(Editor Note: Since I was still up and Brendan asked for some help posting while he sleeps and shops, I am posting the exact same post that is on my site WX-Man.com)

The newest advisory and most important the forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center is out at 5am. Virtually no change to what was discussed 3 hours ago, but there was verification that Dean did appeared to have weaken slightly based on the overall look and structure…

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LESS DISTINCT EYE WITH SOME WARMING OF THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS…ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD SYMMETRY AND STRONG OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY…WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED…THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES…AND IS PROBABLY ONLY A SHORT-TERM CHANGE. THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…SO….ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS…DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL…SHIPS…LGEM…AND FSSE GUIDANCE.

I agree Dean is probably going to gain Category 5 strength here in the next 24 hours. As it is said above all the conditions seem to be favorable, plus as the northwest quadrant of Dean leaves the influence of Hispaniola and is tapping into warm water with out friction you can see the convection beginning to return around the eye of Dean. I also think that just because the eye of Dean doesn’t directly “Hit” Jamaica it won’t be just as bad if it goes as forecast to the south. Just think of Mississippi and the brunt of the storm surge it got with Katrina. Let’s just pray that people took warnings serious and made all the precautions necessary for this storm. Mainly those who were visiting and could leave.