Barely 24 hours removed from pursuing a perfect bracket, Mark Gardner is suddenly out of the running in the Irish Trojan NIT Pool — and defending champion Gary Kirby is back in the catbird seat.

Kirby, a.k.a. "gahrie," is tied with Josh Krause for first place, and is statistically the most likely to win the pool, prevailing in 14 of the 32 remaining scenarios. He is also the only contestant guaranteed to still be mathematically alive after tonight’s final two quarterfinals. For now, however, eight contestants are  alive to win: Kirby, Krause, Dan Port, Brian Dupuis (DUP), Pat Caplin, Jeff Burch, Chris Bravo and Joey Perucki.

Gardner, who was perfect until the tournament’s 22nd game and entered last night’s action with a 23-1 prediction record, was mathematically eliminated by a pair of quarterfinal upsets: wins by #2 seeds UMass and Florida over homestanding top seeds Syracuse and Arizona State, respectively. The Syracuse loss especially hurt, as the Orange were Gardner’s predicted runner-up. He can now finish no better than third place.

Kirby, for his part, appears to have an uncommon gift for predicting the NIT. In addition to winning the 2007 pool, he finished second in 2006. (He did not compete in 2005.) This year, he has gotten only two games wrong to date.

Kirby and Krause have 198 points out of a possible 222, which puts
them 15 points ahead of the three contestants tied for third place: Port, Patrick Roach and Derek McDonald. Of that trio, only Port is
still alive to win.

Gardner is sixth with 182 points. Dupuis, in seventh place
with 176 points, is still alive to win, as are Caplin and
Burch (tied for ninth with 173 points), Bravo (eleventh with 168),
and Perucki (eighteenth with 231).

If Virginia Tech and Ohio State win tonight, all
currently mathematically-alive contestants will remain so, except Dan Port, who
would be eliminated. If Virginia Tech and Dayton win, Port would remain
alive but Burch, Perucki and Dupuis would be eliminated.

If Ole Miss and Ohio State win, only Kirby and Dupuis will remain
standing; all the others would be eliminated. If Ole Miss and Dayton
win, Bravo would join Kirby and Dupuis in the "still alive" category.

Complete standings here and below.

4th annual NIT pool
1. Gary Kirby - 198
1. Joshua Krause - 198
3. Dan Port - 183
3. Patrick Roach - 183
3. Derek McDonald - 183
6. Mark Gardner - 182
7. Brian Dupuis - 176
8. Ginny Zak - 175
–. *AGGREGATE PICKS BRACKET* - 175
9. Pat Caplin - 173
9. Jeff Burch - 173
11. Chris Bravo - 168
12. Ted Zak - 166
13. Diane Krause - 162
–. *ALL FAVORITES BRACKET* - 161
14. Katrina Lewonczyk - 160
15. Larry Caplin - 159
16. Matt Thomsen - 158
16. Mike Quinn - 158
18. David Mathues - 156
18. Don LaPlante - 156
18. Joey Perucki - 156
21. Randy Styles - 155
22. Weston Cross - 152
23. Gerry deSimas - 151
23. Joe Hiegel - 151
25. Jay Johnson - 150
26. Andrew Long - 149
27. Sean Sullivan - 148
27. Matt Wiser - 148
27. Scott Schmidt - 148
27. Cam McLachlan - 148
31. Danny Pilz - 145
32. Brian Nicholson - 144
33. Jeff Morrison - 141
33. Matt Scarborough - 141
33. Josh Rubin - 141
36. Steve Ivey - 139
37. Wilson Loftis - 137
38. Kevin Hauschulz - 134
38. Jennifer Elam - 134
38. Becky Loy - 134
38. Rick Boeckler - 134
42. Michael Rosenkrantz - 132
42. Scott Robertson - 132
44. Dave Whelan - 131
44. Greg Plank - 131
46. David Kreutz - 128
47. Scott Paine - 127
47. Mike Dagen - 127
49. Chuck Wessell - 124
49. Kevin Curran - 124
51. Sandy Berman - 122
51. Kay Torg - 122
51. Brandon Minich - 122
54. Ian Auzenne - 117
54. Joshua Carpenter - 117
56. Matt Higgins - 114
56. Jeremy Gist - 114
58. Tom K. - 111
59. M.T. Swanson - 108
60. Brian Newbold - 91