I don’t know how much TV coverage of the Iowa caucuses I’ll have time to watch tonight, never mind how much I’ll be able to blog about them. Maybe quite a bit, maybe very little; it really depends on Loyette’s and Becky’s schedules, which are nigh impossible to predict in advance. Anyway, just in case I don’t end up blogging much at all, I figured I’d post an Iowa thread now, so y’all can comment on any news that may break.
In the mean time, what are your predictions? My money’s on Obama winning a squeaky-close three-way race that really decides nothing, and Huckabee edging Romney with McCain third. But I haven’t been following events closely for the last few days (obviously), so take those predictions with several large grains of salt.
Speaking of salt grains, give any pre-caucus “entrance polls” the grain-of-salt treatment as well. The arcane caucus rules, particularly on the Democratic side, mean that it’s a very chancy proposition trying to predict the outcome of such close, multi-candidate races based on polls, even polls taken mere minutes before the voting. We really just have to wait and see what the actual votes say.
This morning I was Edwards, Clinton, Obama. Given some recent rampant rumors regarding Richardson and Biden, I’m slightly more inclined to go Edwards, Obama, Clinton.
I would put Romney ahead, very slightly, at this point. Paul will finish 4th.
Real predictions include percentages. (And also disclaimers :) — I have been paying far too little attention to be particularly confident in this prediction, so I don’t put much stock in it.)
Hmm, I guess you’re right, Gardner. Sorry, Mrs. Edwards!! LOL. I removed the comment. For posterity’s sake, it said:
P.S. Today’s winner (or rather, loser) of the Matt Drudge Ridiculous Photo Derby is John Edwards, who is shown at the top of the Drudge Report appearing to kiss a man. Sheesh. I guess Drudge really doesn’t want Johnny Boy to win.
This isn’t related to the caucus, but to your sleep patterns with the new baby. You made an interesting comment about how you wife’s and the baby’s schedules done mesh. They should. When the baby is asleep so should your wife. That is the beauty of one child.
If you are tired that is your problem. Ha ha. New dads.
I just got back from being in Iowa for the Holidays…
You can’t imagine how annoying it must be to live in Iowa during the caucus. One day my girlfriends parents house received over 40 political phone calls, 6 people canvassing for different candidates, the TV was pumping out the commercials, and the radio stations are ALL political. It was unreal.
I did get to see Obama speak. I also saw Edwards at the Hamburg Inn and Romney walking around downtown Iowa City.
Mark, I’m not sure if by “done” you meant “don’t.” If so, you misinterpreted what I wrote. Becky’s and Loyette’s schedules definitely do mesh (and they’re heavily related to my schedule as well). All I was saying was that their schedules, no matter how related to each other, are impossible to predict with any accuracy more than a couple of hours in advance.
Well I hope you guys are right on your predictions. I’d love to see Clinton come in 3rd (or lower) and Ron Paul have a great showing. I still haven’t forgiven the Iowaoanians since they torpedoed Howard Dean’s presidential bid last election.
Well, the first part is academic, but a Romney victory would have ended Huck. Not the case now, but that was my theory. Then we’re at High Noon all at once: Mitt v McCain in NH.
Edwards has basically lived in Iowa for the past year. This is the political equivalent of all-in. He falters here, and suddenly we’re looking–not right away, but soon–at Obama v. Clinton, with Edwards’ supporters and money going to Obama. As I say, my theory.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:43:09 am
This morning I was Edwards, Clinton, Obama. Given some recent rampant rumors regarding Richardson and Biden, I’m slightly more inclined to go Edwards, Obama, Clinton.
I would put Romney ahead, very slightly, at this point. Paul will finish 4th.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:56:38 am
I would like to see Obama win. I don’t think he will, though.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:56:49 am
That’s not a man. It think that is Edwards wife. I saw her speaking a few days ago and she did not look well.
Obama, Edwards, Clinton
Paul, Paul, Romney
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:56:51 am
Real predictions include percentages. (And also disclaimers :) — I have been paying far too little attention to be particularly confident in this prediction, so I don’t put much stock in it.)
