I don’t know much about annular hurricanes — I only first heard about them from Charles Fenwick’s post during Katrina — but I know they’re scary because they aren’t subject to eyewall replacement cycles (and can therefore maintain high intensities longer), and I know that, in Fenwick’s words, “the tell-tale sign of an annular hurricane is that the convection is uniform, making a perfect circle, i.e. there are no spiraling bands, just a donut.” … Well, take a look at Hurricane Dean:

Watching the satellite loop, does it look to anyone else like Dean getting more and more symmetrical, to the point of appearing almost annular in the image above? Could it be that, when the current eyewall replacement cycle is finally over, the “new and improved” Dean will be an annular hurricane? Because, uh, that wouldn’t be good.

I’d very much appreciate input from actual weather experts here, though, because this is definitely one of those cases where I’m at a major disadvantage, being merely a knowledgeable layperson. I don’t really have the skills to fully analyze what I’m seeing. I just see it, and think, “Uhh… is that what I think it is? Does it mean what I think it means?” But I’m not actually qualified to answer my own question.

[UPDATE: Brian Neudorff, a real live meteorologist, thinks Dean is weakening, possibly due to interaction with Hispaniola’s mountains. And he’s right, the satellite images have indeed gotten a bit more ragged-looking since the very symmetrical shot that I posted above. But the overall shape Dean seems to be trying to resolve himself into is more circular than before, with less pronounced spiral bands, so I still wonder if we might not have an annular — or quasi-annular? (is there such a thing?) — hurricane on our hands when the replacement cycle ends.]

Anyway, I’m off to bed. I have to wake up bright and early for some more Babies R Us shopping, and then I’m planning to go to the Four Leaf Peat concert in downtown Knoxville from 1-3 PM — by which point Dean will be getting very close to Jamaica, if not making landfall. So, what I’m saying is, my hurricane blogging may be a bit limited in the morning and afternoon, even though there will be lots going on to blog about. I’ll try and get some guestbloggers to help fill in, but if there’s nothing new here, I (again) highly recommend Dr. Jeff Masters, Eric Berger and Alan Sullivan, as well as all the other links in my “Hurricane Dean blogroll” at left. (I moved it to the left-hand column because I realized all my visitors from InstaPundit couldn’t see it, because the right-hand column doesn’t appear on permalink pages.)