From the NHC’s 11 am discussion,
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME… RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 130 KT…BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS…AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
The advisory gives a central pressure of 925 mb, sustained winds at 150 mph. Landfall on the Yucatan is expected very early Tuesday morning, but conditions will be deteriorating today as the storm approaches. Hurricane warnings are in effect in Mexico and Belize from Cancun south to the Belize/Guatamala border, and also on the west coast of the Yucatan from south of Progresso to Ciudad del Carmen.