Subtropical Storm Gabrielle has formed off the East Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches are up for much of the Carolina coasts. The official forecast calls for Gabrielle to become a mid-range tropical storm and swipe North Carolina’s Outer Banks late Sunday or early Monday before recurving out to sea. The computer models are in pretty good agreement about that scenario, though of course they disagree about the exact track. Meanwhile Matt Drudge, who has a bad habit of failing to update his hurricane-related stories until long after they’re obsolete (most memorably, he was still talking about Katrina making landfall in the Florida panhandle on the Saturday afternoon before it hit, at which point it was abundantly clear to everyone except him that New Orleans was the real story, not Florida), is still apparently convinced Gabrielle is going to hit New York City:

Not gonna happen. The scenario was at least arguably plausible a couple of days ago, when I mentioned it in my Pajamas Media post, and when Drudge first put up that headline, but it looks very unlikely now. Drudge, however, can’t be bothered with such minor details as the actual facts; he apparently doesn’t recognize that weather changes quickly, so you can’t just leave up a headline for 72 hours and expect that it will remain accurate. Ugh. (Hat tip: Alan Sullivan.)