One day after blasting the current crop of presidential candidates, Michael Bloomberg quit the GOP today, possibly setting the stage for an independent presidential run.
I think there is definitely room for a third-party candidacy in 2008, but I don’t think Bloomy is the right guy to fill that void. Any successful independent candidate needs to appeal to those disaffected voters whose views are generally to the right or center-right on fiscal issues but center-left on social issues: i.e., generally small-government, federalist/libertarian-ish folks. Those voters, on both sides of the aisle, are the ones who feel the most alienated by the two parties right now, IMHO. And I think most of them will react to Bloomberg the same way Glenn Reynolds does: “I’d like to see a third-party candidate, but I’d like one who stands for more freedom, not less, and the nannyish Lee Kuan Yew-wannabe Bloomberg clearly doesn’t fit that description.”
Maybe Bloomberg can position himself as a staunch states-rights (and cities-rights) guy, arguing that our federalist system leaves plenty of room for both types of state and local officials: the ones who are nannyish, and the ones who are more hands-off. In other words, maybe he can take the edge off his history of nannyism by convincing people that although he was a nannyish mayor, he wouldn’t be a nannyish president because he respects federalism. But I doubt that would work, even if it’s true (which I have no reason to believe it is).
P.S. Admittedly, maybe the reason I think an independent candidate needs to appeal to the demographic I described is because I’m a member of that demographic. :) But I don’t think so. I think that loosely described group — which is also mostly hawkish and generally tough on immigration — is the most susceptible of any large ideological group (other than the far left- and right-wing fringes, who aren’t large enough by themselves to support a serious, non-Nader/Buchanan-ish third-party candidacy) to the siren song of an independent candidate. I mean, what’s the alternative, really? If Bloomberg runs as liberal on social issues and nannyish on economic/regulatory issues, doesn’t that make him… a Democrat?
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Categories: Election 2008
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June 19th, 2007 at 11:20:29 pm
“maybe the reason I think an independent candidate needs to appeal to the demographic I described is because I’m a member of that demographic. :) But I don’t think so.”
Evidence for your position:
- that you’ve attracted a regular readership, many of whom are in the demographic you described.
- the voters you describe are, in each party, the less likely to avidly participate in “their” parties’ primaries which makes them less likely to be well represented by “their” candidates on Election Day
- Less evidentiary, but also indicative: what you describe *is* the conventional wisdom about third-party candidates.
June 20th, 2007 at 3:19:20 am
“I think there is definitely room for a third-party candidacy in 2008, but I don’t think Bloomy is the right guy to fill that void.”
Well if by “definitely room for” you mean, approximately, “an actual chance for Victory by”, I would agree. / But also, Mister Keep-The-Electoral-College :), if you mean more-or-less That, you may want to Review your Research which will re-Reveal that never in the Modern era of universal popular Election-of-Electors has there ever Been a Right Guy to fill that void.
NAOW then, ahh yew LIStenin’? ;> In any scenario in which either Hillary OR Rudy does or does Not emerge as a Major Party Nominee ~ including the one in which the Both of ‘em Do, as is an entirely plausible possibility ~ what Bloomie’s Vote CAN do is this: play Havoc with the still-Massive EV bloc called the State of New York. Depending on from Whom he predominately Pulls there, he could Swing NY either way ~ OR, he could Win it outright, thus potentially Throwing the election into the House, which is perennially the 3rd-party candidate’s Possible Dream. (Now, I could also discuss New Jersey…but, Naaah. :)
“Any successful independent candidate needs to appeal to those disaffected voters whose views are generally to the right or center-right on fiscal issues but center-left on social issues: i.e., generally small-government, federalist/libertarian-ish folks…I think that loosely described group — which is also mostly hawkish and generally tough on immigration — is the most susceptible…to the siren song of an independent candidate.”
Well, apart perhaps from the (admittedly Non-negligible) Immigration part, I think you have just described: Rudy. :> Will he Crap Out with the Supercreationist Republicans on MegaDuper Tuesday and suddenly Remember where he Put the Petitions, maaan? [Apologies to George Carlin :] Where have you gone, John B. Anderson, our Nation turns its Lonely eyes to yooou, Woo woo woooo [Apologies to Simon, Garfunkel, DiMaggio, & especially Mrs. Robinson :]
June 20th, 2007 at 3:36:07 am
P.S.: “Will he Crap Out with the Supercreationist Republicans on **MegaDuper Tuesday**…”
**Watch for a possible Analysis of the potentially-Delicious unintended Consequences of this Lemminglike state-by-state Stampede over the proverbial Cliff’sEdge next February 5. / Coming Sometimeorother {maybe :} to a Guestblog near You. :>
June 20th, 2007 at 8:41:45 am
States rights, City rights? The same guy who sends undercover investigators to another state to run sting ops?
AaaaHaaaaaaa
June 20th, 2007 at 5:44:54 pm
In a startling display of political perspicacity, Wolf Blitzer :) led off today’s CNN Situation Room report by dumping a barrelfull of historical icewater all over the putative Bloomberg Boomlet.
Wolf actually put up photos, and Electoral Vote totals, of much-ballyhooed 3rd-party candidates Teddy Roosevelt, Strom Thurmond, George Wallace, John Anderson, Ross Perot & Ralph Nader. / The Photos were impressive. :> As was Wolf’s commendably-accurate commentary, on the prospects for 3rd-party presidencies and snowballs in hell ;).
(This causes me to suspect that CNN may be tapping Jeff Greenfield for electionrelated Research again. This is a very poor Business practice, opening the door to the Creeping Redistinction of Reality from the rollicking Entertainment du Jour. Nobody will tune in to the Cable”news”ies just to learn the boring old Facts. :)
June 20th, 2007 at 8:36:03 pm
Elder Loy - do you *really* think we keep coming back here just for your Electoral Pectorals ?
(grin)
June 21st, 2007 at 10:18:10 am
Young padawan Alasdair ~ Yes. :) But as always, your muscular wordplay weighs in as very finny on anybody’s scales.
(dorsal grin ;)
(nowait, I take that Back :)
June 21st, 2007 at 5:19:55 pm
Awwww, shucks … Loy the Elder’s cheeks are always cute when they are in a grin, dorsal *or* ventral !
I wonder if your sprout could ever have imagined that his blog would one day be so incorriging of a Pair of Paronomaniacs !
June 21st, 2007 at 6:04:10 pm
Alasdair, you cunning linguist. Being notoriously in corregidor, you are ventralating yer erudition in public. Again. / Oh and you can speak for yourself about Señor Paron but I say he was a damn Dictator & so was Avita, so don’t cry fer Mee, bold Britennia.
:}