From the National Hurricane Center:
DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING…WITH OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.
According to the latest forecast, Dean is looking like he likes the more Southern route, taking him right over Mexico and away from the Gulf. Of course, this is bad for Mexico, but good that he won’t reach the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
11 AM ET UPDATE:
Dean is gaining strength quickly, and is almost a Category 2 already. From the NHC advisory:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
Dean will be a Cat 2 hurricane when it reaches wind speeds of 96 mph. I presume when the next advisory comes out that will be a Cat 2.
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Categories: 2007 Hurricane Season
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August 16th, 2007 at 11:03:45 am
Commenting on other guestbloggers posts doesn’t count, right? :)
Andrew Leyden points out that the current run of the GFDL model has Dean making a beeline for New Orleans.
Of course, it’s an outlier, and you can’t trust individual computer models’ long-range forecasts, etc. etc. Still, interesting.