The NHC’s 11 am EDT discussion talks about the hurricane’s development after emerging back over water:
RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD … THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT…MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY…THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
The NHC’s 11 am EDT advisory talks about current warnings and forecast conditions along the Mexican coast:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ … DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO… WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES … MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB.
Dr. Jeff Masters discusses early damage estimates:
Dean lost its eyewall and became rather disorganized from its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula, and is only now beginning to increase its winds. With only a few hours left before landfall, Mexico is fortunate that Dean is moving so quickly–20 mph–and does not have time to organize further. The Mexican coast near the landfall point is the most densely populated area Dean will affect, and damage there will probably exceed $1 billion. Risk Management Solutions has estimated the insured damage to the Yucatan was between $750 million and $1.5 billion. Total damage is typically double the insured damage, so the price tag for Dean will be very steep for Mexico. Dean also did an estimated $3 billion in damage to Jamaica, and $270 million to Martinique.
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Categories: 2007 Hurricane Season
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