…leave!
Glenn Reynolds linked this morning to my post last night advising people in Jamaica and the Yucatan to “get the hell out” if they can. My phraseology was, of course, a throwback to my famous Katrina post in the same vein. And I mean it: in Jamaica especially, there is absolutely no reason to keep waiting for further information before making a decision — and by doing so, you risk delaying too much and becoming unable to leave.
Hurricane Dean will hit Jamaica, or pass very near Jamaica. The “macro” track forecast for the next 48 hours, which is the relevant period of time as far as Jamaica is concerned, appaers to be pretty much set in stone at this point. Only the “micro” track details remain to be determined (e.g., will it wobble a handful of miles to the right, and make a direct hit, or a handful of miles to the left, and deliver only a glancing blow?), and those details won’t be determined until it’s too late to evacuate anyway.
Likewise, on the intensity front, it remains to be seen whether Dean will live up to its potential (which, as I noted yesterday, is to become “Gilbert, the sequel“) or whether its growth will be stunted by dry air or shear, as Alan Sullivan suspects. However, again, that won’t be known for certain until it’s too late to evacuate. If the hurricane puts on a burst of rapid intensification 12 hours before landfall and goes from a Cat. 3 to a Cat. 5 in that time — which is entirely plausible — you won’t be able to get out once you realize for certain how bad it’s going to be.
You can’t wait for absolute certainty. It’s already certain enough. Now is the time for action, not deliberation. If you have no choice but to ride out the storm on the island, fine: figure out what is the safest place for you to be (hint: a well-constructed building, able to withstand very high winds, at a location far enough removed from the coast that it’s not vulnerable to storm surge, but not so high in the mountains that it’s vulnerable to mudslides, and not in an area that’s vulnerable to flash flooding) and make plans to go there. But if you can leave, then leave! This isn’t a difficult decision! There is a very serious possibility — not a certainty, but certainty is too much to ask — of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting Jamaica in two days’ time. Choosing to ride out such a monster anywhere, but especially in a third-world country, is a very bad choice.
When Hurricane Gilbert slammed Jamaica in 1988, it killed 45 people and caused $4 billion of damage. It destroyed houses, roads and small aircraft. It “severely damaged all but two medical facilities and 50% of the water supply.” So even if you survive the hurricane, the aftermath will be ugly, if it hits as badly as it could. Seriously — there’s no reason to risk it. Get the hell out.
(If you’re in the Yucatan, you might have an extra day to mull things over. But otherwise, the rest of the above applies equally to you. And personally, if I were your position, I wouldn’t mull; I’d leave ASAP.)
P.S. A commenter going by “HangGlider” left a comment on the previous thread saying: “My daughter and her husband left for Jamaica last Sunday for their honeymoon and have (foolishly - in their Father’s opinion) decided to stay on the island through the hurricane. I just hope the resort people have enough experience to get their customers to a safe location to ride out the storm.” I responded via e-mail, making a plea for him to try again to convince his daughter to change her mind, and I’ve reprinted that e-mail after the jump for anyone who might be in a similar situation.
HangGlider,
Hi there. I saw your comment about Hurricane Dean on my blog, and your daughter’s decision to stay in Jamaica. Needless to say, I agree with you that it’s a bad decision. I don’t know whether she might yet persuadable, but if there’s any chance, I’d highly recommend she check out my new blog post on the matter:
http://www.brendanloy.com/wp/2007/08/seriously-if-youre-in-jamaica.html
People have a bad habit of letting emotional considerations (e.g. the importance of a honeymoon, the desire to stay in the house they’ve lived in for X years and survived Y storms in, etc.) cloud their judgment in these life-or-death decisions. They also have a bad habit of looking at the storm as it is now, rather than as it will be when it reaches them. One of the reasons the evacuation of Houston before Hurricane Rita was so complete (too complete, really) was that it was already a terrifying Cat. 5 days before landfall, so people could see the threat with their own eyes. If Dean blows up in a Cat. 5 a day before landfall, your daughter will probably start to regret her decision — but it’ll be too late to change it. But there’s no reason to be surprised by its likely explosive development over the next two days; all signs suggest such development will indeed happen.
