Proving once again that Australia is the new Florida, Cyclone Monica is threatening to make a second landfall — this time as a Category 5 cyclone. The Australian categories are a bit different than the ones we’re used to, and Monica would actually be a Category 4 if it were in the Atlantic, with 144 mph sustained winds. But that’s plenty bad enough — “the same intensity level observed in a strong category 4 hurricane like Charley, and stronger than Katrina and Rita were at landfall.”


Cyclone Monica this morning, just before hitting the Wessel Islands.

UPDATE, 1:45 PM: Holy cow, it keeps getting worse and worse:

This situation continues to deteriorate along the north coast of Australia. It is hard to imagine a worse situation in this area as Australian cyclones almost never reach this strength. Monica is currently much stronger than 1974’s Cyclone Tracy which is the benchmark storm for the area. As far as I can tell, Monica may be the most intense cyclone to ever impact the region or even Australia. However, records are hard to find. After striking Queensland a few days ago, Monica has crossed Gulf of Carpentaria and is strafing the coast of the Northern Territory. All of this comes as part of a recent string of cyclone strikes across the country. The latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Monica as a category 5 cyclone with sustained wind of 145 knots (167 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb.

Monica is now over Australia’s Wessel Islands, making Monica a far worse hurricane than anything seen in the Atlantic last summer. At 892 mb, Monica is stronger than the dreaded hurricanes Katrina and Rita ever were, never mind at landfall. The symmetry seen is Monica is flawless and it is rare to ever see a tropical system look so well-defined. …

The models are very consistent with a track just along the northern coast turning inland near Darwin. Such a pass by a category 5 cyclone along the coast would be very devastating to the whole region. Darwin residents should be prepared for a strike on Tuesday.

The American model ensemble forecasts are very consistent with the other models. This leaves little doubt to the destructive path that Monica is likely to take right over Darwin, the region’s largest city.

The models also indicate likely future intensification. With Monica already being an incredible category 5 cyclone, a bad situation is likely to get worse if that is possible.

Holy crap.

UPDATE, 4:00 PM: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

Jeff Masters has an excellent update, as usual:

Australia’s hurricane season continues its parade of unusually intense storms this year with the intensification of Cyclone Monica today into a huge Category 5 storm. The 12 GMT advisory this morning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Monica at 165 mph sustained winds and a 892 mb pressure, making it the second most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. The most intense Southern Hemisphere cyclone on record was Cyclone Zoe of 2003, which had a 879 mb pressure. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts Monica’s pressure at 905 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest cyclone on record. Reliable records of cyclone intensity only go back to the mid-1980s in the Southern Hemisphere, but two of top five strongest hurricanes ever recorded there have occurred this year–Tropical Cyclone Glenda (898 mb) from March, and now Monica. What’s really extraordinary about Monica is that she came so late in the season–tropical cyclone season is usually over by late April in the Southern Hemisphere. Monica’s formation echoes what happened in the Atlantic last year, with the intensification of Hurricane Wilma to a record 882 mb pressure very late in the hurricane season–October 19. When one adds in the $1 billion in devastation wrought in Queensland by Category 4 Cyclone Larry (915 mb) in March, Australians must feel like residents of hurricane alley in the Atlantic did last year, when three of the six strongest hurricanes on record occurred, causing the most damage ever–what’s going on with the weather? However, be reminded that the Northern Hemisphere Pacific Ocean had a very below-normal tropical cyclone season last year, and the Indian Ocean also had below normal activity.

Monica is expected to track just offshore the sparsely populated north coast of Australia today as it moves slowly westward. Darwin, the most heavily populated city in the region, will begin to feel Monica’s wind later today, and a direct hit is possible on Tuesday. Monica should slowly weaken before she gets to Darwin, since much of the circulation will be over land, and the eye will have to cross land as well. Still, Monica could still be a formidable Category 3 or 4 hurricane by then, and a direct hit on Darwin would likely cause severe damage.

(more…)

The Irish Trojan’s Blog: Australia’s #1 source for furry blonde crab-related news! :)

Dale Begg-Smith, the Australian mogul skier who won the gold medal yesterday, isn’t just a 21-year-old Olympic champion. He’s also a major Internet pest:

Begg-Smith was a key player in a company that infected other peoples’ computers with adware a.k.a. spyware.

