The GFS computer model, one of the most commonly looked-at global models, can’t decide where it wants Tropical Storm Dean to go. That’s hardly unusual, given how far away it is; we’re talking about projected landfalls that are almost two weeks away. Besides, as Alan Sullivan points out, Dean is struggling so mightily against wind shear right now, the computers “can hardly even see such a weak system.” Even so, it’s entertaining to watch the GFS’s predicted landfall points bounce around the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast. On his “Model Hype” blog, AccuWeather’s Jesse Farrell has posted an animated GIF showing the last two days’ GFS landfall predictions, which “started in Texas, moved up to the Canadian Maritimes, then back to Texas.” See for yourself:

And that, in a nutshell, is why you shouldn’t put any stock in individual computer model forecasts at this early date. Heh.