I suspect your daughter is probably thinking something along the lines of, “I don’t want to interrupt my honeymoon and then have it turn out to be a false alarm.” The thing is, it won’t be a false alarm. At best, Dean will deliver a glancing blow to the island, causing a lot of rain (and some flooding and perhaps mudslides) and a fair amount of wind. It won’t be devastating, but it will be unpleasant — in other words, it will interrupt her honeymoon, whether she likes it or not. And at worst, Dean will be an absolute disaster, ravaging the island, killing dozens or hundreds of people, destroying or damaging structures of all sorts (including hospitals - Gilbert did), messing up the water supply, cutting off all communications, etc. Something to mention to your daughter, BTW: she probably won’t be able to contact you, or the rest of her family, for days after the storm, maybe weeks, maybe until the end of her honeymoon (which won’t be much of a “honeymoon” if this thing hits). So even if she’s unhurt, the whole family will be freaking out because she won’t be able to contact you and tell you she’s okay. And even if she rides out the storm successfully, the aftermath will be hell, if it’s as bad as it could be. There is only so much resorts can do in these situations. All of these consequences are thoroughly foreseeable. Being in the path of a major hurricane in a third-world country is just never a good idea. A few stories of people on their honeymoons when Wilma hit the Yucatan last year:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4188/is_20051029/ai_n15814663
http://qd.typepad.com/26/2005/11/honeymoon_with_.html
http://www.radioiowa.com/gestalt/go.cfm?objectid=D31410C4-F8C4-469E-AE9857923A314F79
http://www.wilma.huryde.com/index.php?/archives/7-Hurricane-Honeymoon.html
http://www.jasonsantamaria.com/archive/2005/10/31/a_wedding_a_honeymoon_and_a_hurricane.php
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Categories: 2007 Hurricane Season
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August 17th, 2007 at 1:40:42 pm
Having worked in the disaster business for FEMA and in the private sector - and having worked the immediate aftermath of several hurricanes and typhoons - all I can add is that staying in the path of a storm like Dean is to become, when a means of escape is available, is willful idiocy in the extreme. Jamaica could well be back in the bronze age when this is over with.
August 17th, 2007 at 1:46:18 pm
Brendan Loy STORMBRINGER! (that’s not a good joke,but it came to mind) I for one hope your wrong but it’s looking more and more like your a pretty good forecaster,keep it up I’ll be watching as usual,
Bob
August 17th, 2007 at 1:53:47 pm
Only in blogo-land can some postgrad law student pass himself off as kind sort of expert on hurricane forecasting. Yeah, shit, by all means, let’s evacuate Jamaica, Mexico, and Texas on the basis of some jamoche with a keyboard.
August 17th, 2007 at 2:02:34 pm
Looks like Dean is getting stronger. He has a pronounced eye now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
August 17th, 2007 at 2:02:44 pm
Brendan, you’re doing a public service, and the personal reply to HangGlider is the work of a mensch. Keep up the good work!
August 17th, 2007 at 2:06:10 pm
Jere - in defense of Brendan, he has always been up front with the fact that he is not an expert in hurricane forecasting. But he knows who is, links to them generously and has an excellent way of cutting through the meteorological mumbo-jumbo and state the facts clearly and calmly. Follow the links, see what the experts are saying and you’ll understand that he is not sounding the alarm on Jamaica without reason.
August 17th, 2007 at 2:10:06 pm
Since when does someone have to be a professionally trained anything to be able to offer an opinion on something?
Bloy is offering a layperson’s educated opinion on a topic for which he has considerable insight. Don’t think he’s ever really claimed to be an expert on the subject. However, he’s way more educated on the subject than any other layperson I know. He references the information and data that the pros use in making his opinions known.
The “official” experts I would suspect would say something very similar, if you take a look at the forecast path of this storm. Regardless of the intensity of the storm, it sure looks like Jamaica is a dead-on target.
You can ride out a hurricane. It’s not so much THAT the wind is blowing. It’s really more of WHAT the wind is blowing.
Stifle it you shmucky troll.
August 17th, 2007 at 2:12:59 pm
Jere Shinot, yeah, by all means, let’s ignore sound advice when it’s offered, just because it was found on the internet. I don’t think reasoning that one should get out of the way of a Category 5 hurricane is a stretch. It’s common sense.
August 17th, 2007 at 2:14:09 pm
Bobnormal: “Brendan Loy STORMBRINGER!”
Sounds like a plan for a movie!
It will be previewed in southern Florida 25 August next year and have its official premiere at Biloxi and the NOLA Superdome a few days later. Starring Matt Damon as plucky young blogger Brendan Loy and Cuba Gooding, Jr as the lovable mayor Ray Nagin.
August 17th, 2007 at 2:21:55 pm
David It’s would be funnier if weren’t true,Brendan is pretty hip on the hurricane forecasting thing,and he cites the same sources i use when looking at this stuff.while I think Jeff Masters in an AGW guy he’s darn good at his day job,To all you (people)dog the man I don’t see you citing any evidence to the contrary,Dirtball Trolls!
Bob
August 17th, 2007 at 2:22:51 pm
Boy I should have previewed that closer I can’t type for crap!
Bob
August 17th, 2007 at 2:52:22 pm
Jay Johnson:
“Since when does someone have to be a professionally trained anything to be able to offer an opinion on something?
Bloy is offering a layperson’s educated opinion on a topic for which he has considerable insight. Don’t think he’s ever really claimed to be an expert on the subject. However, he’s way more educated on the subject than any other layperson I know. He references the information and data that the pros use in making his opinions known.”
Plus, Brendan is a heck of a writer.
