Tropical Storm Dean’s winds are up to 70 mph. One more bump, and he’ll be a hurricane. Also, Hurricane Watches are in effect for much of the Lesser Antilles. Map here.

Meanwhile, the tea-leaf-reading continues with regard to Dean’s eventual track. Alan Sullivan is reading some leaves that might suggest a more northerly course than expected:

This evening an upper low is closing off at the base of the unseasonal polar trough that has dipped all the way to the latitude of the Bahamas. This jet-level system is centered several hundred miles ENE of Abaco. It is supposed to move southwest then west into the Gulf, opening the way for Dean to make its way westward at a lower latitude. But I see no sign of the predicted movement. Instead the center of the Abaco low is lifting slightly northeast this evening, as though it means to go out to sea. This is why a few models still draw Dean onto a more northwest course. Florida and points north are not quite safe yet. We need to see how that upper low moves, and how the growing tropical cyclone responds.

Eric Berger, on the other hand, sees leaves pointing in the opposite direction — southward:

I’ll have an full analysis of the overnight models in the morning, but there seems to be some hope that the system might now remain south of the Gulf of Mexico. That would be bad news for Mexico, however, as Dean might cross the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche.

The 7.9 earthquake off Peru generated a tsunami, and tsunami warnings and watches have been issued all up and down the Pacific coasts of South and Central America. Specifically, a warning is in effect for Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and a watch is in effect for Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, Mexico and Honduras. From the official Pacific Tsunami Warning Center advisory:

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. WE HAVE OBSERVED A TSUNAMI SIGNAL ON THE DEEP OCEAN GAUGE OFF NORTHERN CHILE. A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

For Peru and parts of Chile and Ecuador, the tsunami, if it’s going to arrive, already has done so (or begun to do so) by now. For the rest of the threatened area, it’s still on its way. The advisory contains a list of estimated arrival times (in Zulu time, which is EDT +4 — so, this post was published at 0234Z).

Authorities are still evaluating whether Hawaii is threatened: “AN EVALUATION OF THE PACIFIC WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT IS UNDERWAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HAWAII COULD BE ELEVATED TO A WATCH OR WARNING STATUS.” The good news is, there’s still time to figure it out: if a tsunami is going to hit Hawaii, it wouldn’t arrive until 2:14 AM local time (8:14 AM EDT) at the earliest. The Honolulu Star-Bulletin is covering the story. (Hat tip: Blogs of War, via InstaPundit.)

The west coast of North America is not threatened: “The tsunami is not expected to threaten the US West Coast, BC, or Alaska. Based on the earthquake location, magnitude and observed tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts. Some of these areas may experience non-damaging sea level changes.”

UPDATE: Hawaii’s in the clear: “BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII AND THE ADVISORY FOR HAWAII IS…ENDED.”

UPDATE 2: So is everybody else: “THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND/OR WATCH ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED FOR PERU / CHILE / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PANAMA / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / GUATEMALA / EL SALVADOR / MEXICO / HONDURAS … SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. … NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. FOR ALL AREAS COVERED BY THIS CENTER…THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE CANCELLED.”

Three major earthquakes strike Peru — a magnitude 7.7 and two magnitude 7.5, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. There is no word on casualties but Reuters reports buildings shaking in the capital, Lima.

Visit CNN for the latest.

Becky is upset about the rising price of milk.

I don’t know how many of y’all watch Last Comic Standing, but this is one of my favorite moments from the season so far, and I was very happy to find a YouTube clip of it. The comic is Sabrina Matthews, and although she didn’t make the finals, I loved her joke about suicidal cats… and her quip about her own sexuality:

Funny stuff.

Allegiant Air will announce tomorrow that it will begin offering non-stop service from Knoxville to Phoenix, Fort Lauderdale, or both.

Given that one of the impending baby’s sets of grandparents live in the Phoenix area, it would be highly convenient if they’d choose Phoenix. :)

Tropical Storm Dean’s winds are up to 65 mph as of 5:00 PM, which puts it pretty darn close to hurricane status. The official forecast calls for it to become a Category 1 hurricane tomorrow, a Category 2 hurricane by landfall in the central Antilles on Friday, and a Category 4 hurricane in the Western Caribbean on Monday. Here’s the forecast track:

Here’s what the 5:00 PM discussion had to say about Dean’s future intensity:

BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE…THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM WATERS…THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS…GFDL…HWRF…AND LGEM MODELS.

