The presumptive GOP nominee tells voters in an afternoon Pickersville,
Pennsylvania town hall that the state will pick the winner in November
 and he will be behind until right before the polls close.
McCain’s point seems to be simply that he’s the underdog, which is undoubtedly true. But, if the election is close, it’s quite possible that he’ll be literally right; indeed, he might seem to be behind even after some polls close… until the combined impact of the Bradley-Wilder Effect and the Exit-Poll Liberal Selection Bias Effect (see: the Seven-Hour Presidency of John Kerry) is revealed, when actual vote totals — as opposed to final opinion polls and leaked exit polls — reveal a narrow McCain victory.
I’m not predicting it. I’m just saying it’s a possibility.
Or maybe he’s counting on the GOP’s buddy Osama Bin Laden to produce a last minute video and save their hides as he did in 2004 with Bush and Kerry.
I remain unconvinced of any sort of “Bradley” effect, as it didn’t really show up much in either the primary (where often times Obama outperformed the polls) or in Ford’s race against Corker.
With so many polling firms operating in so many different ways, especially the polling companies like Survey USA which don’t have live operators, I think the chances of a massive polling difference from the actual results will be remote.
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June 30th, 2008 at 5:53:27 pm
Or maybe he’s counting on the GOP’s buddy Osama Bin Laden to produce a last minute video and save their hides as he did in 2004 with Bush and Kerry.
I remain unconvinced of any sort of “Bradley” effect, as it didn’t really show up much in either the primary (where often times Obama outperformed the polls) or in Ford’s race against Corker.
With so many polling firms operating in so many different ways, especially the polling companies like Survey USA which don’t have live operators, I think the chances of a massive polling difference from the actual results will be remote.