More O-mentum!

Following on the heels of that tied Connecticut poll, a new Massachusetts poll — conducted on the night Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama — shows Hillary’s lead at just 6% — down from 37% a week earlier (in a poll by a different polling firm, but still).

Also, Hillary is only up by 12% in her home (er, “home”) state of New York. Obama could pick up a pretty big chunk of delegates in the Empire State.

UPDATE: Obama’s within 3% in California!

This is sounding more and more like a trend. But Obama needs something to put him over the top. Like, say, a strong performance in tonight’s debate, followed by a John Edwards endorsement tomorrow morning.

16 Responses to “More O-mentum!”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Here’s a random question – whatever happened to Howard Dean????

  2. Joe Loy says:

    “…especially if he can win some of the heavily African-American congressional districts in New York City.”

    Especially if he CAN win? Can win SOME of them??? / Other than purely Theoretically, he Can’t Lose ANY of them. (Charlie Rangel to the Contrary Notwithstanding. :) Watch & Learn.

    Of course he will win a goodly Chunk of NY delegates ~ including in Non-Afro-Am CDs, and from the statewide At-large contingent too. / Hillary will also win a Share of the delegates in her Home state of Illinois. / Which in both cases is as it Should be.

    (However, be on the Lookout for a 90th-percentile-level Clinton Sweep of certain Brooklyn Chasidic precincts :>, whose Feb. 5 Democratic returns will be as Amusing as Utah’s Republican ones. Yes, there Are places in Secular America where Ecclesiastical Authority still lives. :)

  3. Brendan Loy says:

    You’re right, of course. But hey, go easy on my inexact wording, I wrote this post while trying to simultaneously soothe a wailing 4-week-old. :)

  4. Brendan Loy says:

    UPDATE: I’ve removed the language in question, since you’re quite right about it. For posterity’s sake, let the record show that the last sentence of this post originally read, “Obama could pick up a pretty big chunk of delegates in the Empire State, especially if he can win some of the heavily African-American congressional districts in New York City.”

  5. Joe Loy says:

    PS: now that you made me Think it :), it occurs to me that Barack may carry New York City overall ~ powered by strong pluralities in New York County (Manhattan) and Kings County (Brooklyn). / Hillary will win the counties of Queens (probably) and Richmond (definitely ~ the latter being a.k.a., Staten Island) and, albeit with a Different ethnic base, Da Bronx. Amongst the Suburbs she’ll also take Nassau (probably) & Suffolk (definitely) Counties on Long Island and Rockland & Putnam on the mainland; but I’d give old Westchester County to Obama. / Upstate it’ll be (almost) All Hillary.

  6. Joe Loy says:

    Sorry I Went Hard on the Wording. / I’m still in Barackennedy Shock, here, so I’m even Crankier than usual. :> / Give ould Papa Loy’s love to the 4-week-old Wailer, there :). [Sing her “The Castle of Dromore” for me wouldyez. :]

  7. Joe Loy says:

    PPS ~ on a Tangentially related note, IMO Pastor Hucker won tonight’s debate Going Away. (Which he May Do soon but nevermind about that at the Moment. :) He’s a very Smart and Nimble little fellow, praise the Lord :>.

    Substantively, yer man McCain sucked. / He DOES remind me of his hero Ronald Reagan, by golly: he’s Old, and he gets all Balled up in his attempted diction & sentence structure. If you read a Transcript of him it would be laced with Gibberish. He Worries me. / But, it didn’t Matter. He’s on a Roll and he got Florida & he got Rudy & tomorrow he gets Aahnold & perhaps next Tuesday, the Nommynation.

    Romney was vastly Superior intellectually, and as always writhingly Serpentine personally. / The reason Willard Mitt will not be President is that he’s Good enough, he’s Smart enough, and doggone It, people Hate him. ;>

    Finally, as usual Ron Paul was ~ Ron Paul.

  8. Andrew says:

    …he’s Good enough, he’s Smart enough, and doggone It, people Hate him.

    Wait a minute, how did this conversation become about me?!?

  9. Angrier and Angrier says:

    Now that Edwards is out, it is hard to tell what will happen to those voters who supported him. I think Super Tuesday will be a real wild card. I hear analysts say Edwards’ supporters will go to Hillary, but I kind of doubt that. We’ll see.

  10. yea says:

    these polls are huge news. these races wernt even competitive and we are talking 20+ point swings. an edwards endorsement of obama before super tuesday might turn this into a close to a tossup.

  11. Brendan Loy says:

    Angrier, did you miss the, like, 28 posts yesterday about that very question? :P Okay, maybe it was just one post, but it had like 28 updates…

  12. Derek says:

    If anything, this suggests that Rasmussen is screening LVs very different than from SUSA, the LA Times, Gallup, and the Courant… because all of them have had polls with far greater margins for Clinton in the last week or so.

    It’s possible to chalk it up to momentum in Obama’s direction… but those numbers from Rasmussen are so quickly and so dramatically different from everyone else that I’m reluctant to jump there (though, again, it’s possible). We’ll see what the next round of polls say.

  13. Derek says:

    Some more proof of Rasmussen’s outlying….

    Poll released today (1/20-1/26, as opposed to Rasmussen’s 1/28) shows Clinton 43, Obama 15 (+28) [31% undecided]. I don’t think it’s that high, but it’s showing Rasmussen as the only poll in the last four showing Clinton leading by only single-digits. (Most humorous line from the poll, which only gave Dem results: “The number of respondents who identified themselves as registered Republicans was too small to yield a statistically significant result.”]

    In other news…

    Obama leads GA 52-36 (blacks [43%] Obama 73-20, whites [49%] Clinton 51-33)

    Clinton leads TN 59-26 (blacks [23%] Clinton 46-43, whites [69%] Clinton 64-19).

  14. JT says:

    Just got out of the hospital. I drank a shot last night every time someone mentioned Ronald Reagan at the debate last night. I blacked out during the first question.

  15. Angrier and Angrier says:


    Thank God you didn’t also do it every time they did a cutaway to Ahnold in the audience. You might not be on this Earth anymore if you had.