Now, tropical track predictions are notoriously unreliable beyond five days out — indeed, even between three and five days, there is a huge error rate, which explains the wide “track cone” in the forecast graphic above — but even so, Dean’s expected course obviously implies the possibility that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico in roughly six days. What then? Alas, there is no reason to believe it couldn’t maintain monster hurricane status, or even strengthen, in the Gulf. Eric Berger, the Houston Chronicle’s “SciGuy,” examines the water temperatures in the Gulf, and concludes that it “looks pretty bad.” The sea-surface temperatures are “bath-tub-like” — indeed, they’re warmer than the waters in 2005 that fueled Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Thankfully, the tropical cyclone heat potential, which measures the depth of the warm water as well as its surface temperature, its somewhat lower than in ‘05. Still, there is plenty of warm water to fuel an intense hurricane. Berger writes:

The worst scenario would be for Dean to track into the Western Caribbean, south of Cuba, and move into the Gulf across warm, deep waters in the Yucatan channel. This would bring an undiminished hurricane into the warm Gulf where it would have a chance to strengthen further — although probably less explosively than in 2005. Wind shear is a wild card.

Let us hope it does not come to that.

Here’s a rough graphical representation of that “worst scenario,” drawn by yours truly based on the basinwise heat potential map. Please note, this is not a forecast; it’s just a drawing of the worst-case scenario in terms of the potential, based on oceanic heat, for explosive development:

Again, I’m not predicting that will happen; indeed, I have no reason to believe that such a sharp recurvature is likely. I’m just saying that’s the scenario we should root against. Or perhaps I should say, one of the scenarios to root against — here’s another one, involving less recurvature and slightly more land interaction, but still plenty of deep, bathtub-like water to feed the beast:

Yeah. Those scenarios would be bad. Hopefully something else happens… or wind shear intervenes… or the Saharan Sand Fairy sprinkles some more of her dust in the storm’s path. Because otherwise: yikes.

(I reiterate again: the above graphics are not forecasts.)

P.S. With regard to the official forecast track, and the age-old “line” vs. “cone” debate, Dr. Jeff Masters says that at least in the short term (i.e., the next 48 hours), we’re safe focusing more on the “line” and less on the “cone”:

The cone of uncertainty Friday morning, when Dean is expected to pass through the islands, covers a wide stretch of ocean from Grenada to Antigua. We can expect that this uncertainty cone is too wide, since the steering currents are relatively stable right now and Dean is well-formed. This puts the islands of Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe in the bulls-eye.

As an aside, I’d love to see the NHC start tailoring its “track cones,” or “cones of uncertainty” — whatever you want to call them — to the actual level of uncertainty for each individual storm, instead of relying purely on historical error rates. There is no question that some forecasts can be relied upon with more confidence than others, depending on computer-model agreement, steering-pattern stability, and so forth. Yet judging from the NHC’s graphics, you’d think that all track projections are created equal. Moreover, sometimes the NHC will choose to place the official forecast track in the left or right portion of the “guidance envelope”; when they do this, shouldn’t the uncertainty cone be fatter on one side than on the other? Yet it never is. I’d love to see this change.

Good grief. Fox News just called Erin a “powerful storm” that will “pack a punch” when it “slams” Texas. No wonder people get cynical!

I just got a call from Curtis at Apple. He read my manifesto about my PowerBook’s numerous problems, and has been researching the issues I reported. He agrees that, since I can boot up a different machine with the same OS, software and files without suffering the same problems, it must be a hardware, not software, issue — specifically, either the hard drive or main logic board (which are two of the few components that haven’t already been replaced). So Apple is going to send me a box to ship my computer back to the repair center, whereupon they’ll replace those components, “whether or not they pass testing,” and send it back to me. And if that still doesn’t fix the issues, then they’ll consider replacing the whole machine.

In addition to proposing this highly amenable course of action, Curtis apologized for all the trouble I’ve had. “It just seems like it’s been one thing after another,” he said. Indeed it has — and it’s so nice to hear an Apple employee say that! I think I’m beginning to understand why Bill Clinton’s “I feel your pain” line, while corny, worked so well. :) It really makes you feel better when somebody at least acknowledges your hardship. Oh, and he also gave me his personal office number, which is great, because it means I won’t have to navigate the labyrinthine Apple phone system if I have a problem in the course of this repair. I can just call Curtis.

