Hurricane Rita has continued to strengthen all day today. The latest advisory lists Rita at 965 mb with 110 mph sustained winds. Rita has just passed the Dry Tortugas, FL and is now into the Gulf of Mexico. She has really shored up her eye and has a serious eyewall in place.

The 11:00pm advisory may already be outdated as the latest Dvorak technique satellite pass from the Univ. of Wisconsin is estimating a central pressure of 956.9 mb and a wind speed of 104.6 knots (120.4 mph).

Check out the radar shot from Key West. It shows a very strong eye wall and hurriane with excellent feeder bands. The hurricane can also be tracked using the radar in Casablanca, Cuba:

Recon reported the eye to be 30 nautical miles wide, which is very large for a hurricane. As the eyewall shrinks, look for winds to really pick up as an eyewall replacement cycle kicks off.

I don’t see anything out there to slow down Hurricane Rita. As we discussed earlier, the water in the Gulf is perfectly capable of supporting a Category 5 hurricane. There is a very high-energy stretch of water leading all the way to the Galveston area. Below is a map of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) which is basically a measure of the amount of fuel available to a hurricane.

This is an abbreviated entry. For further explanation and to see more coverage like this, check StormTrack - Posted by Bryan Woods.

Hurricane Rita is finally moving past Florida and taking aim at the western Gulf Coast. The 8:00 pm EDT advisory listed Rita a little stronger at 969 mb with sustained winds of 105 mph. Since then recon has reported a central pressure of 967 mb.

Visible satellite shots show that the outflow from Rita has increased drastically and looks extremely healthy. Just check out that outflow to the west side. Absolutely beautiful.

Evacuation orders have begun in Texas. As listed from NWS in Houston / Galveston,

EVACUATION INFORMATION…
FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES…VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON GALVESTON ISLAND… BUSSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER
MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA’S TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS…A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY… HARRIS COUNTY… AND THE CITIES OF HOUSTON…SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN

For those of you unsure of whether you need to evacuate, I assembled some information from the Texas Department of Safety, Division of Emergency Management. In the case that evacuation orders are issued in your area, below are maps of the evacuation zones based on the anticipated strength of the hurricane.

• Sabine (Counties include Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton, and Orange)
• Galveston (Counties include Brazoria, Galveston, and Harris)
• Matagorda (Counties include Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, and Victoria)
• Coastal Bend (Counties include Aransas, Kenedy, Kleberg, Nueces, Refugio, and San Patricio)
• Valley (Counties include Cameron and Willacy)

This is an abbreviated entry. For further explanation and to see more coverage like this (including Cuban radar!), check StormTrack - Posted by Bryan Woods

The latest recon shows that Hurricane Rita has continued to strengthen. The central pressure is now down to 973 mb and winds are maintained at 100 mph. I suspect that this intensity estimate is just about right. Actually, I suspect that Rita was already this strong this morning when a satellite pass indicated this intensity but NHC went with a recon report showing only 80 mph winds.

Hurricane Rita has just moved passed Key West and conditions should begin to improve there. Luckily they missed the brunt of the eyewall.

The models continue to shift all over the place but continue to indicate a landing somewhere in Texas, maybe near Corpus Christi. However, I am by no means ready to put my neck on the line with this one. Please remember that this is the 18z model run which often is worth much less than the prior run from 12z.

I still think we could see a substantial shift in forecast once Rita enters the Gulf. Just keep in mind what happened to Katrina and Charley once they hit the Gulf of Mexico. However, the models have remained consistent in their inconsistencies. This makes Texas look like an increasingly likely target for a major hurricane strike.

Strengthening still remains likely at Rita solidifies her eyewall. Once a sturdy eyewall is in place, intensity fluctuations are likely, due to eyewall replacement cycles.

This is an abbreviated entry. For further explanation and to see more coverage like this, check StormTrack - Posted by Bryan Woods

In a special statement, NHC finally upgraded Rita to a hurricane. The current NHC advisory lists Rita at 982 mb with sustained winds of 85 mph. Satellite Dvorak measurements from the Univ. of Wisconsin currently estimate Hurricane Rita at 969.5 mb and 90.0 kts (103.6 mph). This is obviously indicating a much stronger hurricane than recon is reporting and is likely due to Rita’s difficulty forming a core up until now. This could set the stage for explosive growth as Key West radar clearly shows that Rita has finally developed an eye.

For more information regarding an updated track and intensity forecast, check with Bryan Woods of The Storm Track.