The Tennessee Volunteer mens’ basketball team has been on a tour of central Europe, playing exhibition games and doing some touristy-type things.

However, on the tour, Coach Pearl took his team to the site of the Terezin Concentration Camp. Coach Pearl, as a Jew and a coach and teacher of young people had some very nice thoughts to pass along while there. He wrote a special for the Knoxville News-Sentinel that I think is worthwhile for you all to check out.

I love this guy. He’s genuine, real, and exactly what you see. He has a commitment to his family, his team, and his community that is unlike any other person in a similar position I’ve ever seen. Taking the time away from the X’s and O’s to teach his players about something important for life outside of basketball shows me all I need to know about his priorities

I guess Brendan isn’t the only Domer to find his way to East Tennessee to start his way up the professional ladder. Jeff Samardzjia had his second strong outing in a row for the Tennessee Smokies on Sunday, posting a win in 6 1/3 innings, giving up four hits.

That is all.

At the risk of starting another blog brushfire, I need to correct the record about something that keeps coming up in the debate about hurricanes and (ugh) global warming.

There is a perception, repeated numerous times here and elsewhere, that meteorologists and climatologists have developed a habit of “crying wolf” about the number of storms that they expect to form in the Atlantic each year. This perception is understandable, for reasons that I’ll explain after the jump, but it’s also entirely incorrect. And I mean flatly, facially false.

The perception is based on one data point, namely the 2006 season, which is obviously not enough to demonstrate a trend or pattern. Between 2000 and 2005, the preseason forecasts actually underestimated the number of named storms every single year. And of course, as I’ve pointed out before, it’s laughably early in the 2007 season to be asking, “Where are all the hurricanes?”; the vast majority of the season still lies ahead, in terms of expected activity. It’s impossible to accurately assess the seasonal forecasts until mid-October at the earliest. So the only season the “cry wolf” crowd is really talking about is 2006.

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Rumor has it that Sam Raimi may direct The Hobbit for troubled New Line Cinemas — with Peter Jackson as producer!

We’re having a baby girl… and I’m already feeling protective of her. Stay away, as-yet-unborn potential male suitors! Perhaps we should stay in the South after all, and buy a shotgun. :)

P.S. In case anyone is wondering: I won’t be posting ultrasound photos or videos on the blog. Sorry to disappoint those who might have been looking forward to seeing them, but in keeping with the whole “we probably won’t be blogging about this stuff as much as you might think” concept, we’ve decided to share the actual images with close friends and family only. Blogging them for all the world to see would just seem a bit… weird. After all, the baby’s naked in there!

But the ultrasound went well, and everything looks good. Now we just have to pick out a name! (We had a boy’s name all picked out, but have been unable as yet to agree on a girl’s name.)

Oh, and we’re halfway done with this whole pregnancy thing. 20 weeks down, 20 weeks to go!

P.P.S. Quote of the day, by me, during Becky’s ultrasound: “I can’t believe you have an entire person inside you. I mean, I feel full when I have a burrito inside me.”

As expected, the vigorous tropical wave off the African coast has been designated Tropical Depression Four as of 11:00 AM EDT. It “could become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours,” but initially at least, strengthening will likely be slow due to wind shear today and tomorrow. There’s even a chance, as Eric Berger points out, that it could fall apart. But if it holds together until the shear abates, then it could be Katie bar the door:

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER…THE GLOBAL MODELS…EVEN THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITSELF…FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK…CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Of course, if those conditions actually materialize — low wind shear, high SSTs, and no other inhibiting factors like dry air or Saharan dust — the intensification probably won’t be “steady,” it’ll probably be rapid. Given the inherent limitations of intensity forecasting, the NHC would never predict such an eventuality this far in advance… but Alan Sullivan would, and does: “When the easterly sheer quits kicking its butt, rapid intensification is probable.”

