I’ve been thinking lately about the electoral implications of a possible Rudy Giuliani candidacy — specifically, the fact that Rudy could potentially win New York (especially if he’s running against someone other than Hillary), which, it seemed to me as I initially considered it, would be pretty much “game over” for the Democrats. I mean, can the Dems win an electoral-college majority without New York?

Well, last night I did the math. One significant fact that I’d forgotten is that New York’s E.C. representation has fallen significantly from the 36 that I had in my head. That number was correct in the 1980s; it was 33 in the 1990s; and now it’s 31. But that’s still a lot of votes, and they’re votes the Dems are used to being able to just depend on without any effort. Not so if Rudy runs, methinks.

If Rudy’s the nominee and wins New York, the Democratic candidate could win both Florida and Ohio… and still lose the presidency, 270-268. (Heh. Ouch.) To win without New York, even with those two big-kahuna states in their corner, the Dems would need one additional Bush state, with New Mexico (5) or Iowa (7) being the most obvious possibilities. (Alternatively, if the Dems win New Mexico and Iowa, and also Missouri, they wouldn’t need Ohio — just Florida.)

Of course, it isn’t just New York’s 31 electoral votes that Giuliani could threaten to yank into the Republican column. As my dad pointed out when we talked about it on the phone last night (yes, this is what my father and I talk about… heh), Rudy could also put New Jersey’s 15 votes in play. If the GOP could capture NY and NJ, the Democrats would have a lot of ground to make up: they’d need Florida (27), Ohio (20), and 17 votes from some combination of New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), West Virginia (5) or some other states — maybe Nevada (5), Colorado (9) or Arizona (10)?

Anyway, the point is, it’s not impossible for the Democrats to win without New York and New Jersey, but it’s not easy, either. And in any event, Rudy would certainly expand the list of “battlegrounds” by making those states reasonable GOP targets. All of which could make a Giuliani candidacy very interesting.

Okay, dorky electoral-college nerdiness over, back to the bar.

P.S. You can play around with the Electoral College math yourself here.