Something happened yesterday on Comet Holmes, an obscure comet fainter than Pluto.  Until yesterday.  From Space Weather:

Whatever is happening to Comet 17P/Holmes, it’s weird. "I’ve never seen anything like it! It almost looks like a planet," says Eric Allen …The comet has no tail, a remarkable golden color, and yesterday it shocked astronomers with a spectacular eruption, brightening almost a million-fold from 17th to 2.5th magnitude in a matter of hours.

To put that in perspective, this is similar to the brightness of stars in the Big Dipper or Orion’s Belt, easily visible to the unaided eye from within major light-polluted cities.

Unlike the traditional notion of a comet’s appearance, this comet has no visible tail.  It’s just a small bright sphere, even in a telescope.  To the eye, it’s more starlike in appearance than cometlike.

For a recent event, this makes sense, because a comet’s tail is formed by  loose material with low mass and high surface area being blown away from the sun by the pressure of sunlight.  Whatever broke free from Comet Holmes hasn’t had time to get affected by sunlight to form a tail.

The comet is favorably placed for observers in the northern hemisphere.  It’s in the constellation Perseus, which is up all night at this time of year.  Here’s a star map from Space Weather.  I don’t know if the comet will stay bright or fade quickly, but it’s worth watching to see what happens next.

In other celestial news, the space shuttle was launched Tuesday.  The orbital alignment isn’t favorable for visual observers in the United States, but there are a few passes that can be seen at southern latitudes (e.g. Florida, southern California).  Predictions can be made at Heavens Above.   I think there may be some better visual passes near the very end of the mission.

The 8 pm NHC advisory reports that Felix is now a Category 5.  Not unexpected, but it sure happened fast. 

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN … MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH… THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 934 MB

A NHC special statement reports Dean’s second landfall:

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO NEAR THE TOWN OF TECOLUTLA…JUST EAST OF GUTIERREZ ZAMORA AND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AT ABOUT 1130 AM CDT…1630 UTC. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF DEAN AT LANDFALL WAS 100 MPH…160 KPH….CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

The NHC’s 11 am EDT discussion talks about the hurricane’s development after emerging back over water:

RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD … THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT…MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY…THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

The NHC’s 11 am EDT advisory talks about current warnings and forecast conditions along the Mexican coast:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ … DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO… WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES … MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB.

Dr. Jeff Masters discusses early damage estimates:

Dean lost its eyewall and became rather disorganized from its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula, and is only now beginning to increase its winds. With only a few hours left before landfall, Mexico is fortunate that Dean is moving so quickly–20 mph–and does not have time to organize further. The Mexican coast near the landfall point is the most densely populated area Dean will affect, and damage there will probably exceed $1 billion. Risk Management Solutions has estimated the insured damage to the Yucatan was between $750 million and $1.5 billion. Total damage is typically double the insured damage, so the price tag for Dean will be very steep for Mexico. Dean also did an estimated $3 billion in damage to Jamaica, and $270 million to Martinique.

A special 8:35 pm Eastern update from the NHC:

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH…MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

At least we can stop saying that Dean is expected to reach Category 5 in the next 24 hours …

The space shuttle Endeavour will be visible tonight from much of the United States, as the shuttle prepares for landing Tuesday afternoon at the Kennedy Space Center. This is a somewhat rare opportunity, in part because the shuttle spends most of its time in orbit docked to the Space Station, and in part because the orbital alignment needs to be right for bringing the shuttle overhead shortly after sunset or before sunrise. But these conditions are met tonight - the two are presently undocked, so they can be seen separately as bright stars moving across the night sky; and the orbital alignment is bringing these objects over the United States shortly after sunset.

To get the exact time (and place in the sky) for your location, try orbital predictions at Heavens Above. Choose your geographic location, then click on 10-day predictions for ISS (space station), and look for a pass on the evening of the 20th (tonight). Shuttle and station will follow the same track across the sky, probably within 1 minute of each other. Both objects will be similar in brightness to Jupiter or Venus - meaning they’ll be easily visible to the unaided eye, even from the middle of a big city. The visiblity will be short, however, usually about two minutes total duration. I don’t know for sure which is which - I’ve seen conflicting reports about which object is leading at the moment.