Dems:
Edwards 31%
Obama 29%
Clinton 28%
Richardson 9%
Biden 7%
Dodd 4%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 1%
GOP:
Huckabee 27%
Romney 26%
McCain 20%
Thompson 12%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Tancredo 1%
Hunter 0%
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:59:54 am
Hmm, I guess you’re right, Gardner. Sorry, Mrs. Edwards!! LOL. I removed the comment. For posterity’s sake, it said:
My bad!
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:03:02 pm
no need to wait up for results. i have them right here
dems
obama 34%
edwards 26%
clinton 25%
reps
romney 29%
huckabee 24%
mcain 14%
paul 13%
rudy 10%
thompson 10%
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:42:06 pm
I don’t have a prediction, so I offer this from Hitch . (there’s even bonus Huckabee bashing, which i know we all enjoy ;))
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:55:25 pm
Edwards will win big because a huge amount of democrats that support unviable candidates like Edwards second best.
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:59:56 pm
No matter what the result, here is a useful post-caucus spin guide.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:11:40 pm
Brendan,
This isn’t related to the caucus, but to your sleep patterns with the new baby. You made an interesting comment about how you wife’s and the baby’s schedules done mesh. They should. When the baby is asleep so should your wife. That is the beauty of one child.
If you are tired that is your problem. Ha ha. New dads.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:17:06 pm
I just got back from being in Iowa for the Holidays…
You can’t imagine how annoying it must be to live in Iowa during the caucus. One day my girlfriends parents house received over 40 political phone calls, 6 people canvassing for different candidates, the TV was pumping out the commercials, and the radio stations are ALL political. It was unreal.
I did get to see Obama speak. I also saw Edwards at the Hamburg Inn and Romney walking around downtown Iowa City.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:38:45 pm
Mark, I’m not sure if by “done” you meant “don’t.” If so, you misinterpreted what I wrote. Becky’s and Loyette’s schedules definitely do mesh (and they’re heavily related to my schedule as well). All I was saying was that their schedules, no matter how related to each other, are impossible to predict with any accuracy more than a couple of hours in advance.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:54:53 pm
I think Obama might take it. It could be close between him and Johnny boy though.
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:07:44 pm
Ron Paul: For President Of . . . Azeroth!
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:13:43 pm
I’m totally pulling for a Ron Paul-Mike Gravel unity ticket. Crazy on both sides, all the way!
Probably won’t happen, though.
:-P
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:28:47 pm
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton.
1. Romney
2. “that retarded creationist guy”*
3. Paul
*or at least that’s what my brother calls him.
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:30:09 pm
Actually, my brother tells me it was “borderline retarded.”
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:47:15 pm
“that retarded creationist guy”
You mean Ron Paul?
Okay, he doesn’t necessarily believe in creationism, but to many, not believing in evolution is pretty much the same thing ;-)
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:13:20 pm
Well I hope you guys are right on your predictions. I’d love to see Clinton come in 3rd (or lower) and Ron Paul have a great showing. I still haven’t forgiven the Iowaoanians since they torpedoed Howard Dean’s presidential bid last election.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:13:58 pm
The WoW story is hilarious, man am i glad I don’t play that game anymore, what a time sink it was…
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:47:14 pm
-A Huck victoy means about as much as Tom Harkin’s 95% Iowa caucus victory in 1992.
-An Edwards victory means slightly more than a Huck victory.
-A Romney or Obama victory is big.
-Hillary in third is BAD NEWS.
-McCain, conversely, can run third (or even a close fourth) and still be all right. But New Hampshire is his firewall.
-Christ, is Rudy even still in this thing?
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:51:26 pm
“A Romney or Obama victory is big.”
why do you say that?
January 3rd, 2008 at 9:26:46 pm
Well, the first part is academic, but a Romney victory would have ended Huck. Not the case now, but that was my theory. Then we’re at High Noon all at once: Mitt v McCain in NH.
Edwards has basically lived in Iowa for the past year. This is the political equivalent of all-in. He falters here, and suddenly we’re looking–not right away, but soon–at Obama v. Clinton, with Edwards’ supporters and money going to Obama. As I say, my theory.
January 3rd, 2008 at 9:32:51 pm
CNN projects Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucuses
January 3rd, 2008 at 9:34:07 pm
I did not see an Obama victory in Iowa I was thinking 2nd with Clinton pulling up the rear