Canadian-born Begg-Smith reportedly is president of AdsCPM Network (a.k.a. CPM Media Inc.), a firm notorious for using “driveby downloads,” security exploits, and other cheap tricks to install spyware (including keyloggers and browser hijackers) on unsuspecting Internet users’ computers. …

AdsCPM.com is currently offline, but an archived version of the site says the company served up 20 million pop-ups per day. Other sites hosted at the same IP address indicate the reach of the company’s spyware enterprise. They include two sites infamous for distributing spyware — FREESCRATCHANDWIN.COM and XZOOMY.COM, as well as one selling pop-up blocking software, kill-pop-ups.com. …

Begg-Smith’s business apparently enabled him to drive a Lamborghini, but it has cost individuals and corporations dearly to clean up the mess created by the spyware. …

Other sketchy sites associated with Begg-Smith include newtopsites.com, huntfly.com, and adultexpressview.com.

(Hat tip: Dane.)

Begg-Smith would rather not talk about this:

At his post-race press conference overnight, Begg-Smith became irritated when more questions were asked about his business. According to Canadian press reports he said: “I don’t know why we’re talking about the company. I just won Olympic gold.”

Perhaps people are asking the questions because, as the first above-linked articles notes, the Olympic Code of Ethics says participants “must not act in a manner likely to bring the reputation of the Olympic Movement into disrepute.”

In response to rumors about alleged violence by men of Arabic descent, a mob several-thousand strong has been on the rampage in Sydney, Australia. What started as a race riot is turning into minor chaos: shops are being destroyed, and innocent people are being attacked on the street. Yet some “reassuring” words from the Aussie PM:

Prime Minister John Howard called the violence “sickening” but denied it was underpinned by a vein of racism running through Australian society.

“I do not accept that there is underlying racism in this country,” he said.

OK, John. Go on believing that. In a place where “[i]n the last census in 2001, nearly a quarter of Australia’s 20 million people said they were born overseas,” you might have a bigger problem on your hands.

Posted by Brian (Briandot)

A French woman on her way to Australia decided she wanted a smoke, so she attempted to open the door — while the plane was in flight. Thankfully, a flight attendant was able to restrain the (drunk) woman and put her back in her seat. Apparently she was just a bit under the influence:

Defense lawyer Helen Shilton told the court Sellies was terrified of flying and had taken sleeping tablets with alcohol before takeoff.

She was placed on AU$1000 bond, and told to behave herself. :)

Posted by Brian (Briandot)

Reuters:

Eight Sydney men arrested on terrorism charges may have been planning a bomb attack against the city’s nuclear reactor, police said on Monday. …

[P]olice said three of the men were stopped near Sydney’s Lucas Heights nuclear reactor in December 2004. A security gate lock had recently been cut.

An 18 month investigation led to the arrest of 17 people in Australia, including outspoken Islamic cleric, Abu Bakr, who publicly supported Osama bin Laden. According to the article, authorities also found suspicious items “including unidentified substances, firearms, travel documents, computers and backpacks”. (Side note: other than the firearms, How many people carry the rest? But moving on…)

This is seen as a major victory, especially given the attacks against Australians overseas, particularly in tourist spots such as Indonesia and Bali.

Posted by Brian (Briandot)

An Australian reader e-mailed to tell me that Apple has launched the Down Under version of the iTunes Music Store. (Hey, I gotta post something for the Aussies, they make up 0.35% of my audience!)

They’re also being sued. Apple, that is, not the Aussies. :)

The Fog of War is thick over London today, after officers shot and killed a man on the Tube for fear that he was a suicide bomber. Some eyewitness reports say the man had wires hanging out of his belt (note to self…) and that police shot him after he ignored their repeated commands to stop, while others say that he was carrying nothing remotely bomb-like and that the police shoved him to the ground before shooting him five times at point-blank range. Obviously, there’s a slight difference there. So far as I can tell, it’s simply too early to know what the hell actually happened, or to jump to any conclusions, either favorable or unfavorable toward the police officers. More here.

It is certainly not too early to say, however, that Australian Prime Minister John Howard is exactly right in responding thusly to the notion that the Brits and Aussies could extricate themselves from this whole terrorist mess simply by giving Germany the Sudetenland withdrawing their troops from Iraq:

Once a country allows its foreign policy to be determined by terrorism, it’s given the game away, to use the vernacular. And no Australian government that I lead will ever have policies determined by terrorism or terrorist threats, and no self-respecting government of any political stripe in Australia would allow that to happen.

Can I remind you that the murder of 88 Australians in Bali took place before the operation in Iraq.

And I remind you that the 11th of September occurred before the operation in Iraq.

