It’s official. Tropical Depression 4 has become Tropical Storm Dean as of 11:00 AM EDT.

Hopefully “his” comment yesterday won’t come true: “I’m gonna go to Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and the Bahamas! And then I’m gonna go to Florida, and Alabama, and Mississippi, and Louisiana! And then my remnants are gonna recurve inland and rain on the White House! YARRRRH!!!”

Anyway, here’s what the discussion says, with a couple of key points boldfaced by yours truly:

SATELLITE IMAGES…MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT…DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS. [That translates to 115 to 125 mph — a Category 3 major hurricane. -ed.]

DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM…2 TO 3 DAYS…DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER…THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER…AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.

Alan Sullivan, in South Florida, is more hopeful today than he was yesterday that Dean will steer clear of his area:

My birthday present his arrived. No, it’s not a camera — that comes tomorrow. It’s a new set of projections for future hurricane Dean, keeping it out to sea, well NE of Florida. The East Coast trough is digging again. Models have consistently over-estimated the Bermuda high this summer. It has been weak or absent to the east at all times. Now the digging trough seems likely to recurve Dean enough to make for landfall somewhere from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia. Or there may be no landfall at all. …

The current trough alone should turn Dean clear of the islands, but it will probably not persist long enough to recurve Dean entirely. It will take a second one to turn the storm decisively away from eastern North America. We still have at least a week of uncertainty. But the threat to the Caribbean and Florida is diminishing.

Dr. Jeff Masters has more on Dean, as well as information on the potential Tropical Depression Five in the Gulf of Mexico (proto-Erin??) and Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific. (He’s got a radar image of Flossie nearing the Big Island.)

I’d post more, but I have baby shopping to do. :)