The hurricane season hasn’t given us anything to fear yet in the tropical Atlantic, but there is some cause for concern looking forward, particularly along the Gulf Coast. The Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy looks at the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential maps, and notes that the Gulf and Western Caribbean are warmer than they were this time in 2005 — and the “heat potential generally should only increase during the next few months unless a major storm passes through and stirs up cooler water from below.”

So what does this tell us? I’m certainly not saying there’s another Rita or Katrina in store for this summer. But given the heat potential in the Gulf it’s possible, and coastal residents ought to be quite wary of tropical systems that develop in the Caribbean or reach the Gulf of Mexico.

So let us hope that wind shear, Saharan dust or other factors ensure that they do not.

Unfortunately, according to Dr. Jeff Masters, one of those “other factors” — the global steering currents — are about to shift in a way that would make a Gulf hurricane more likely:

[T]here is there a major development to report–it appears likely that a major shift in the weather pattern will occur in late July across the Northern Hemisphere. If the GFS model is correct, the trough of low pressure that has been consistently in place over the Eastern U.S. will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal risk. The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I’m forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July. Such a shift would bring the western U.S. some relief from the current heat wave, and bring high heat and air pollution problems to the Midwest and East Coast. How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict–it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season.

If you’re along the Gulf coast, there’s obviously no need to freak out — we’re talking about purely hypothetical hurricanes at this point, not even a twinkle in Mother Nature’s eye — but don’t get complacent, either, amid all this fallacious slow-season talk.

P.S. Alan Sullivan has more on the expected steering pattern shift:

The Dog Days may come early this year. Though the GFS model has been varying from run to run, the trend is unmistakeable. The hot western high pressure ridge spreads east over the next couple of weeks and merges with a strong Atlantic high to bring sultry weather for much of the US. Only the Great Lakes and the Northeast seem likely to retain a cooler flow from the persistent trough over eastern Canada.

This is hurricane weather. Such a pattern will steer tropical waves westward under the flank of the Atlantic high. They will tend to turn into the zone of weakness between high plains and Atlantic ridge axes. With such a pattern in place, any Atlantic or Caribbean hurricane is likely to strike Florida, the Gulf Coast, or both.

Fortunately there are no tropical disturbances at the threshold right now. Upper winds remain unfavorable over most of the tropical Atlantic. Any storm that does form will have to fight through numerous upper vortices. Surely one of more of the waves will organize in the next few weeks, but the storms should remain weak unless the swirly flow unkinks.