Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix did rather well in its first weekend at the box office.
P.S. I just e-mailed Nikki Finke, in part:
I’ve been pondering the likely impact of the Harry Potter 7 book on the second-weekend receipts of the Harry Potter 5 movie. My theory is that next Friday’s receipts will be slightly elevated due to Potter fans whetting their appetites for the book by going to see the movie again, while next Saturday’s receipts will be drastically reduced because every Potter fan in the universe will be at home reading the book, not at the theater watching the movie. I’m just wondering what are proper metrics to test this theory. What would be the “expected” drop-off percentage — for a movie of Harry Potter’s caliber, released on a Wednesday — from first-Friday-to-second-Friday and from first-Saturday-to-second-Saturday? Maybe that’s too specific of a question to give a good answer to, but I’m wondering if you could give me some rough ballpark idea, at least. That way I can either gloat when my theory is proven right, or hang my head in shame when it’s proven wrong.
It’ll also be interesting to see the long-term impact of the book on the movie’s receipts after the second weekend — i.e., will the third week, fourth week, etc. see less robust box-office receipts that one would expect, because Potter fans will consider the movie “so last month” after reading the book and finding out how it all ends?
UPDATE: Finke writes back: “any drop off less than 50% would be considered normal. 30% or less incredible. 40% or less excellent. personally i dont think book will have any effect on movie either way. different animals.”
Well, she’s a box-office expert and I’m not, but I think the Harry Potter book is going to be such a cultural phenomenon that it will have a detectable effect. My guess is that the Friday “bump” might not be measurable, but the Saturday “dip” will. We’ll see.
As I wrote in my reply to Finke, “I suppose the question, really, is what percentage of next Saturday’s Order of the Phoenix watchers would normally be expected to be avid Potter fans, as opposed to casual moviegoers. The numbers of the latter won’t be impacted by the book’s timing. The numbers of the former, I think, will.”
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Categories: Harry Potter
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July 15th, 2007 at 5:55:35 pm
Somehow this all seems to be trying to Remind me of Something…something nonCinematic, I think…can’t quite Place it though…[scratches head]…nyaah well, better just Drop it… :}
[Don’t fret about it, gentle readers, just a little father&son politiconerdy stuff ;]
July 15th, 2007 at 8:54:54 pm
Ah, yes, but I think you forgot to factor into your theory that the Potter fans who bought the book on Saturday may well be done with the book in time to see Order of the Phoenix sometime Saturday night. Especially if they are crazy enough to be at any of the release parties and get the book at midnight. I read book 6 in 16 hours, and that was taking into account that I had 3 kids to take care of (i.e. FEED)! I imagine many of them could read the book and be at the theatres in time for the first showing.
As for me…well, it’ll be in my mailbox Saturday morning. And I can’t WAIT!
July 16th, 2007 at 4:01:54 pm
Trisha has a point. I was done with book 6 by 9am the day it was released, and that counts the fact that I had to walk an hour home from the bookstore.
Then again, if you’ve just rushed your way through book 7, are you really going to be in a mood to see movie 5? And, if you’re that obsessed, might not you have seen the 5th movie already?