Huffington Post says it's Hillary by 5 in IN, Obama by 12 in NC. I predict the actual numbers will be roughly opposite that. She'll win by double digits, he won't, and she'll benefit from another fake "comeback."
By the way, one of the northern counties, right next to South Bend is Laporte County, and they are notoriously slow every election on tallying up the votes. That’s, I would think, Obama country, although less populous than its neighboring counties.
St. Joe County is in and Obama won by 3,000. I don’t think that bodes very well for his overall performance, but Hillary did spend a lot of time in South Bend, as did he. Meanwhile the corridor to Chicago is initially looking much better for Hillary than expected, although it’s too early to tell. There are also a lot of obama votes around Indianapolis left to be counted.
Obama is going to have to dominate the Chicago corridor if he’s to have any chance of pulling this one out, especially in Lake County. The Indianapolis vote can only potentially get him within about 4 percent. And even if Obama dominates the Chicago corridor, nothing’s for certain. I think he looses this one be a little less than five points, but things could change.
This is going in Hillary’s favor late. Obama was banking on getting the vote out big in the Chicago corridor, with his Illinois connection, but Hillary’s held strong in South Bend, and is currently leading around Gary in Porter county by 18 points! Only 25 percent is in there, though.
Ok. So Marion county just moved to 84 percent reporting and that closed the Clinton lead to 4 points. By the time Marion county and its neighbor Hamilton County finish, Obama will be within 3 or less. But he can’t close the deal unless the Chicago corridor, especially Lake County come in huge. Given that neighboring Porter County is going his Clinton, I’m skeptical. Still, it’s possible.
Mad Max, if things finish as you say, that just means Indiana and North Carolina went exactly according to every pundit’s expectations. HRC was either “done” before today, or she wasn’t. In either case, today’s results (if HRC holds onto Indiana) don’t change a thing.
She is done from the standpoint that her argument against Obama - and her kitchen sink strategy - failed. I would have to think that many Super Delegates who were on the fence will now be willing to cast their support for Obama and begin wrapping this up.