtropical in the post-season analysis.

Just to clarify, my take on Barry was that it tried to become tropical — obs showed that, although they also showed the extratropical nature of the disturbance — but there wasn’t persistent convection near the center, so it never developed, and did not fit the NHC definition of a TC. …

[I]s the situation with the generate-fear-and-hype media so out of control, that Barry was named, rather than risk some kind of media backlash, because no one believes that Florida residents can handle some minor coastal flooding, significant rain, and 25 mph winds, without framing it as a tropical storm? Or is it that no one thought they would prepare adequately unless it was called a tropical storm? Too bad for those who really did think they experienced one, because those folks will be caught unprepared when the genuine article shows up.

Alan Sullivan agrees: “[T]his was a marginal call for designation, following the even more marginal call last month. NHC has turned into a bunch of drama queens. There was a hybrid storm in the Gulf on day one of the official season, and it just had to get a name.”

LATER UPDATES ON GONU: here, here, here and here.