Just landed in Nashville. It looks like the exit polls were right, for once: a close contest in IN, an Obama landslide in NC. Nice! … Incidentally, my contrary predictive post below appeared about an hour after I sent it. Odd.
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Categories: Election 2008, Mobile Blog (Moblog)
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May 6th, 2008 at 9:41:59 pm
I’ve been posting on the other thread. I don’t think Obama will pull out Indiana, but after Marion county and its neighbors finish up, he’ll be within 3%. I don’t think he can make up 30,000 votes in Lake County, though. I think he loses this one by about 2-3 percent.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:43:44 pm
For f*ck’s sake Laporte County! Every election we have to wait for you! WHY!?!
May 6th, 2008 at 9:47:40 pm
This is from the Washington Post on Lake County, which has yet to report, but which I don’t think can give Obama 30,000 vote that he’ll need to win. I’d be happy to be surprised, though:
Lake County, in the far northwestern reaches of Indiana, will be crucial territory in understanding where the race is headed in the Hoosier State. Lake, which includes the city of Gary, should be strong for Obama as there is a considerable black population, and the area is covered by a portion of the Chicago media market — meaning voters there have long been accustomed to the Illinois Senator. If Clinton can keep it somewhat close in Lake County — and its 1st Congressional District more broadly — it bodes very well for her chances statewide.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:49:32 pm
Strangely, Lake’s neighbor, Porter County, is going strong for Clinton. This could be the case in Laporte County too. If this Clinton-drift carries into Lake County, it’s all over for Obama.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:52:23 pm
Hillary is done. I would hope that some major Super Delegates will begin bolting to Obama now.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:00:55 pm
I don’t see any way Obama pulls this out. Can he really pick up 35000 votes in Lake County. He picked up 60000 in Marion County, but only 3000 in South Bend. My guess is that it’ll be closer to the South Bend tally, since there are far fewer voters there than in Marion County.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:38:47 pm
Mad Max, I think you’re correct about the supers. Plus, HRC is going to have a hard time raising cash after tonight - time to loan her campaign some more cash.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:48:24 pm
From Hillary, “No matter who wins the nomination, I will support them.”
Sounds to me like she is setting up her exit.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:57:00 pm
I think so too. The Math!
May 6th, 2008 at 11:07:03 pm
russert is saying that obama will have to pay clinton’s debt in order for her to drop out. i havn’t heard this before and this is highly shady. a large portion of this debt is apparantly clinton’s and penn’s. so essentially obama would have to give a large portion of money from his donors directly to clinton and penn. i hope this doesn’t happen and hate the sound of it.
im going to bed. hopefully obama pulls off an indiana miracle. my odds….
80% clinton wins indiana
15% indiana still not decide in the morning
5% obama wins indiana
May 7th, 2008 at 12:33:55 am
Yeah, it’s certainly mathematically possible that he wins. They don’t have a lot of numbers yet out of lake county.
If Lake county holds its margin at clost to 3-1 (unlikely), I say he wins. If not, he’ll probably lose.
But what the hell is up with Union? They have like 8k people in the whole county, and they have zero results in?
May 7th, 2008 at 1:13:45 am
Is anyone still watching cnn right now?? I am not kidding about this but Blitzer just asked the poor mayor of Gary (supposedly an Obama guy) the same question, word for word, like 4 times. Over and over again. Look, the mayor isn’t going to change his answer. Blitzer, stop asking him the same frickin thing!
Now some mayor of Hammond (admitted Clinton supporter) said there is “hanky panky” that happens all across the state of Indiana and whatever is taking so long in Gary “looks improper.” Are you kidding me? I hate this Hammond mayor more than Blizter.
Now the two mayors are going at it. Great.
I should not be watching cnn this late at night. Everyone’s punchy–including me.
p.s. Hammond mayor just said “I’m proud of her” regarding Clinton’s win.
p.p.s. Hillary Clinton will win, will win Indiana. Hat tip?