In the discussion, the NHC points out, “IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS…ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.” That’s very true. But it isn’t stopping the weather nerds from speculating. For instance, Berger writes: “[D]ynamics in the upper atmosphere are such that T.D. Four is unlikely to curve poleward any time soon… In other words, the system’s most likely destination now is the Caribbean Sea, where waters are extremely warm.” On the other hand, Sullivan, who lives in South Florida, “think[s] early recurvature is still possible,” but is “also concerned about a mere leftward wobble that gets our storm north of Puerto Rico, followed by just enough building high pressure to head the cyclone west again. This is the Andrew scenario, and it is plausible for this system.” He concludes: “I feel exceptional uncertainty about the future course of our Atlantic cyclone. Destinations from Tampico to Halifax are plausible. The worst-case scenario of a first landfall in South Florida is plausible, too.” For what it’s worth, here’s what the computer models say, out to 120 hours:

Needless to say, it is waaaaay too early to put any stock in any particular forecast “line,” whether from the official forecast track, or from any particular computer model… such as, for example, the GFS, which shows Hurricane Dean moving up the Eastern Seaboard toward New England in 12 days:

What was I saying? Oh, right, don’t take any of these computer models seriously. :) Case in point: just a few days ago, the same GFS model was predicting a New Orleans landfall. (”I’m no Brendan Loy but the GFS does have a Category 2 Hurricane hitting New Orleans on August 23rd,” Jesse Ferrell wrote on Friday. Heh.) So just stay tuned, and if you’re in a coastal area anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts, brush up on your basic hurricane preparations — the ones that should always be in place this time of year anyway.

P.S. Ferrell points out that it might not be Dean: “Don’t assume that this will be Tropical Storm ‘Dean’ however… it could be ‘Erin’… some models are still talking about the system in the Caribbean becoming a tropical storm this week as well.”

P.P.S. Ferrell has added an update, pointing out the same thing I did: “The GFS now has the hurricane hitting New York City, after three consistent model runs hitting the Texas Coast.”

UPDATE: Dr. Masters has posted an update, in which he writes of T.D. 4’s future:

The total heat content of the ocean stays relatively low through the next 48 hours (Figure 1), so no rapid intensification is likely until Thursday, when the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFDL model intensifies TD 4 into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now. …

The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Friday will be. If the trough is stronger than currently forecast, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. This would be good for the islands, but potentially bad for the U.S. East Coast. The trough will likely not be strong enough to recurve TD 4 harmlessly out to sea, and the storm would then be forced westwards again by the next ridge of high pressure. A landfall along the U.S. East Coast as a hurricane–possibly a major hurricane–could result, unless the next trough of low pressure is strong enough to recurve the storm out to sea. The latest (12Z) run of the UKMET model has TD 4 passing through the very northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The 12Z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF have TD 4 jogging just far enough north that it would likely miss the islands. Some of these runs are considerably slower, delaying the possible impact to the islands to Saturday or Sunday. What may happen after 5 days is highly uncertain. Last night’s GFS model run had TD 4 eventually making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas. This morning’s run had it eventually hitting New England–a difference of about 2000 miles in landfall location!

Now President Bush really won’t have a brain. Longtime political puppeteer adviser Karl Rove will resign at the end of this month.

I got back a little while ago from a dark-sky viewing location along the Foothills Parkway, about an hour from our apartment, where I spent roughly 4 1/2 hours stargazing, chatting with fellow astronomy nerds, and watching for Perseids. I saw 136 meteors in all (135 at the lookout, 1 during the car ride home). Of those, there were maybe a dozen really spectacular meteors, including two bolides. Also, at least a dozen of the meteors I saw weren’t actually Perseids — they were either Delta Aquarids or random stray meteors. Anyway, it was a very enjoyable night of meteor-gazing. They came in bursts and lulls, but I’d say the average was at least one per minute during the last 30-45 minutes I was there. (I left around 4:00 AM.)

I didn’t get any really good meteor pictures, but I did manage one photo of a meteor’s trail. Also, I got two shots of… well, I’m not sure what they show, exactly. See for yourself here and here. They look kinda like nebulas, but they’re obviously much too big for that, and they only show up in a single picture before disappearing. I assume they’re somehow meteor-related.

Many more, better meteor photos can be found at SpaceWeather.com.

Not meteor-related, but still cool, is this picture of the Pleiades and Mars:

Anyway, I should get to bed, so I can at least catch a couple hours of sleep before Becky’s ultrasound at 10:00 AM. G’nite! (Er, G’morning!)