Dr. Jeff Masters believes that “Invest 90L” will become Tropical Depression 4 tomorrow or Tuesday, and he thinks it will ultimately become Hurricane Dean, and a threat to North America. In a post this morning, he writes:

Watching the computer model runs for 90L is not for the faint of heart. All the major models except the NOGAPS develop the system into a tropical storm or hurricane that tracks westward over the Atlantic, reaching the lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday night, August 16. There are four possible scenarios to consider:

1) A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. at that time, and this trough may deflect 90L northwards so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands, and then recurves harmlessly out to sea.

2) In keeping with the steering pattern we’ve observed since late July, the trough is expected to rapidly move onward, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. If the trough is not strong enough to recurve 90L out to sea, the storm will be forced to the west once more and eventually hit the East Coast of the U.S. This is the solution of last night’s ECMWF model.

3) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend’s trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm would eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution preferred by this morning’s GFS model.

4) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model.

Of the four scenarios, I believe #2 or #3 are most likely to occur–90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will affect the Caribbean and/or U.S. East Coast. Residents throughout the Caribbean and U.S. should anticipate the possibility that 90L may become a hurricane–and possibly a major hurricane–that will not recurve.

With regard to scenario #3, recall that the Gulf of Mexico is really, really warm right now, so it would be seriously bad news if any well-organized storm were to reach it.

Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, monster Category 4 Hurricane Flossie is expected to pass 50-100 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii late Tuesday or Wednesday. She will have weakened by then, though, probably to a Cat. 1.

Merv Griffin, the entertainer and multimillionaire entrepreneur, has died at 82, AP reports.

Visit CNN for the latest.

[Bumped to top. -ed.] … As mentioned earlier, the Perseid Meteor Shower is underway. It will peak Sunday night and Monday morning, and it’s expected to be a good one:

“It’s going to be a great show,” says Bill Cooke of NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center. “The Moon is new on August 12th–which means no moonlight, dark skies and plenty of meteors.” How many? Cooke estimates one or two Perseids per minute at the shower’s peak. …

The show begins between 9:00 and 10:00 pm [local time] on Sunday, August 12th, when Perseus rises in the northeast. This is the time to look for Perseid Earthgrazers–meteors that approach from the horizon and skim the atmosphere overhead like a stone skipping the surface of a pond.

“Earthgrazers are long, slow and colorful; they are among the most beautiful of meteors,” says Cooke. He cautions that an hour of watching may net only a few of these–”at most”–but seeing even one makes the long night worthwhile.

As the night unfolds, Perseus climbs higher and the meteor rate will increase many-fold. “By 2 am on Monday morning, August 13th, dozens of Perseids may be flitting across the sky every hour.” The crescendo comes before dawn when rates could exceed a meteor a minute.

SpaceWeather.com’s meteor gallery is here.

And by a wide margin, too. Though some believe it should have been wider.

Coming in second: Mike Huckabee. Wait, who? (Hat tip: NRO, via InstaPundit.)