UPDATE: Margie Kieper is unimpressed.
UPDATE 2: The Storm Track is equally unimpressed: “I am not convinced that this system is even a tropical storm.”
Meanwhile, Dr. Jeff Masters provides some more historical perspective:
The hurricane season of 2007 is in second place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Third place is held by 1934, when the second storm of the year formed on June 4. The second storm of 1934 was also the worst June hurricane on record. It hit Central America as a Category 1 hurricane, dropping up to 25 inches of rain on Honduras, triggering landslides that killed 3,000 people.
There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1934 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and no intense hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts today. Various forecasts say it’ll be a active season. Of course, the forecasts said that last season, too, and then the forecasters were blindsided by Saharan dust and El Niño, proving once again that
global warming is a fraud global warming is real WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE long-term weather forecasting is, like, hard. And stuff.
Anyway, it’s nice to see a bit less hysterical hype accompanying the start of the season this year. Last year’s media circus surrounding June 1 was rather silly. As this post’s title states (and as I pointed out last year, too), there is nothing particularly special about the date June 1; the difference between May 31 and June 1, in terms of the likelihood of tropical formation, is no more drastic than the difference between June 1 and 2, or the difference between May 30 and 31. The first day of June is just an arbitrary cutoff date set by meteorological bureaucrats, and as Subtropical Storm Andrea proved, Mother Nature is under no obligation to pay attention to the meteorologists’ calendar.
The only thing that really changes today is that the National Hurricane Center starts issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks (at 5:30 AM, 11:30 AM, 5:30 PM and 10:30 PM). Here’s the second one of the season. It talks about a broad, disorganized area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico that is unlikely to develop into anything, although “only a small increase in the organization could bring the system to tropical or subtropical cyclone status.”
Well, actually, there’s at least one other thing that changes today. In recognition of the start of hurricane season, I moved my weather blogroll to the top of the right-hand column. :)
UPDATE: So much for “meaningless”! For the first time since 1968, a tropical storm has formed on June 1. Heh.
Peggy Noonan has a good column on the widening rift between the Bush Administration and the conservative movement, and more broadly on the administration’s failures. Money quote:
What I came in time to believe is that the great shortcoming of this White House, the great thing it is missing, is simple wisdom. Just wisdom–a sense that they did not invent history, that this moment is not all there is, that man has lived a long time and there are things that are true of him, that maturity is not the same thing as cowardice, that personal loyalty is not a good enough reason to put anyone in charge of anything, that the way it works in politics is a friend becomes a loyalist becomes a hack, and actually at this point in history we don’t need hacks.
For those who haven’t been following Matt Drudge’s orgasm of paranoia over Google’s new “Street View” feature, you can get caught up on all the fun with this BoingBoing post: Google Maps is spying on my cat!
Personally, I see this as yet another effort (along with the publication date of Harry Potter 7) to prevent me from passing the bar. Why would I want to review Torts and Contracts when I can spend my time virtually touring the streets of New York, looking at such landmarks as David Letterman’s theater, Rupert Gee’s Hello Deli, my old workplace, my old apartment and nearby Fort Tryon Park, the pet store 33rd & Bird, Central Park, Ground Zero and the World Trade Center PATH Station, Rockefeller Center, and of course my favorite place in New York, St. Patrick’s Cathedral? Etc., etc.
P.S. Take a virtual drive across the Brooklyn Bridge! Just go here and then click the NW arrow repeatedly.