Suffice it to say, I am a much more satisfied Apple customer right now than I have been for the last several months.

Anyway, once I receive the box, I’ll have up to 30 days to send the computer in — so, since this computer remains functional (albeit with lots of frustrating issues), I’m probably going to wait until Hurricane Dean is done and my website is moved off the dedicated server before sending it in. Indeed, I’ll probably wait until just after Labor Day, when my job has started and I won’t have much free time for computer use anyway. I need my computer too much for the next two weeks to part with it, even for a few days. So yeah, Mother Nature, if you could arrange to have a handful of hurricane-free days in early September, I’d appreciate it. :)

Dean and Erin.

Tropical Depression 5 is now Tropical Storm Erin, as of 11:30 AM this morning. It’s expected to hit South Texas early tomorrow morning. The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger notes that this will be the first Texas landfall since 2003: “Rita (2005) and re-born Ivan (2004) both technically missed Texas by hitting near the Louisiana-Texas border.”

Some strengthening is expected, but Erin shouldn’t have time to get too strong. As Dr. Jeff Masters says: “Wind shear over Erin is only 5-10 knots, and an upper-level high pressure system has parked itself directly over the storm. This is an ideal situation for intensification, since the upper-level high provides very favorable outflow at the top of the storm, venting all the air forced up at the center of the storm. … Spiral banding is starting to occur, along with good upper level outflow. Erin could grow in strength rapidly. Fortunately, the storm only has about 24 hours over water, so it should not be able to become more than a 55 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains will be the main threat from [Erin].” That threat is nothing to sneeze at, though, considering that South Texas definitely doesn’t need rain. Flooding is likely.

Meanwhile, the bigger story in the grand scheme of things is Tropical Storm Dean, which has strengthened to 60 mph and, according to Bryan Woods, “is already showing the start of an eyewall structure and could become a hurricane at any time.” Luckily, a patch of Saharan dust north of storm should prevent rapid intensification in the immediate future. Says Alan Sullivan: “Some of this air will be entrained into the circulation from the north through the next day or two, and it will surely stunt Dean’s growth.” Dr. Masters “expect[s] that this dry air will impede Dean enough so that the storm passes through the Lesser Antilles as a Category 1 hurricane.” Sullivan, on the other hand, expects a burst of rapid intensification just before it reaches the islands (which is expected to happen on Friday).

Whatever happens before Dean reaches the islands, everyone seems to agree that afterward, conditions are ripe for rapid intensification. In Masters’s words, “the environment moistens, shear stays low, and the heat content of the ocean greatly increases. The 06Z run of new HWRF model is again very aggressive intensifying Dean after it crosses into the Caribbean, bringing the storm to 928 mb (Category 4) on Monday morning near Jamaica. The GFDL model is not nearly as aggressive, putting Dean at 964 mb (Category 2) Monday morning. I can’t see any reason why Dean wouldn’t become a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by the time it reaches the Cuba/Jamaica region, unless it passes very close to the mountainous island of Hispaniola.”

Berger, in Houston, is worried:

Given the warmer water and lessening wind shear, the official forecast calls for a 115-mph, category-3 hurricane [in five days], but then hastens to add that because of the favorable conditions, Dean could be “notably stronger” than this.

The bad news is that the Gulf of Mexico is still warmer (I’ll do a full analysis this afternoon), and if Dean reaches the Gulf the United States will likely face a blow from a major hurricane.

And it’s looking increasingly likely that Dean will indeed reach the Gulf. The computer models have come into general agreement on a west-northwest track, as you can see:

Again, cue Dr. Masters:

The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday’s trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean’s likely track. At present, it appears that Dean’s main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast.

Berger concurs: “Although the models remain unreliable forecasting longer than five days, and Dean probably wouldn’t reach the Gulf for a week, the storm’s trend is clearly in our direction. … It remains early in Dean’s life, but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that the high-pressure system north of the tropical storm will weaken in time for it to re-curve northward and become a ‘fish’ storm, i.e. not affect land. Indeed, if the current trend continues the East coast will be out of the woods in a day or two for a possible strike. The Gulf, however, needs to remain quite alert and closely follow Dean’s progress.”

As an aside, the Space Shuttle Endeavour is scheduled to land on August 22 — assuming it’s deemed safe despite the gash in its heat shield. That’s right around the time Dean could be reaching the Gulf or Florida.

