The plot thickens: at least half of the National Hurricane Center staff wants director Bill Proenza replaced, immediately if not sooner. Here is their statement (PDF):

An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new Director, and with the heart of the hurricane season fast approaching, urges the Department of Commerce to make this happen as quickly as possible. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return its focus to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in.

Among those signing the statement is senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila, who had previously refrained from explicitly calling for Proenza’s ouster. Now the four senior hurricane specialists who have weighed in on the matter — Avila, Franklin, Knabb and Pasch — are unanimous in their anti-Proenza stance. (The fifth specialist, Jack Beven, is on vacation and has not commented on the controversy.)

And the eggheads aren’t alone: as Margie Kieper notes, “It was very interesting that Proenza’s own administrative staff signed the petition. Many people at the center have had difficulties working with Proenza, and this factored heavily into some of the decisions. This is unfortunate because this past six months should have been the time to establish a rapport and good working relationship with the staff, and it is telling that not only the Senior Hurricane Specialists and other senior staff, but the administrative staff as well, are willing to go on record as stating that they would prefer a new NHC Director. It does appear that the concerns about whether Proenza can be an effective manager are valid ones, as it is hard to imagine how so many people could take this extreme position without there being quite a bit of substance to their concerns.”

CNN reports that the staff’s “dissatisfaction” with Proenza “stems not only from [his controversial] comments, but also from the environment at the center — one of closed doors and the public airing of dirty laundry.” This dispute looks more and more like a toxic mixture of science, ideology and petty office politics played out in an embarrassingly public arena.

Interestingly, Kieper says the Hurricane Research Division “discussed the matter at an all-hands meeting [Thursday morning], and unanimously supports Proenza. Of course, none of the HRD employees work for Proenza, so I am not sure how this vote of confidence would factor into any decision on Proenza’s tenure, and it seems that NOAA has already set in motion the actions that will lead to resignation or termination.”

I miss Max Mayfield.

(Hat tip: Mike Tichon.)

P.S. SciGuy asks a question that I, too, was wondering about: “Is some of the criticism among the senior forecasters a reflection of anger because none of them were selected for the director position?”

UPDATE: Margie Kieper says the answer to that last question is a definitive no:

This week Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin has taken the lead in speaking for the NHC employees. James is reserved and scholarly and a remarkably skilled meteorologist, with a wonderful sense of humor and exceptional writing skills. It took a lot of courage for him to step into the public spotlight. I can tell you that the step to share their side of the situation with the public was a last resort, and only taken after coming to the conclusion that it was completely necessary, and the right thing to do. Being in the media spotlight in this manner is not a comfortable thing for any of them, and not something they would have chosen if they had felt that they had any other option.

I have read many of the comments made to many of the news articles online. I have seen some terrible things said in these comments, which are mostly, but not all, anonymous. There is one thing in particular that I would like to emphasize — not a one of the senior forecasters has any kind of investment in trying to remove Bill Proenza in order to have the job himself. This speculation is patently untrue. I can also tell you that every single person at NHC is a consumate professional, and they will turn out the very best forecasts that they can regardless of any situation at NHC, and regardless of their personal views on this or any other situation.

Anyway, this morning’s update is that Proenza says he won’t resign — and in the process, according to forecaster Franklin, misrepresents the views of his staff. More after the jump.

From the latest Miami Herald article:

”I’m not going to resign,” he told The Miami Herald. “The staff here doesn’t dictate who the leader is. What a dangerous precedent when we allow subordinates to dictate their leadership by signing a petition.” …

[T]he rebellious staff members expressed disappointment in Proenza’s refusal to resign.

”He has poisoned the atmosphere here,” hurricane forecaster James Franklin said during a press conference conducted outside the building. “We would have liked to have Bill see that he didn’t have control of his staff and step down. That’s not going to happen.” …

Proenza, 62, who was out of town when the petition was signed and released, returned late Thursday to discover the full-blown mutiny. He insisted Friday that he was not going to be bullied into leaving a $150,000-a-year job he has held only six months.

He added, however, that he served at the pleasure of his bosses in Washington and would discuss the situation with them.

Those superiors also have been applying pressure, last month reprimanding him by letter and this week conducting a snap inspection of his operation — a process that will resume next week.

”In all sincerity, I need to discuss the way forward with Washington, D.C.,” Proenza said. “I work for the American people and I’m always prepared to provide for their greater good.”

He blamed nearly all of the turmoil on the actions of his bosses, particularly the ”extraordinary disruption” caused by the inspection launched by five federal officials, including an attorney versed in personnel matters.

”That triggered a frenzy of concern [within his staff] about mission deliver and-or one’s career,” he said.

‘I have employees tell me, ‘Bill, I am so much for you and for what you’ve brought in. But I’m so afraid that if I’m viewed to be with you and you leave, then I’m viewed as being in the wrong camp,’ ” Proenza said. …

In another development Thursday, a prominent private forecaster joined the call for Proenza’s resignation or ouster.

Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for the Weather Underground, which provides forecasts for The Associated Press, Google and hundreds of other clients, questioned the scientific basis of Proenza’s campaign to replace the aging QuikScat satellite.

”There’s never been anything like this,” Masters said. “He should resign this month.”

Masters…criticized the basis for Proenza’s assertion that the loss of QuikScat would diminish the accuracy of two-day forecasts by 10 percent and three-day forecasts by 16 percent. …

Masters said…Proenza’s estimates of forecast deterioration are based on a study that examines a small number of forecasts, is contradicted by other studies and has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, an unusual circumstance.

”To be in the most visible and responsible scientific position in our profession of meteorology, everything you do has to come from the science,” Masters said. “You have to fairly present it. If you don’t have the integrity to do that, you shouldn’t be in the job.”

But a leading QuikScat expert rose to Proenza’s defense.

Bob Atlas, who runs NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, was a key member of the team that developed and initially worked with QuikScat.

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a ”rigorous study” that provides the “most comprehensive study of QuikScat data related to hurricane predictions.” …

In addition, he said, Proenza’s estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

From forecaster Franklin, via Margie Kieper:

“We did that very reluctantly, to go to the press. We have been trying to work these issues with Bill since he has gotten here, we have been trying to work these issues through the system. The Department of Commerce special team that came down here last week was here because we have been trying to work these issues, quietly, in the system. But we were afraid that our feelings were not going to be adequately carried back to the Department of Commerce, and we wanted them to know how strongly so many of the staff felt about what was going on here, about how difficult it was getting for us to do our jobs here.

“We wanted them to know unambiguously that we needed Bill to leave. He has misrepresented the views of his staff repeatedly, chronically, he’s done it again in today’s comments in the Herald. The people who signed that letter are not afraid of losing their jobs. What they are afraid of is not being able to do their jobs effectively, to protect the American people from tropical cyclones.

“This is the same staff that worked so hard and came together as a family so well during Katrina and Rita and Wilma and the 2004 storms and the 2005 storms. This is the same staff and we want to be able to continue to do that, but Bill has poisoned the atmosphere here at the hurricane center.

“We’re a small group. We have an enormous responsibility; we are responsible for the safety of millions and millions of people that we don’t know. And where there are key events we pull together as a family to do that; we did it under Max and we did it under the directors before him.

“But he has divided the staff, he has been dismissive of the staff, he doesn’t respect the staff. He lies about what we say. And it was time for us to very clearly state that there are two sides to this story, and that’s why we made the statement that we made….There are staff members that will not meet with him in private, because they are afraid that he will lie or misrepresent what was said.”