[UPDATE, 3:00 AM: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! My latest posts on Dean are here and here. And again, if you want to view all my latest Dean-related posts in one place, constantly updated, go to my hurricane category. Or my homepage, really — I doubt I’ll be blogging about much else today!]
The computer models — including the formerly recalcitrant GFDL — are now unanimous in predicting that Hurricane Dean will not hit the United States. The latest official NHC forecast track, in response to this strengthening consensus, has shifted to the left, and now predicts a final landfall about 210 miles south of the Texas border. Brownsville and Corpus Christi are still within the “cone of uncertainty,” but it appears increasingly likely that this country will be spared Dean’s fury. The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger has an excellent discussion of this. He concludes:
South Texas should remain on alert, but if the consensus among the models holds, it’s likely the United States could escape serious harm from an extremely powerful and damaging hurricane. We’re not there yet, but that’s the trend.
Should that come to pass I would hope Texas and the rest of the country would do what it could to help Jamaica and Mexico, as these two nations appear set to bear the brunt of the most intense hurricane to form since 2005’s Wilma.
Here are the current NHC forecast track map and Weather Underground model map:
In other news, the Space Shuttle will return home a day early because of Dean.
P.S. Meanwhile, Alan Sullivan offers a poetic prayer for Jamaica:
Merciful Lord, spare Kingston’s ramshackle port,
spare Spanish Town and even Montego Bay.
Hammer the sea, but keep your storm offshore.
Let vessels safely reach their quays, and crewmen
lash them down. Let shantytowns stay roofed,
and coconuts not cannonball through walls.Almighty, if it pleases you to rip
the tamarinds with sheets of windblown tin
and whip the alleyways with sparking wires,
if afterward a plague of flies and boils
afflicts the islanders, vouchsafe them faith
that they may build anew, yet believe in You.
(Hat tip: InstaPundit, who is also blogging heavily about the threat to the Cayman Islands.)
P.P.S. The Palm Beach Post’s Bob King points out: “Anyone looking for news from Jamaica can turn to the Internet radio stream from Power 106FM in Kingston, which is mixing reggae with frequent updates on Dean and advice on how to stay safe and sane.” I’ve added the link to my blogroll at right. Thanks, Bob!
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Categories: 2007 Hurricane Season
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August 18th, 2007 at 11:45:03 pm
I thought Dean was going to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, New York, the White House, Yeeargh!!!
August 19th, 2007 at 12:11:39 am
LOL, MMEsq! :)
But, someday the Big one that however-improbably does Go up the Joysey Shore to New York, will come. / And when it does, a mere “Yeeargh” is Not what we, or They, will say.
August 19th, 2007 at 12:12:14 am
Even if the Hurricane force of Dean misses the US, like the southern part of Texas needs anymore rain. Houston and San Antonio will be even more flooded.
August 19th, 2007 at 12:27:44 am
That latest track is just about the best possible outcome…miss Jamaica and the Caymans south, hit Yucatan in the less populated area north of the Belize border (rather than Cancun/Cozumel), and then a long run over land to degrade.
Fingers crossed…
August 19th, 2007 at 12:39:01 am
Brendan! Go to bed!! Now!!
8D
August 19th, 2007 at 12:40:42 am
Brendan,
What is the BAMM model, how reliable is it, and why is it showing landfall north of the others? Comments?
Jim C
August 19th, 2007 at 1:04:18 am
Jim,
From what I understand, the BAMM model is not considered as reliable as the other four shown on that chart. The other four as the “big four” dynamical models. I don’t really know what the BAMM is based on, but I would look primarily at the other four.
August 19th, 2007 at 1:50:55 am
Joe Loy: Yep, which is why when I replaced the roof on my 50-year-old house two years ago, I had hurricane straps installed. The roofer seemed kind of bemused, but I insisted on it. It only added about $1000 to the cost of the job. While the odds of a major hurricane hitting southeastern Pennsylvania within my lifetime are very small, they are NOT zero. :)
Brendan: Do you know of any websites that show the cumulative tracks of hurricanes over a period of time? I’ve searched but couldn’t find anything like that. There are sites that have all of the tracks for a single year, or for historic hurricanes. I’d like to see a map showing all of the known Category 4 or 5 hurricanes together.
August 20th, 2007 at 4:26:09 pm
I am no expert, but doesn’t it seem strange that virtually all the hurricanes over
the past few decades showed a distinctive fish-hook shaped path, usually from northwest
to northeast, yet Dean’s projected track is almost dead-straight? Is there some
weather pattern along the US southern seaboard to cause that phenomenon?
August 20th, 2007 at 4:27:31 pm
rickl-
unisys hosts a good one that lets you see all the tracks for a given year at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html