Here’s a map showing the “risk of 8 inches or more of snowfall” falling tonight and tomorrow from the latest lake-effect event. South Bend is in the southern portion of the “high risk” area. And the radar shows that right now, we’re in the bullseye. (A glance out the window also shows that.) This one may be for real, folks. Up to a foot is possible in some spots.

UPDATE: I’ve gotten LoyCam up and running for the occasion; it’s pointing out the window toward the snowy yard. You can see for yourself here. It updates every 20 seconds or so (though you have to hit reload).

While Brendan may get lots of snow near the end of the weekend along with bitter cold (forecast here), an even stranger series of events is taking place in the Borderland.

You see, we don’t usually get snow. Not this often (some on Nov 29, Jan 2, Jan 5, and both Tuesday and Friday of this week, accumulating both times). Latest updates courtesy of KFOX Channel 14 out of El Paso.

It’s 41 degrees right now, after 33-36 this morning. Only one day this week has it been well beyond 50 degrees, but it’s supposed to get to seasonal normals in the next few days.

Bring on 60!

Indiana students: “Stand up, old people!”

Indiana old people: “Shut up, you punks!”

Heh. I love it!

(Hat tip: La Rev.)

Oh, goody:

…HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…

.MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT…MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHWEST WHICH WILL FAVOR A SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING OVER LAPORTE AND STARKE COUNTIES AND THEN DRIFT EAST AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN AREAS WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS THE LONGEST…SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. . . .

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN N. IN HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING & CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE EAST & WEST AT TIMES.WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS AS THE BAND SHIFTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.CREATING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS.WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW.

Of course, 1) the last time they said this, it was a dud here in South Bend, with the heavy snowfall well to the northeast; and 2) to Buffalonians like Becky, calling 5-10 inches a “heavy” lake-effect snow event is blasphemy. But still.

I was in the midst of watching the premiere of 24 on Fox, when the signal started getting all garbled, and after a minute or two, cut out completely. It’s been dead air for a good five minutes now. Is anyone else having this same problem? Is it just a South Bend thing? I.e., is it just the local affiliate? Or is it the national network? It’s not the cable company — all other channels are working fine.

UPDATE: Seeing as how the website of the local affiliate, WSJV Channel 28, won’t load, I’m guessing they’re where the problem lies. Besides, if the national network had crapped out, Drudge would have something by now.

Anyway, there are a lot of irate 24 fans in the South Bend / Elkhart region right now.

UPDATE, 9:25 PM: The channel just popped back on, after 10+ minutes off the air. They’re in commercials again, suggesting we missed an entire segment of the show. (They were in commercials when the problem started.)

P.S. I blame F**k da Eagles girl. :)

UPDATE 2: One of my classmates wrote an e-mail to the local Fox affiliate about the incident. It’s reprinted after the jump.

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The town council of Roseland, a tiny community just north of Notre Dame, has been embroiled in controversy for some time. Roseland’s Wikipedia entry explains: “For the past several years, the 3-person Roseland town council has been largely dominated by the husband and wife pair of David and Dorothy Snyder. This caused a number of controversial issues that led to dramatically increased press. Since the pair had a majority of votes, they could pass any legislation they both agreed on. Issues included pricey sign ordinances [and] abrupt zoning changes.” But now Dorothy has been replaced; more here.

Anyway, at the first meeting of the new council term, David Snyder was ejected. Then, at the second meeting, a fight broke out:

One day after the new town council officially takes over, council member David Snyder apparently beats-up the man who replaced his wife on that council, Ted Penn.

It happened at the conclusion of a town council redevelopment meeting at the town hall.

After the incident, Tedd Penn, who was recently elected Town Councilman, was taken to the hospital by ambulance.

He has an injury to the back of his head, and a cut on his lip.

David Snyder was transported to the St. Joseph County jail by Roseland Police.

He has been taken in for battery.

Heh. (Hat tip: Nick.)

The sky here in South Bend is crystal clear, so if that holds up (knock on wood), it should be perfect Shuttle-and-ISS-viewing weather tonight at 6pm!

Again, the Shuttle and the ISS will be visible from here between 5:59 PM and 6:04 PM — and it’ll be less than an hour after undocking, so they should be two separate dots in the sky, with a tiny space between them.

I’m really excited to see what the two spacecraft will look like flying side-by-side. I’ve never seen that before. I truly have no idea how distinct they’ll appear from this distance. Will the gap between them be visible? I don’t know, but I’m hoping for a photo where you can see two separate lines! :) The two objects are most likely to appear distinct when they’re closest (and thus nearest to the “top” of the sky), which is at 6:01:33 PM here in South Bend. At that time, you’ll want to be looking almost due southeast, about halfway between the horizon and straight up.

Seriously, though, don’t worry about those details… just go outside a couple minutes before 6:00 PM and look to the southern sky. At first, you won’t be sure what you’re looking at, and then, all of a sudden, you won’t be able to miss it/them. They’ll look like a distant airplane (or perhaps two distant airplanes, very close to one another), except moving in a strikingly straight line, at a strikingly steady speed, and never blinking. They’ll travel from right to left across the sky, so that within a couple of minutes, you’ll be looking at the eastern sky instead of the southern sky. Anyway, yeah, it/they are easy to spot, and it’s totally worth stepping outside for a few minutes to watch.

If you’re not in the South Bend area, but you’re in the eastern or central United States and you have a clear sky, you too can see the Shuttle and ISS tonight — but the details above don’t apply to you. Go to Heavens Above and enter your location to find out details.

