The latest reconaissance flight into Hurricane Dean found a peak flight-level wind of 150 mph. That’s an increase from the previous flight’s 141 mph reading, but it still translates to “only” 135 mph winds at the surface — not enough to support Dean’s official intensity of 145 mph, if the normal formula is being used. The 11:00 pm discussion acknowledged that the official intensity “could be a bit on the high side,” but said they were waiting for more recon data. Now that data is in, and the intensity still appears to be on the high side — yet they didn’t change it in the 2:00 AM advisory.

Why? I suspect this one of those peculiar situations where the NHC forecasters are slightly overestimating the hurricane’s strength, on purpose, because they believe it will restrengthen soon and they don’t want people to let their guard down. The fear, I think, is that by acknowledging that the storm has temporarily weakened a bit, the NHC will encourage a premature sense of relief, which will quickly be replaced by a sort of whiplash effect when Dean blows up again tomorrow — which it probably will, given the low pressure (921 mb) and the fact that it’s completing an eyewall replacement cycle and approaching extremely warm waters. Is this honest? No, but I’ve seen it before, and I can see the logic behind it.

I could be wrong, of course, but that’s how I interpret these events. I think that, in reality, Dean briefly fell to Category 3 status last night, has regained minimal Cat. 4 status this morning, and is now revving up for a return to upper Cat. 4 and perhaps a foray into Cat. 5 territory later today. Let us all continue to pray that Dean spares Jamaica its worst. (Hey — prayer sometimes works!)