From www.myweatherblog.com

I apologize about the less frequent updates, I have been busy with family obligations. I want to clarify my earlier post as I did not want to imply that the surge will not be bad, but I wanted to stress that it will not be the surge of a category five but rather a category three. This is surely still a major hurricane and the surge will be significant. Read NHC info more further details. Note this section…

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS…WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES… AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

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Here is the latest discussion from the NHC: Read more

As Ed from WeatherBlog says, the track can change and everyone inside the cone/swath should be prepared for a direct landfall. Those who reside outside the cone should not let their guard down either, as impacts will be felt well away from the center! In addition, impacts will be felt well away from the coast.

posted by Matt @ MyWeatherBlog.com

Hurricane Rita remains a strong category five and will go in the record books as the third most intense hurricane according to pressure. There have been some important developments regarding the track. You can read more at www.myweatherblog.com.

UPDATE 4 AM:
Pressure has risen to 899 mb and the cloud tops on the satellite have warmed slightly. Hurricane Rita may have very well peaked and could weaken some this morning.
UPDATE 5 AM:
The lastest VORTEX shows the pressure at 897 mb! Read 5 AM NHC info.

UPDATE 7AM: Pressure up to 907…winds down to 170 mph.

From myweatherblog.com:

Down to 904mb! 5th lowest pressure ever in a hurricane!!

Update: now down to 898 mb…making this the 3rd most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin.

Posted at www.myweatherblog.com:

The models are coming into very good agreement on the track of Rita. Residents need to take action now along the Texas coast!

Read more.

From www.myweatherblog.com

Rita continues to gain strength this morning as it heads toward the central Gulf of Mexico. The good news, if there is any, is that once the storm peaks it hopefully will then weaken. Once a storm reaches Category Five status, it rarely remains there for more than 12-24 hours.

From StormTrack

Hurricane Rita is continuing her explosive growth and could easilly reach Category 5. Rita just moved out of range of the Key West radar and technical problem had grounded the hurricane hunters this morning, so NHC is flying blind. NHC hopes to have a plane in the area later today The 10:00am CDT advisory listed Rita at 944 mb with 140 mph winds, but satellite estimates continue to show a stronger storm. The latest Dvorak satellite estimate from the University of Wisconsin suggests a Category 5 hurricane of 920.1 mb with winds of 140.0 kts (161.1 mph)! While this estimate is likely high, it could be a sign of things to come. -Read More.-

From my blog at www.myweatherblog.com…

This is a look at the GFS model 60-hour precipatation ending very early Sunday morning and notice the rain forecast over Southeast Louisiana. Several inches of rain in that region could be a nightmare scenario. It is also important to note that this model indicates a landfall along the Texas coast. While we are so focused on where the center or eye may go, we need to also keep in mind that this could be a large hurricane with wide impacts. In addition, the track indicated by our models will most likely shift several times with many runs to go before a potential landfall.

posted by Matt Newman: www.myweatherblog.com

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Then there’s the possibility Louisiana could be dealt more than just a rain-soaked glancing blow. As The Storm Track points out:

[Looking at the last several computer model runs, there has been a] progressive northward shift towards northeastern Texas, almost to the Louisiana border[.] Model trends like this can be very hinting and often continue into the future. We saw the same thing when Hurricane Katrina was forecast to strike the central Florida panhandle, but the models kept shifting west until they locked onto Louisiana. … New Orleans to Brownsville remains threatened here, but I am starting to look more towards the northern part of that area.

Speaking on the phone with a fellow weatherblogger earlier, I heard — and this is like a third- or fourth-hand report, so take it with a major grain of salt — that the word on the street among weather nerds is that, at the National Hurricane Center, “the unofficial consensus there is that it’s going toward New Orleans” — i.e., that the rightward shift in the computer models will probably continue — but they’re not going to come out and say that yet because the models don’t support it at this point. It’s more of a hunch. I only repeat it because it intrinsically makes sense to me — I have long felt that watching the trend in the computer model tracks can be just as valuable as watching the model tracks themselves, if not moreso.

That said, what should be emphasized is that we really don’t know yet where this storm is headed, but everyone from Brownsville to, yes, New Orleans — and even, gulp, the Mississippi coast — should be watching it very closely and making preparations now for a possible hit.

P.S. Discussion question: Which is “better” — a direct hit by major hurricane Rita on an area that didn’t suffer Katrina’s wrath, or another direct hit on Katrina-devastated areas, where there is “less to lose” because pretty much everything is already destroyed, and most of the people are gone?

From the NHC:

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA…SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM…1500Z ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

-posted by Matt Newman: www.myweatherblog.com

Tropical Storm Rita is slowly becoming better organized this morning and is racing through the Florida Straits. It will most likely be upgraded once the plane reaches Rita shortly. The impacts will be felt today across the Keys as the system passes close to Key West this afternoon. Conditions will become more favorable for further strengthening once the system enters the Gulf of Mexico.

posted by: Matt Newman, www.myweatherblog.com