For some locations of likely reader interest: From South Bend, IN they will rise in the NW, be directly overhead at 9:30, set in the SE. From Nashville, TN they will rise in the NW, max elevation 33 degrees high in the NE sky above Cassiopeia at 8:30 pm, and go into the shadow in the east. Note these are really at the same time - these locations are in different time zones, but the shuttle is visible over much of the country as it goes over tonight.

From the NHC’s 11 am discussion,

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME… RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 130 KT…BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS…AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

The advisory gives a central pressure of 925 mb, sustained winds at 150 mph. Landfall on the Yucatan is expected very early Tuesday morning, but conditions will be deteriorating today as the storm approaches. Hurricane warnings are in effect in Mexico and Belize from Cancun south to the Belize/Guatamala border, and also on the west coast of the Yucatan from south of Progresso to Ciudad del Carmen.

A brief update on the possibility of a Pacific tsunami …

From the NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center:

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1226Z 26 DEC 2006
COORDINATES - 21.8 NORTH 120.6 EAST
LOCATION - TAIWAN REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.2

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION… THE MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

Also, there’s information on the USGS Earthquake page about the event, including a map of the epicenter, and here’s an AP article.

The media may be overplaying this, especially because it’s the second anniversary of the great Indian Ocean tsunami. Today’s earthquake was magnitude 7.2, versus 9.1 two years ago, and that’s a big difference. But I’m not familiar with the seafloor in this region, and in any case caution is always a good idea when dealing with tsunami risk. The main areas that should be paying close attention are the Philippines and Taiwan.

UPDATE: CNN says that “An official with the Japanese Meteorological Agency says the danger of a destructive tsunami from today’s earthquake off Taiwan ‘has passed,’ The Associated Press reports.”

The space shuttle Discovery may actually fly this evening. The weather forecast had been unfavorable, due to a forecast for low clouds and gusty winds. But the area is reported to be clear enough for launch, the winds are staying below the limits, and the weather forecast is now 70% in favor of flight. Launch time is 8:47 pm EST. Up-to-the-minute information on the countdown is available from Spaceflight Now and Florida Today. Also, here’s an article from space.com about viewing the launch from the entire Eastern coastline - night shuttle launches can be seen from as far north as Maine, and as far inland as Pennsylvania.

The 8 am update from the National Hurricane Center shows no major changes — maximum sustained winds at 45 mph, central pressure 1007 mb, some strengthening expected today. Rain bands are expected to reach the Florida Keys and southeast Florida this afternoon, with the center making landfall this evening. 5-10 inches of rain is expected in Florida, with 15 inches possible in some places. Dr. Jeff Masters on the projected track:

The latest forecast models are all in excellent agreement, calling for a landfall in the Everglades tonight, a long passage up the spine of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, at the Kennedy Space Center, NASA has just made a final decision to move Atlantis to shelter, and the mobile launcher platform carrying Atlantis is about to start its 10-hour trip to the Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA rules say the shuttle should be moved if winds are expected to reach 79 mph. It seems unlikely to me that Ernesto will be that strong at Cape Canaveral, since it would have to intensify and maintain strength as it moves north across a large section of Florida. The NHC wind speed probabilities shows only a 5 percent chance of 64-knot winds (74-mph) at Cocoa Beach. But a NASA announcement says that “KSC can expect winds up to 70-mph by 8 pm on Wednesday,” and the possibility of rapid intensification may have tipped the scales (speculation on my part). Moving Atlantis to shelter means that the shuttle will almost certainly be delayed until late October, unless lighting requirements are relaxed for the next shuttle launch (NASA) or the next Soyuz landing (Russia).

UPDATE: TS Ernesto hasn’t turned into a monster, or (at least) a montor headed for Cape Canaveral, and in light of the improving weather forecast, NASA cancelled the rollback of Atlantis at 2:45 pm. This was almost halfway through the shuttle’s 10-hour trip from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building. Atlantis is now being hauled back towards the pad. So, if this was planned as a “shuttle rollback”, what do we call this? A “shuttle rollaround”, perhaps. In any case, there’s now a chance for a September shuttle launch.

Fortunately, it appears that Ernesto’s circulation has been largely disrupted by the storm’s passage over Cuba. This may spare Florida a hurricane, although it’s too early to tell. From the 5 pm NHC discussion:

THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED… WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. RECENTLY…HOWEVER…SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WE EXPECT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE’S PASSAGE OVER LAND…IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT…THE SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS…GFDL…AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

Dr. Jeff Masters says:

My best guess is for a very wet tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 mph hitting the Everglades.

