I heard a commentator on CNN the other night arguing that Rudy Giuliani, if he wants to become a factor in this race, needs to appeal to the GOP’s conservative base. Not hardcore evangelicals and others who care only (or primarily) about social issues (and hence support Huckabee), but rather National Review conservatives, Rush Limbaugh conservatives, etc. — conservatives who oppose abortion rights, gay rights, the coarsening of the culture, and so forth, but who also care just as much about limited government, low taxes, the war on terror, etc.
That caveat notwithstanding, we are talking about social conservatives here (just not single-issue-voter social conservatives). And the concept of Giuliani appealing to social conservatives seems ridiculous at first — everybody knows Rudy is the cross-dressing, gay-loving, baby-killing former mayor of godless Gotham, right? — but I actually think it’s right. (Which, given my track record this election season, undoubtedly means it’s wrong.)
Consider: with Thompson out, and McCain and Huckabee regarded as apostates by much of the base, it appears that conservatives now have but one choice: Mitt Romney. Which is fine — he is, after all, the National Review’s choice — except that Romney strikes a lot of people as a slimy, serpentine, too-handsome-by-half, pandering flip-flopper who could give John Edwards a run for his money as the smarmiest candidate in the race. I don’t think I’m just projecting here; I think that impression is definitely out there. And it’s a problem.
Perhaps an even bigger problem is the electability issue. Romney is something of a cardboard Republican, and a poor one to boot. Not financially, of course; I mean he’s "poor" in the sense of not having a whole lot to offer in a general-election campaign where Republicans start at a huge disadvantage anyway because of the economy and Bush’s misadventures. This, I think, is a big reason why some conservatives are willing to consider holding their noses and voting for McCain: yeah, he kinda sucks at the whole conservatism thing, but at least he’s electable.
Which brings us back to Giuliani, a.k.a. "Mr. 4 Percent." Once upon a time, when Rudy was the ostensible national front-runner, electability was a big part of his appeal. Surely "America’s Mayor" could go toe-to-toe with any Democrat, even in a political environment that favors the Dems, and at least have a fighting chance. The big question with Rudy was always nominatability — sure, he could win in November, but can he get the nomination? The provisional answer appears to be no, although in fairness, he’s pretty much taken the first three weeks of the campaign off. (And people call Thompson lazy!)
Anyway… I’m not a doctrinaire conservative by any means; I agree with the right on some issues, the left on others, and neither on many others. If I were a doctrinaire conservative, though, I think I might be open to an argument from Giuliani that goes something like this:
Obviously, Giuliani couldn’t say it like that. He’d have to be
much more subtle. But I think this argument, properly made, could be a
compelling one.
Now, how Rudy can make it, while still holding onto his
presumed support among liberal Republicans in places like Florida,
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California, I’m not sure. But I
think he needs to try.
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Categories: Election 2008
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January 23rd, 2008 at 12:01:55 pm
This is not intended to be a direct response or refutation to the post — but here are a couple comments I found on a blog RCP linked to that might form the nucleus of a preemptive strike (or counterargument) from McCain:
“I am truly tired of all the attacks on Republicans BY Republicans. Support any candidate you would like but tell me why I should support your guy - not why you dislike mine. McCain is and has always been a conservative - look at his life ACU rating, his support for tax cuts WITH spending cuts (what GOPers want to argue that spending didn’t cost of the Congress?), his support for unborn life, and issue after issue. Sure he has not walked in lockstep, but I believe that he always acts in the interest of what he believes is best for America, not what is best for the GOP or John McCain. His integrity and his willingness to do what is right NO MATTER THE COST, as evidenced by his voluntarrily staying in the Hanio Hilton or his support for an unpopular war, is enough for me to excuse his small indiscretions. I will always support a man who is honorable, has integrity and WHO CAN WIN. ”
“John McCain is conservative on the issues that matter most to grassroots conservatives. He has a lifetime rating of 83 from the American Conservative Union. What has made conservatives most despondent as they watched their party take the reins of government is the prolific spending and earmarking. Inside-the-Beltway Republicans have embraced earmarking in a way that would make Bobby Byrd blush. As McCain says, Republicans came to change Washington and Washington changed them. It isn’t grassroots conservatives that are attacking McCain now, it’s the Republican lobbyists who have benefited greatly from the earmarks. This explains why Romney and Guiliani are getting the support of Republican insiders. Romney is joined at the hip to Clark and Weinstock and Guiliani to Bracewell Guuiliani. Both of these firms are in the earmark business, which is surprisingly easy and, astonishingly, legal. They collect hundreds of thousands in fees steering multi-million dollar earmarks to private companies, while each firm donates to Democrat and Republican appropriators. McCain would end this taxpayer-funded party (or at least turn down the music.) McCain should go after these earmarkers just as he went after Hillary’s earmark for Woodstock–directly with some Straight Talk. McCain is under attack from his own party’s fat cats. The scourge of earmarking is an issue McCain can use to rally the conservative base. “
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:37:57 pm
This makes some sense, but it’s the same kind of sense it made a year ago, and since then it’s become more clear what kind of problems the Rudy candidacy faces.
1) The argument you’re making is too elaborate for Mr. Noun-Verb-9/11 to pull off.
2) Even if Rudy did have the political acumen to make that argument, it wouldn’t win over enough people. Too much of Rudy’s previous support came from people who just didn’t know his positions on abortion, gay rights, etc. Now that they do, they won’t vote for him. Period.
3) There’s no particularly good reason for people who, for example, strongly oppose abortion to trust Giuliani’s pledge to leave it to the states. Rudy is the most authoritarian candidate in the race. His position on abortion doesn’t come from any principled commitment to federalism. It just happens to be the the position Giuliani himself holds. If he changes his mind about the issue, he’ll exercise the power of his office (and then some, probably) to shape things to his liking. (This should scare pro-choicers too, by the way.)
4) The more you get to know Rudy, the less you like him. And that phenomenon is bipartisan.
5) All those skeletons. The one that really seemed to hurt the most - it coincides with a pretty sharp dip in his polling numbers - was the revelation that he had been using city money to house his mistress and chauffeur her round town. That was a double whammy. It pissed off the small-government conservatives and the moral scolds.
Now, all that said, I still don’t have a frickin clue what’s going to happen. Maybe Rudy still has a chance. But I predicted here over a year ago that neither Giuliani nor McCain would get the nomination - and I’ll go ahead and stand by that.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:01:20 pm
As a Republican who values my civil liberties almost as much as my S550; the only thing more disastrous to me than Rudy-Tudy getting the nomination is four more years with our current stuttering Retard-in-Chief spending money like he’s in his late 30s again - running around Houston doing blow off the back of the toilet seats at the Ocean Club.
As my media man-crush Tucker Carlson quipped, “Giuliani would make a great President…President of Pakistan.â€
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:29:46 pm
The more I think about it, Rudy Giuliani is unelectable as a president for the same reason Newt Gingrich chose not to run. The personal life details will come home to roost.
This race will end up being about Romney vs. McCain.