As I looked for some different views on Hurricane Dean, I saw Eric Berger’s post asking “Has Hurricane Dean been overhyped?” I think it is a very interesting question because I started to wonder that myself from all the news stories I have seen… One of the stories I saw made the comment about “Dean heading straight for Cancun!” Really? To me the forecast track looks considerably to the south of both Cancun and Cozumel. Also Eric, highlights in his post this concern from Texas Lt. Gov David Dewhurst because two models still bring Dean into the state. He points out that these two models, the CLP5 and the LBAR, do not have the track record and in fact the CLP5 is not really a model.
In my opinion, as I see all the stories, reports, watch cable news where CNN has the edge of the screen showing the recent NHC report on Dean and the satellite image there. The promos on FOX News on how they are “Your Official source on Hurricane Dean.” So I asked myself, What would the coverage be like if Dean was actually going to HIT the United States. If this is the standard set for all Hurricanes the rest of the season, it will definitely be interesting.
I also have to ask, does Dean want to be a Category 5? I mean how many days are we going to report, “Dean is forecasted to become a category 5 in the next 24 to 36 hours.” Like I mentioned on my Weather Blog, I understand why we all forecast Dean to reach Category 5 strength, all the conditions are favorable for category 5 strength. It just doesn’t seem like Dean wants to take advantage of it. I am still going to agree with the current forecast, I just won’t be surprised if it stays a category 4.
Over at Dr. Jeff Master’s blog, it looks like he too is watching the potential proto-Felix.
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, “Invest 92L”, has changed little in organization today. Wind shear is about 5-10 knots in this region, and an upper-level anticyclone has formed over 92L. This is a very favorable environment for intensification, should 92L start to get organized. The disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. It is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and will be near the central Bahamas by Wednesday, and the east coast of Florida by Friday. It does not appear that any troughs strong enough to recurve 92L will swing by until Saturday at the earliest.
Brendan, hope your seminar is going well
August 20th, 2007 at 8:34:48 pm
Dean wasn’t overhyped last weekend while there was still a large chance that a Cat 4-5 was going to run over Jamaica, and while there was a small chance that it would end up here in Houston. As of yesterday morning, true, it was time for all of us to wash our panties. But we had no way of knowing that on Friday! Storms this big need to be warned about early.
August 20th, 2007 at 8:44:07 pm
I understand and agree. There was a lot of uncertainty at that time. The sky was the limit, Texas and other parts of the Gulf looked possible, and you need to let the people know this is possible and if they are remotely in the path you need to tell them and give them the information.
I am more or less talking about now talking about how I am hearing news and watching the coverage of Dean and thinking wow they are really beating that drum. It was more or less my own personal observation.