The NHC’s wind speed probability table still shows a 45% chance of hurricane strength in 36 hours. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Atlantic coast south of Vero Beach, the Florida Gulf coast south of Chokoloskee, and the Florida Keys. In addition, a tropical storm watch is in effect on the Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to Englewood, and a hurricane watch is in effect on the Atlantic coast from Vero Beach to New Smyrna Beach. Florida residents should continue monitoring this storm closely.

The 11 am NHC discussion just came out, and discusses Ernesto’s track over Cuba:

ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA CAZONAL…JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO…AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA…WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER…RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST…AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.

There’s a strange quality to following Ernesto. The storm itself isn’t all that impressive right now. From the 8 am NHC advisory:

ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA …

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.

With this storm, what matters most is track projection, not current wind speed. The 5 am NHC discussion paints the track a little more definite:

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM…AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA…AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

The NHC forecast map projects Ernesto to make landfall near the southern tip of the Everglades, with a northward track over Lake Okechobee and then emerging over the Atlantic around Daytona Beach — still at hurricane strength. Of course, this is just a projection with all the usual caveats and qualifications … but it could make life interesting for Florida’s entire east coast, from Miami to Jacksonville.

The 5 am discussion notes the extreme uncertainty in the intensity forecast:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA…THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…JUST AS ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

Dr. Jeff Masters looks at the historical record of storms on similar tracks across Cuba, and feels that Ernesto won’t have much punch over Florida, and the main danger may be further up the coast — around the Carolinas:

So, history is against Ernesto becoming anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane upon landfall in South Florida, and I believe landfall as a tropical storm is more likely. If Ernesto does take a more westerly track up the west coast of Florida towards Sarasota, landfall as a Category 1 hurricane could occur …

While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto’s impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, at Cape Canaveral, NASA is preparing to move the space shuttle Atlantis from launch pad 39-B to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB), which would provide more protection from hurricance-force winds. Atlantis had been scheduled for launch on Sunday afternoon — until the launch pad took a titanic 100,000-amp lightning strike on Friday. NASA postponed Sunday’s launch to check the shuttle for damage — apparently it’s ok — but that gave Ernesto time to bear down on the space center. For awhile, NASA technicians were working simultaneously to prepare Atlantis for a Tuesday launch attempt — and an emergency rollback to the VAB (that had to be really confusing!). But NASA has now elected to focus on the rollback option. From Spaceflight Now’s mission status center:

NASA had been targeting the 4-mile rollback of Atlantis to begin around 2 p.m. on Tuesday. But given the weather outlook, Leinbach has told the teams to look at ways to do some work in parallel so that the timeline could be compressed. That would allow the shuttle to begin the 6-to-8-hour trip back to the Vehicle Assembly Building around 8 or 10 a.m. EDT.

Hurricane force winds are expected at Kennedy Space Center by late afternoon or early evening on Wednesday.

A rollback could have lots of interesting domino effects on the space program. After Atlantis returns to the launch pad, it would take about eight days to prepare the shuttle for launch. If Atlantis is not launched by September 7, the next Russian spacecraft returning to Earth would have to land at night, which they don’t want to have happen. And if Atlantis is not launched by September 13, there would be only three days in the rest of 2006 with the proper lighting conditions for this shuttle launch.

Ernesto may be a weak storm over Cuba on an uncertain track, but it’s already causing havoc in the space program. But this is evidence of the fact that distant storms have to be taken seriously, even if it causes inconvenience, because they can hit quickly and cause lots of damage if the proper preparations aren’t made. NASA knows this, and is acting responsibly.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane. Important sections of the NHC discussion:

LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. …

THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW…AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS. …

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. …

THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER…ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS…AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS.

And here is the NHC forecast 5-day tracking map.

The 11 am NHC advisory expands the tropical storm watch area, due to uncertainty in the track forecast.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE…INCLUDING CAPE COD…NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA’S VINEYARD.

AT 11 AM EDT … 1500 UTC … A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT…AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND PORT JEFFERSON.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

From the 11 am NHC discussion,

IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS