Dean to stay offshore of Jamaica?

Alan Sullivan thinks Hurricane Dean will deliver only a glancing blow to Jamaica:

I’ve just been studying the latest looped images of hurricane Dean. The storm continues to wobble in its course, but if one flattens the line, the trend is clear. That slight leftward shift I saw last evening was real. Dean’s eye will stay south of Jamaica. The northern eyewall will touch the jut of land southwest of Kingston, but it will not pass over the city. Sustained winds will likely not exceed 100mph in heavily populated areas. Dean will cause much damage and some loss of life on Jamaica, but this is a glancing blow, compared to what might have happened. The worst danger will probably be flash flooding as the hurricane pulls away from the island. Extremely intense convection has consistently occurred in the trailing feeder band as Dean crossed the Caribbean. South-facing slopes near Kingston could be especially hard-hit tonight.

I hope he’s right. The NHC forecast track agrees with him.

P.S. A random wobble, or another example of the power of prayer? We report, you decide!

3 Responses to “Dean to stay offshore of Jamaica?”

  1. Charles Fenwick says:

    Looking at the forecast and the satellite loop, it looks like Dean’s closest point of approach to Kingston is going to be comparable to that of Ivan back in 2004. It may come a little bit closer to the southwestern-most point however.

    The wind speed is comparable to what was in Ivan, however, the radius of hurricane force winds is a little bit larger (60 miles vice 45 miles).

    A significant plus relative to Ivan is that Dean is moving much quicker (18 mph vice 8). Because rainfall accumulation is inversely related to forward speed (i.e. slower storm = more rain), Dean shouldn’t put nearly as much rain on Jamaica as did Ivan (25+ inches in many places).

    Not to say that there won’t be widespread damage, but owing to the distance that it appears to going to keep from land and its forward speed, Dean will give Jamaica a fairly significant break from the worst case scenario.

  2. […] Brendan Loy pointed out on his site that, Alan Sullivan thinks Hurricane Dean will deliver only a glancing blow to Jamaica: I’ve just been studying the latest looped images of hurricane Dean. The storm continues to wobble in its course, but if one flattens the line, the trend is clear. That slight leftward shift I saw last evening was real. Dean’s eye will stay south of Jamaica. The northern eyewall will touch the jut of land southwest of Kingston, but it will not pass over the city. Sustained winds will likely not exceed 100mph in heavily populated areas. Dean will cause much damage and some loss of life on Jamaica, but this is a glancing blow, compared to what might have happened. The worst danger will probably be flash flooding as the hurricane pulls away from the island. Extremely intense convection has consistently occurred in the trailing feeder band as Dean crossed the Caribbean. South-facing slopes near Kingston could be especially hard-hit tonight. […]

  3. Brendan Loy says:

    Sorry my spam-filter caught your comment, Charles!! I just noticed it and undeleted it. My apologies, and thanks for the input.