Well, I saw it:

That’s a 10-second exposure of the Shuttle and the International Space Station, docked together, flying past the constellation Sagitta, and specifically the red giant Gamma Sagittae. Well, they weren’t really flying past Gamma Sagittae; really, they were about 200 miles above northern Missouri and southern Iowa. But they appeared to be flying past Gamma Sagittae. :)

Admittedly it’s nothing overly spectacular, but it’s always fun to see the Space Shuttle or the ISS, and it’s especially cool when you know it’s both of ‘em. Tomorrow’s pass (5:59 - 6:04 PM, in the southern and then eastern sky) should be really cool, with the Shuttle and ISS undocked but near each other; that’s something I’ve never seen. I don’t know how distinct they’ll look in the sky, but I hope to find out! Assuming the sky is clear (and the forecast looks excellent, knock on wood), I’ll definitely be out taking pictures, and maybe a video too.

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The Space Shuttle Discovery and the International Space Station, docked together, will fly overhead this evening, and should be visible from South Bend for approximately two minutes in the western sky, from 7:11 PM until 7:13:13 PM (at which point, at a 41-degree altitude, they will pass into the Earth’s shadow and thus disappear from sight).

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When I saw a faint aurora borealis display from Douglas Road late Thursday night, I thought it was pretty cool. Such things aren’t visible too often from Indiana, after all. But as I’ve read other people’s reports and looked at other people’s pictures, I’ve become slightly bummed, because it’s clear that if I had gone outside a few hours earlier, and/or ventured just a bit north of town, I would have gotten a much better show — possibly something like this, or better. If only the Northern lights had come at any other time than the night before my FedTax exam!!

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Yikes.

Well, technically they’re over Michigan and Ontario, but they’re visible from Indiana:

The green area is the auroral oval, hundreds of miles north and hundreds dozens of miles up. It doesn’t look anything like that to the naked eye; the photo was taken with a 15-second exposure, and then digitally enhanced to bring out the color. (Here’s the original version of the photo, and here’s the enhanced version.)

To the naked eye, that brilliant green area is a barely visible hazy zone in the sky; you’d never notice it if you weren’t looking for it. As you can see, it’s easily outshined by the light dome of, er, I guess it must be either Edwardsburg or Dowagiac, both of which are quite small. I didn’t even realize they had “light domes,” but that white area on the right is clearly manmade light coming from somewhere. (You can see a wider view showing the whole “dome” here.) [UPDATE: Upon further review, the last time I took pictures from virtually the same spot, at 2:30 AM on a Thursday morning, there was no light dome. So I guess it isn’t the “dome” of a city/town some miles away, but rather, the light from some really bright lights down the road that are only turned on during business hours.]

Anyway, point is, the aurora show here in South Bend is hardly spectacular to the naked eye. But still: I saw Northern lights! Woohoo! :)

The above picture, by the way, was taken at 10:29 PM EST from a field along Douglas Road, across the street from Debbie Werbrouck’s School of Dance, where — as I’d ascertained during a previous (unsuccessful) aurora hunt last year — there’s a reasonably clear and reasonably dark horizon looking due north.

In addition to seeing the Northern lights, I also saw two Geminids, one of which was quite bright. And, I just noticed, I think I got a photo of a third Geminid! It’s faint, and I didn’t notice it at the time, but looky here:

I do believe that orange line is a meteor — and it’s passing right through the Northern lights. (Well, not literally, but from my visual perspective.) Sweet!

Anyway, I’ll post more aurora photos tomorrow, or perhaps Saturday. While the aurora borealis certainly makes for a worthy study break, it’s also been a lengthy one, and I really need to get back to FedTax, considering the exam is in just over nine hours and I’m still woefully unprepared. Grumble, grumble, stupid Internal Revenue Code…

P.S. You can see photos of my previous glimpse of the Northern lights, back in 2003 in Connecticut, here.

Previous posts about this geomagnetic storm can be found here, here and here. And like I said, stay tuned for more photos of tonight’s aurora viewing.

The much-ballyhooed lake-effect snow “storm” was underwhelming here in South Bend, producing perhaps an inch of white stuff — though of course that doesn’t take into account the massive snow drifts of one-and-a-half to two inches. :)

I’m not too surprised; lake-effect snow is notoriously difficult to predict, as tiny variations in wind direction can vastly change the forecast. Anyway, although we didn’t exactly get snowed in, Robbie did get his first opportunity of the season to run around in the snow:

It could be a snowy 24 hours in the South Bend area, starting tonight:

A lake effect snow watch remains in effect from late tonight through Thursday Evening.

Lake effect snow is expected late tonight and Thursday… gradually tapering off Thursday night. Snowfall could be heavy with total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible in areas where the heaviest snow bands persist. At this time the heaviest snowfall is expected to be north of a Michigan City to Warsaw line… including the cities of Benton Harbor… South Bend… Goshen… Elkhart… and Cassopolis. In addition to the lake effect snow… strong west to northwest winds could cause blowing and drifting snow.

Here’s a (rather amateurish-looking) National Weather Service map showing that South Bend is solidly in the “high risk” area for significant accumulation:

Well, hey, better on a pre-exam “stop day” than on an exam day, right? And besides, nothing bolsters the Christmas spirit like a bit of snow. (But will it also bolster the Notre Dame spirit at the Alabama game tomorrow night? ROLL THE TIDE!)

Hopefully they’ll have the heat back on in time for this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

…A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE MIDWEST…

.MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RACE NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY EVENING TO NORTHERN OHIO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SNOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY…ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MONTICELLO TO THREE RIVERS WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES.

. . . THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET…FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

The honeymoon is over, people!