We’re getting into the climatological heart of the Atlantic hurricane season, when you’d expect the tropics to be teeming with activity if, as virtually everyone has predicted, this is going to end up being an above-average year for hurricanes. Tropical activity historically increases throughout late August and early September, peaking on September 10:
At the moment, however, it’s eerily quiet. Dean was the third-strongest landfalling Atlantic-basin hurricane in recorded history, but now it’s like the calm after the storm. The last six consecutive Tropical Weather Outlooks have said the exact same thing:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
It’s still not a “slow season” yet, but if this keeps up for the next couple weeks, it will be.
P.S. Alan Sullivan “continue[s] to expect a subnormal season.”
Meanwhile, Dr. Jeff Masters offers a wrap-up of Dean’s aftermath.
|
Categories: 2007 Hurricane Season
|
August 24th, 2007 at 8:06:30 pm
Oh, come on. That’s only a day and a half. Look at a couple of years with storm counts similar to the numbers predicted in this year’s NOAA forecast:
In 2003, which had 16-7-3 TC, there were nine days in August (8/18-8/26) without any named TC — at four TWOAT a day, that’s at least 36 TWOAT in a row without mentioning a named TC.
In 2001, which had a storm count of 15-9-4, there were five days (8/9-8/13) without a named storm — at least 20 outlooks in a row.
Katrina’s second aniversary is coming up next Wednesday. Could you please make a mention of the Katrina’s surge writeup I did last year (URL is linked). It is still very important to raise awareness of just how many miles of coastline were devastated from the storm surge.
August 24th, 2007 at 8:10:56 pm
Just a quick additional note — I would expect this Atlantic season to be a “late” one, with statistics skewed to peak a little later than the climatology referenced on your blog entry.
August 24th, 2007 at 8:31:50 pm
I blame global warming.
Yes..this is a joke
August 24th, 2007 at 8:36:38 pm
Margiekins, if this hurricane season is “late”, why did we have such an early start with Andrea back in May?
Brendan, when are you going to apologize to Matt Drudge? j/k
August 24th, 2007 at 8:49:35 pm
On the NHC chart that Brendan displayed on the blog entry, you see the climatology of the Atlantic season; it peaks from mid-August to late October. What I am saying is that the 2007 season will likely peak a little later than average.
And, 2001 will probably turn out to be a good analog year to 2007.
August 24th, 2007 at 9:58:31 pm
Don’t mind me, just passing through……got nothing to say here…nice weather we’re having huh? How ’bout them Dodgers?
I’m about to do an online ESPN Fantasy Football draft with another recent emigre to the Knoxville area……
August 25th, 2007 at 3:58:23 am
Sept 10 is the day which is most likely to have a storm or hurricane active.
The midpoint of all activity is somewhat later - about Sept 20 is my eyeballed guess.
Margie K: Why do you think this season will be late?
August 25th, 2007 at 11:38:56 am
Assessing insurance risk for hurricanes. Long but interesting article.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/magazine/26neworleans-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&adxnnl=0&adxnnlx=1188054007-zEOdT2NnUXkNQNvBDsnnWg