August 17th, 2007 at 3:00:57 pm
Dean’s path so far reminds me far too much of Hurricane Allen in 1980. We’d be fortunate if Dean took the same path, passing Jamaica on the north side and not turning north after entering the Gulf of Mexico:
I did a quick overlay of Allen’s path to this morning’s model path for Dean:
http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e159/trepilynnell/Dean_vs_1980_Allen.gif
August 17th, 2007 at 3:35:04 pm
so nice of you to be concerned about your fellow-American tourists only. How exactly are the 2.5 million residents of the island supposed to evacuate in the next couple days? They’re not enough flights or ships even if they could all afford the fares!
August 17th, 2007 at 3:44:38 pm
Anon: Presumably citizens of Jamaica have their own Jamaican blogs detailing various Jamaican storm shelters and evacuation hideouts for their fellow Jamaican citizens. This blog is an American blog and is concerned with getting Americans out of safety in such a way as not to interfere with Jamaican preparation efforts.
Go flaunt elsewhere your sense of cultural superiority masquerading as compassion, please.
August 17th, 2007 at 3:45:38 pm
“out of danger”, that is. PIMF
August 17th, 2007 at 3:45:56 pm
Anonymous, I didn’t say anything about “tourists” specifically. However, you’re right, of course, that not everyone can leave the island. My point is that anyone who has the opportunity to leave the island should probably do so. I have no desire to wade into a broader debate about the socioeconomic implications of being a tourist in a third-world country and so forth. I don’t think I am somehow perpetuating the oppression of the poor by saying, “If you can get out, get out.” It’s not like it will somehow help the poor folks who are left behind if there are a bunch of rich white people there too, who could have left but instead foolishly chose to stay, and are now competing for the same resources in the storm’s aftermath! What exactly are you suggesting: that I should encourage rich people to stay behind and suffer with the poor people, in the name of equality and justice? That doesn’t make any sense. Better for as many people to leave as possibly can, so that after the storm, the aid can get to the people who need it, without resources being unnecessarily diverted to help the tourists and other people of means who needlessly stayed.
August 17th, 2007 at 3:51:38 pm
P.S. Anon, do you get equally upset when the State Department issues travel warnings suggesting that Americans not go to dangerous foreign countries where they might be the victims of violence, terrorism or war? After all, they aren’t suggesting any course of action for the people who live in those countries! I guess that means they’re agents of oppression, right? If we can’t help all of the people, we might as well help none of them! Great philosophy there.
August 17th, 2007 at 3:58:37 pm
I’ve been to Jamaica and it is a beautiful island. The trouble is, there is no place on the island that meets Brendan’s definition of a safe place. If the storm hits there is, basically, no where to go you are going to have to take the punch–and a punch from a cat 5 hurricane is not something I’d want to take if I could avoid it. Also, from experience, the taxi divers in NYC are saints compared to the ones in Jamaica — I can’t imagine they wouldn’t take as much advantage as possible from a situation like this so be careful.
August 17th, 2007 at 4:08:56 pm
My guess is that the honeymooners will run out of cash pretty soon after the storm. Credit card networks will be down for weeks. And prices will get jacked up, particularly for tourists with no connections and no options. How will they eat if they cant get out?
On the other hand, they will acheive new degrees of closeness while huddling in the bathtub during the hurricane (the best place to be in a hurricane because it is a windowless room)
August 17th, 2007 at 4:14:03 pm
I’d contend, that rich white folks staying behind makes it HARDER on the poor folk who are still there because of the increased demands on resources and added confusion, etc.
August 17th, 2007 at 5:30:36 pm
Hurricanes are an equal opportunity killer,(I lived through Camille ‘69)Don’t get classist people on this one,or any other,Brendan you have a lot of class letting these (people) post without deleting them Fair and Balanced,keep it up!
Bob
August 17th, 2007 at 5:32:06 pm
“rich white folks “ ???
“white” ?
Now, who is being bigoted/prejudiced ?
OY !
August 17th, 2007 at 9:04:39 pm
From the NOAA web site @ 1903 Mountain time, 8/17/07 :
“REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135
MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.”
August 17th, 2007 at 11:43:57 pm
“rich white folks “ ???
“white” ?
Now, who is being bigoted/prejudiced ?
OY !
Just when I think you can’t possibly make a stupider comment you prove me wrong. Bravo Alasdair, bravo.
August 18th, 2007 at 8:23:19 am
Hey hanglider, did your daughter get out?
August 18th, 2007 at 10:47:23 am
Tbone, I received an e-mail from her this morning (8/18) and they were able to find two tickets out of Montego Bay at 5:00 PM Jamaica time. Hopefully the winds will hold off long enough for them to get out. Thanks for asking!
August 19th, 2007 at 5:53:14 pm
I lived in Jamaica during and after Gilbert and I agree — everyone should leave asap. It was an awful, long-lasting mess — no phone for six months, no power at my house for theee months and, worst of all, no water for several weeks. And I worked at the US embassy and had access to the “best” of what was available. Even if this one doesn’t hit quite as hard, the place lacks the resources to deal well with the aftermath of anything serious (of course, post-Katrina, who are we to talk?)