Can I also remind you that the very first occasion that bin Laden specifically referred to Australia was in the context of Australia’s involvement in liberating the people of East Timor. Are people by implication suggesting we shouldn’t have done that?

When a group claimed responsibility on the website for the attacks on the 7th of July, they talked about British policy not just in Iraq, but in Afghanistan. Are people suggesting we shouldn’t be in Afghanistan? …

The objective evidence is that Australia was a terrorist target long before the operation in Iraq. And indeed, all the evidence, as distinct from the suppositions, suggests to me that this is about hatred of a way of life, this is about the perverted use of principles of the great world religion that, at its root, preaches peace and cooperation. And I think we lose sight of the challenge we have if we allow ourselves to see these attacks in the context of particular circumstances rather than the abuse through a perverted ideology of people and their murder.

Amen. The Anchoress makes the same point graphically; Oliver Roy points out that “In justifying its terrorist attacks by referring to Iraq, Al Qaeda is looking for popularity or at least legitimacy among Muslims. But many of the terrorist group’s statements, actions and non-actions indicate that this is largely propaganda, and that Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine are hardly the motivating factors behind its global jihad.” (Read the whole thing.)

But while those arguments are certainly persuasive, I think the utter wrong-headedness of the “it’s because of Iraq” argument is best expressed (albeit unwittingly) by Sheikh Omar Bakri Mohammed, a radical Muslim cleric in England who notoriously praised the 9/11 attacks (and who is, at best, an apologist for Islamist terrorism generally). He tries to blame Britain’s involvement in the Iraq war for the recent attacks in London, but then adds: “I would like to see the Islamic flag fly, not only over number 10 Downing Street, but over the whole world.”

That is what we are dealing with here. The Islamist radicals don’t just want us out of their backyards — they want to take over ours. Just like we were foolish to ignore Hitler’s long-term goals for “Greater Germany” and pretend that he would be satisfied with a few incremental concessions here and there, we are foolish to ignore the Islamists’ long-term goal of a worldwide Islamic state.

Withdrawing from Iraq for fear of further attacks would not stop them — it would not even slow them down. On the contrary, it would encourage them, because it would show them that they can convince us to change our policies by terrorizing us. It would give them reason to hope that, with a few more attacks and a few more surrenders, maybe they really will be able to see the Islamic flag flying over the whole world. We must not feed that fantasy.

That’s not to say the Iraq war is necessarily justified — that’s a separate debate, but the debate must be conducted on our terms, not theirs. Whatever else might be said about Iraq, the terrorists’ ire is NOT a valid reason to consider withdrawing. Appeasement is not the answer.

Never give in–never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy. –Winston Churchill

CNN-TV just reported that a tidal gauge at the Cocos Islands, an Australian territory that is almost due south of the epicenter of today’s 8.2 earthquake, observed a “small tsunami.” That backs up previous speculation that the energy from this tsunami, unlike the last one, was focused primarily southward, which is very good news, since there isn’t much land to the south.

But now Reuters is reporting that “dozens” have died and houses have been destroyed on Mias (?) Island. Apparently that island is off the west coast of Sumatra… but that may be just earthquake damage, not tsunami damage.

UPDATE: Maybe they said Nias Island.

UPDATE 2: Confirmed; Nias Island was hit. But not by the tsunami, just by the effects of the earthquake. There have been “no reports of any tsunamis” on Nias.

In other news, the earthquake has been upgraded to an 8.7.

As for the Cocos Islands, apparently there isn’t much of a threat to life and property there, because there’s no continental shelf to funnel the tsunami wave into a massive wall of water.

As the wave continues to travel south, I wonder if Antarctica will get clobbered? Penguins and seals, washed out to sea! Oh, the humanity! :)

It’s been almost three hours since the earthquake. The fact that we haven’t yet heard about any tsunamis in Indonesia seems like good news to me. I know the lines of communication are slower there than here, but surely we would have heard something. And the official tsunami bulletin did say: “AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE DANGER HAS PASSED IF NO TSUNAMI WAVES ARE OBSERVED IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN THREE HOURS OF THE EARTHQUAKE.”

If the tsunami energy really did propagate to the south, as some scientists are suggesting, I’m still wondering about northwestern Australia, which is south-southeast of the epicenter. Not sure if the waves would have reached there yet.

UPDATE: UPI reports:

The tsunamis that were feared resulting from the earthquake that struck the Indian Ocean basin Monday do not appear to have occurred.

But one of CNN’s anchors is saying that there “was one [a tsunami] that may have been spotted.” Not sure what that means.

