Tropical Storm Dean’s winds are up to 70 mph. One more bump, and he’ll be a hurricane. Also, Hurricane Watches are in effect for much of the Lesser Antilles. Map here.

Meanwhile, the tea-leaf-reading continues with regard to Dean’s eventual track. Alan Sullivan is reading some leaves that might suggest a more northerly course than expected:

This evening an upper low is closing off at the base of the unseasonal polar trough that has dipped all the way to the latitude of the Bahamas. This jet-level system is centered several hundred miles ENE of Abaco. It is supposed to move southwest then west into the Gulf, opening the way for Dean to make its way westward at a lower latitude. But I see no sign of the predicted movement. Instead the center of the Abaco low is lifting slightly northeast this evening, as though it means to go out to sea. This is why a few models still draw Dean onto a more northwest course. Florida and points north are not quite safe yet. We need to see how that upper low moves, and how the growing tropical cyclone responds.

Eric Berger, on the other hand, sees leaves pointing in the opposite direction — southward:

I’ll have an full analysis of the overnight models in the morning, but there seems to be some hope that the system might now remain south of the Gulf of Mexico. That would be bad news for Mexico, however, as Dean might cross the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche.