West Nile Virus has reached Newington’s shores. Or it would have, if Newington had shores. But I suppose it’ll have to be satisfied with reaching Newington’s arbitrarily drawn borders. Anyway, the point is, a mosquito in Newington tested positive for the virus. As they say on Fark, “EVERYBODY PANIC.”

[NOTE: A lengthier “get the hell out” advisory to folks in Jamaica can be found here.]

I’m breaking my Dean-silence 80 minutes early to report that the storm is now a Category 2 hurricane, with 100 mph winds, rapidly approaching the Lesser Antilles. Indeed, the outer bands are already affecting the islands, and the eye will pass through overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. A new advisory is due out within the next few minutes, and I’ll post an update after it’s released.

UPDATE: Dean is still at 100 mph as of 11:00 PM. According to Dr. Jeff Masters, the storm’s strengthening has stalled because “dry air on the storm’s northwest side…is getting wrapped into the storm. This dry air will persist through at least Friday, and should act to prevent Dean from undergoing rapid intensification until it clears the Lesser Antilles Islands.”

Once Dean gets into the Caribbean, however, it’ll be a different story. “Dean is steadily moistening the environment around it, and may be able to overcome the dry air on Friday and put on a burst of rapid intensification,” Masters writes. “I expect Dean will become a large and extremely dangerous major hurricane by Saturday.” And by Monday night, when it’s expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula, “The GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts both project Dean will be a Category 5 hurricane.” In fact, according to Eric Berger, the GFDL predicts that Dean will have 180 mph winds by Monday. Berger thinks “that’s almost certainly too high,” but I’m not sure why — as Dr. Masters noted earlier today, the Western Caribbean’s “ocean heat content is near the record levels observed during 2005.” Frankly, I’ll be surprised if Dean doesn’t reach at least 165 mph at some point between now and Monday night. It’ll probably take an unexpectedly severe run-in with either wind shear or dry air to prevent such an eventuality. (The NHC’s 11pm discussion provides a glimmer of hope on that front: “THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN…PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER LOW LAGS A BIT.”)

As for Dean’s future track, Berger says the latest model runs show “some hints that Dean might skirt the Yucatan peninsula and come into the Gulf between there and Cuba,” which would be the “worst-case scenario” that I diagrammed yesterday. But that’s four days away yet, and anyway most models still show the storm hitting the Yucatan.

After that? The current consensus is a final landfall somewhere between the Mexico-Belize border and the Texas-Louisiana border. Dr. Masters said earlier today that he’d “be surprised to see Dean make a turn northwards in the Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana or points further east, as there are no strong troughs of low pressure coming across the U.S. until late next week.” That statement still appears to hold, for the most part, although the GFDL is now taking Dean toward western Louisiana.

In any event, rather than dissecting the current model runs too closely, the best course of action is probably to take a deep breath and wait until tomorrow morning. As Dr. Masters points out, “Tonight marks the first flight of the NOAA jet, and we’ll have a much more reliable set of model runs Friday morning. Hopefully, this will narrow down the uncertainty of what will happen when Dean reaches the Gulf of Mexico.” Berger agrees, saying it will be “more prudent to seriously consider the models tomorrow morning, when they have aircraft data for the first time and hopefully a better handle on the atmospheric dynamics that will guide Dean early next week.”

So keep an eye out for those 12Z (8:00 AM) model runs. The more “clustered” they look, the more confidence we can have in their predictions (though, as always, don’t make life-or-death decisions purely on the basis of computer models). When they’re available, you’ll be able to see them here and here and here and here.

P.S. If anybody in Jamaica or the Yucatan Peninsula is reading this, now would be a good time to, ahem, get the hell out. Or at least start making plans to get the hell out soon, because Dr. Masters believes the airports in Jamaica will close on Sunday, and the ones in the Yucatan will follow suit on Monday. And personally, I wouldn’t want to be in the path of Gilbert, the sequel if I could avoid it.

As for the U.S. Gulf Coast, it’s far too early to think about evacuating, but definitely keep an eye on this thing through the weekend. That goes doubly for Texas. Hard decisions may await early next week.

UPDATE, 12:54 PM: In a new post, I’ve written much more about the wisdom of evacuating if you’re in Jamaica or the Yucatan (especially Jamaica).

Oh, and the latest specs and track speculation on Dean can be found here.

Six ambulances are called to the collapsed Utah mine after at least two people were injured, CNN reports. Local media report a further collapse but it is not officially confirmed.

Visit CNN for the latest.

Jose Padilla is found guilty on charges he conspired to kill people in an overseas jihad and to fund and support overseas terrorism.

Visit CNN for the latest.

President Bush’s daughter, Jenna, is engaged to be married, the White House says.

Visit CNN for the latest.

ABC breaking news: “DOW FALLS BELOW 12,600, DURING AFTERNOON TRADING MARKING A 10 PERCENT LOSS FROM MOST RECENT HIGH — THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE 2002 THAT THE MARKET HAS SEEN A ‘CORRECTION’”

All-time NCAA basketball wins leader Pat Summitt, coach of the Tennessee Lady Vols and arch-nemesis of the UConn (Don’t Call Them Lady!) Huskies, has filed for divorce from her husband of 27 years. :(

UPDATE: Here’s the divorce complaint, in PDF form. (Hat tip: Jay.)

They picked Fort Lauderdale instead of Phoenix. Harumph!

From the National Hurricane Center:

DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING…WITH OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.

According to the latest forecast, Dean is looking like he likes the more Southern route, taking him right over Mexico and away from the Gulf. Of course, this is bad for Mexico, but good that he won’t reach the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

11 AM ET UPDATE:

Dean is gaining strength quickly, and is almost a Category 2 already. From the NHC advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

Dean will be a Cat 2 hurricane when it reaches wind speeds of 96 mph. I presume when the next advisory comes out that will be a Cat 2.

Things have gone from bad to worse for Michael Vick this week, culminating in a blockbuster civil suit:

Embattled NFL quarterback Michael Vick, facing federal charges related to his alleged participation in dogfighting, has been hit with a “$63,000,000,000 billion dollar” lawsuit filed by a South Carolina inmate who alleges the Atlanta Falcons star stole his pit bulls and sold them on eBay to buy “missiles from Iran,” FOX News has learned.

Jonathan Lee Riches filed the handwritten complaint over “theft and abuse of my animals” on July 23 in the U.S. District Court in Richmond, Va.

Click here to read the filing against Vick.

Riches alleges that Vick stole two white mixed pit bull dogs from his home in Holiday, Fla., and… goes on to allege that Vick sold the dogs on eBay and “used the proceeds to purchase missiles from the Iran government.”

The complaint also alleges that Vick would need those missiles because he pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda in February of this year.

“Michael Vick has to stop physically hurting my feelings and dashing my hopes,” Riches writes in the complaint.

Riches wants $63 billion dollars “backed by gold and silver” delivered to the front gates to the Williamsburg Federal Correctional facility in South Carolina. Riches is an inmate at the facility serving out a wire fraud conviction.

Okay, so, I have a ton of errands to run, tasks to accomplish, and house-cleaning to do this week, and it occurs to me that my typical obsessive blogging about Tropical Storm Dean is seriously impeding my progress. So, I’m declaring a personal period of Dean-silence for the next 23 hours and 8 minutes. :) If the guestbloggers want to post updates on Dean here, they are obviously welcome to do so, but I won’t be doing so myself.

If you want the latest on Dean — which will almost certainly become a hurricane today — please visit Dr. Jeff Masters, Eric Berger, Alan Sullivan, and the other fine sites linked at right — including, of course, the National Hurricane Center itself.