But some times you do have to give the man his due. What he says here seems rather astute and quite accurate. Well said, Mr. Cheney.

I’ve blogged a lot about Tommy Makem since his death two weeks ago, including a lengthy post explaining what he meant to me. But they say a picture’s worth a thousand words, and in this case, an audio clip is worth about a million of ‘em. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you… Brendan Loy, at 3 years old, singing about moonshine:

source file

The song is “The Hills of Connemara,” and I know it’s probably bad form to call myself “cute,” but good lord, is there anything more adorable than hearing a 3-year-old sing, “Run like the devil from the excise man”? :) I had no idea what any of it meant, of course; I just thought it was a fun song. But there you go: if you thought maybe I was exaggerating when I told those stories about singing rowdy Irish songs in my early childhood, now you know I wasn’t. (And if you ever wondered why I took such a liking to “Rocky Top,” maybe that question too is answered: apparently I just like songs about concealing illegal alcohol from the authorities!)

The audio clip comes from an old cassette tape, recently dug up by my mom, of my parents and I performing Irish music in our living room for my Grandma and Grandpa Loomer and my Papa Loy — all now deceased — and my Uncle Robert, sometime in 1985. You can hear a lot of Grandpa in that clip; he’s the one who played an “A” for my mom before the song, who commented “the show’s getting better, Robert,” and who cheered loudly at the end. In this later clip from the same concert, of “Place in the Choir,” you can hear Grandpa again at the end, and also Papa Loy saying “This is good, I want to hear the rest of it” when I abruptly interrupted the song to comment on our previous performance. (Hey, what do you want, I was three!) Entirely aside from the nostalgia of the music, and of hearing myself as a little kid, it’s also really cool to hear my grandfathers’ voices again. :) Anyway…

Judging by my parents’ comments, it seems that that was the first time I ever sang along with them on “Place in the Choir.” Which is pretty funny, because it soon became one of my all-time favorites, and has always remained so — to the point where, when my mom busted out the guitar last week in the Adirondacks so we could sing a few songs in Makem’s honor, it was one of the first songs I suggested. We had some trouble remembering the verses, but here it is: the same song, by the same singers, 22 years later…

Heh!

P.S. It’s possible I was 4 years old, not 3. The tape is labeled “1985,” so I’m assuming I was 3, since I didn’t turn 4 until October 30 of that year. But it could have been late 1985, in which case I would have been 4. It’s also possible the label is wrong. But in any event, I was really young.

So, I have a problem. My student health insurance from Notre Dame expires today, and my group health insurance from the State of Tennessee doesn’t kick in until October 1. That leaves me with a 46-day gap in coverage, which is less than ideal. It’s not a 63-day gap, thankfully, but still, being uninsured is never a terribly good idea. What if, heaven forbid, I get in a car accident or something? Even a plan with a large deductible would be mighty helpful if something catastrophic were to occur. So, I figured I would apply for some basic short-term insurance to tide me over. No big deal, right?

Ah, but it turns out it is a big deal. Every time I try to apply for a policy, I’m encountered with a question like this:

And when I click “yes” (because I’m an “expectant parent,” and my spouse is “now pregnant”) and try to continue, I’m told, “Thank you for your interest in Short Term Medical insurance. At this time, we are unable to issue you a policy because you do not meet the eligibility requirements.”

Huh? I’m “ineligible” for insurance because… my wife is pregnant? WTF?!?

Mind you, I’m not applying for family insurance. Becky wouldn’t be covered under my plan, so maternity costs aren’t an issue. Nor would our child be covered. (Indeed, there’s no child to cover — my requested term ends three months before the kid is due!) But for some reason, just being an expectant dad is enough to render me off-limits from the reach of private health insurance. I am persona non grata, as far as the insurance industry is concerned, because I made the grave mistake of doing my part to propagate the human race.

As it happens, a consumer watchdog group put out a press release about this very issue back in January. It states: “Firefighters, police officers, steel workers, expectant fathers, pregnant women and patients with asthma, acne, allergies, and toe nail fungus will not be sold health insurance policies in California, according to internal insurer underwriting guidelines made public today by the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights (FTCR).” Well, I guess it’s not just California. I’m in Tennessee, and it seems I, like those Golden State firefighters and fungus sufferers, have been placed in the seventh circle of health-insurance hell known as “Uninsurable.”

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