UPDATE 2: CNN weather reporter Jacque Jeras says a tide gauge observed a “small tsunami” at the Cocos (?), from the Australian weather bureau, several hundred miles southwest of the epicenter.

Continued above.

BBC Breaking News Alert: “Geologists say a major earthquake has rocked the Indian Ocean off northern Sumatra, triggering a tsunami warning.”

UPDATE: Initial reports say it was an 8.2. That is a big one, though an order of magnitude weaker than the 9.3 quake that triggered the December tsunami. But depending on the exact undersea conditions, this could cause a tsunami. Pray that it doesn’t.

UPDATE 2: Watching CNN now. It’s after midnight in Indonesia. The quake may have been as big as 8.5. Conflicting early reports are common; the December quake was initially estimated in the 8 range as well. No word on any tsunami impact yet.

UPDATE 3: The earthquake occurred at 11:09 AM EST.

Here’s the tsunami bulletin:

THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A WIDELY DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI IN THE OCEAN OR SEAS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE. …

THIS CENTER DOES NOT HAVE SEA LEVEL GAUGES OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC SO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DETECT OR MEASURE A TSUNAMI IF ONE WAS GENERATED. AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE DANGER HAS PASSED IF NO TSUNAMI WAVES ARE OBSERVED IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN THREE HOURS OF THE EARTHQUAKE.

CNN is reporting “widespread and absolute panic” among Banda Aceh residents, racing inland and to higher ground. But “no reports of damage or major casualties yet.”

UPDATE 4: An expert on CNN says we should presume that there was a tsunami, but because the rupture along the fault likely went south from the epicenter, the primary tsunami energy might be focused southward rather than westward.

There isn’t as much land to the south as there is to the west, but there are some islands down there. Also, I wonder if the northwestern coast of Australia could be impacted?

UPDATE 5: Here’s a map, and here’s another map, of the epicenter.

FINAL UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

I’m ending this post now; further updates will be in a new post above. Or just go to my homepage for the latest.

BONUS UPDATE: Here’s another new post, with the news that a “small tsunami” has been detected at the Cocos Islands, an Australian territory pretty much due south of the epicenter. Also, the earthquake itself has produced significant damage on Nias Island off the coast of Sumatra, but there have been no reports of tsunamis in or near Sumatra.

Cyclone Ingrid’s third punch was its worst, apparently:

A remote tourist resort was virtually destroyed and a small aboriginal town damaged on Wednesday when a severe cyclone slammed into the northern Australian coast for the third time, officials said.

Cyclone Ingrid, packing winds of up to 260 kmh (162 mph), hit the tiny town and aboriginal reserve of Kalumburu…and then devastated the exclusive Faraway Bay resort.

Here’s a map.

Andrew rightly points out, via e-mail, that I’ve been lax in my weather reporting with regard to Cyclone Ingrid, “one of Australia’s worst tropical storms in 30 years.” Ingrid is a Category 4 hurricane (they call ‘em “cyclones” down under) and it is approaching the northeastern Queensland coast. It’s expected to make landfall in about 24 hours, but the good news is, it’s forecasted to weaken further.

Can’t make it up:

Tasmanian paper made from ‘roo poo

BBC - Visitors to Tasmania will soon be able to buy a new souvenir of their Australian experience - paper made from kangaroo manure.

“It’s a great product for tourists, but it’s also something that gets our eco-friendly message home to a lot of people,” said Joanne Gair, manager of Creative Paper Tasmania.

The first batch of paper has now been produced, but Ms Gair conceded that there was one remaining problem - finding a constant supply of kangaroo and wallaby dung.

“At the moment we are finding it very difficult to get the quantity of poo we need,” she said.

“We are hoping the community will help by collecting poo for us and dropping it off in plastic bags. New or old, we’ll take it all,” she told the Advocate newspaper.

In addition to the eco-tourism market, I’m guessing the product will prove popular with people who like to keep sh*tlists. That being Most of us, this is Huge. Ms. Gair & CPT are going to become extremely effluent. We have seen the Future & it is Wallaby Droppings. Bet the Hairy-nosed Wombats get involved in the Supply Chain too. Maybe the Duckbilled Platypi, monotremes though they be, could Buy into it even.

Read the whole thing. Also here’s the local Tasmanian take on it:

Mrs Gair said the poo paper would be launched during Innovation Week in mid-May provided the community rallied behind the poo drive.

Surely they will. No worries mate.

:)