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I’ve often prattled on, usually in rebuttal to partisan blithering from one side or the other, about how the Florida election in 2000 was really just a statistical tie, and what a freakish event it was that such a razor-close national election hinged on such a really, really, really razor-close state election.

Little did I know.

While doing some research for my Electoral College paper just now, I discovered a fascinating factoid that I’d never known before: according to Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S Presidential Elections, which has state-by-state popular vote tallies going all the way back to 1824, the 2000 presidential election in Florida was the closest in American history, percentage-wise. Not just among decisive or important states, but among all state presidential tallies, ever.

I realize that, on the surface, this may seem unsurprising, even blasé. Everybody knows Florida ‘00 was the closest election ever, right? But usually we only think of it in comparison to other close states that mattered, like Illinois and Texas in 1960 or Louisiana, Florida and South Carolina in 1876. Here, I’m comparing it to every single popular election for president ever held in any state — regardless of whether the national election was close, or whether the state in question impacted the national election at all — and it still comes out on top! That’s absolutely amazing, that the closest state presidential tally in American history also happened to decide one of the national elections in history.

To try and put it in some perspective… in the 46 presidential races since 1824, there have been 1,906 individual state popular-vote elections. Of those, only 70 individual state elections would have, by themselves, given the runner-up an Electoral College majority if he had won the state. What are the odds that the very closest of the 1,906 would also happen to be one of the 70?

Bush’s officially certified 537-vote margin over Gore amounted to a difference of 0.00901% out of the 5,963,110 votes cast in Florida. The only other margin that comes close is Henry Clay’s 0.01044% margin over Andrew Jackson in Maryland in 1832. Every other state presidential election winner in American history has had a margin at least twice the size of Bush’s in Florida seven years ago. All but four have had margins at least five times bigger.

The second-closest nationally decisive state presidential race in history was the 1884 election in New York, where Grover Cleveland beat James Blaine by 0.098%. That’s awfully close, but it’s only the 14th-closest overall, and the margin is more than ten times bigger than Bush’s margin over Gore in Florida ‘00.

Okay, I know, I’m geeking out about this. :) I just think it’s an incredible little mathematical nugget, which really shows what a truly freakish occurrence Florida 2000 was. We could keep having presidential elections under the Electoral College system for a thousand years, and there would probably never be another election where a state race that close decides the presidency.

For those who want to geek out with me, some statistical data, compiled by yours truly from Leip’s database, is after the jump.

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Wow, fellow ex-DTer Dave Chung has met a lot more famous people than me.

Let’s see, what famous people have I had my picture taken with? Well, there was Barney Frank… and of course Joe Lieberman… so I’m doing pretty well in the “Jewish members of Congress from New England” category… but other than that? Somewhere there’s a picture of me shaking Bill Clinton’s hand in 1992, I think… and, uh, does the Leprechaun count? No? How about Kyle Whelliston? Dammit. Oh, I almost forgot! Spike Lee! That one’s legit. But I still definitely have some catching up to do. :)

The good news: we’re owed a combined total of $1,033.44 in tax refunds from the Indiana, Arizona and federal governments.

The bad news: that’s $794.33 more than I initially thought we were owed, until Becky pointed out — after I’d finished the taxes (or thought I had) — that I’d made a couple of major omissions on Schedule E (dealing with deductions from our rental income in Arizona).

Why is this bad news? Well, aside from the annoyance of having to re-do all three sets of taxes, it’s a major blow to my ego. I mean, I’m the one who took a class in Federal Income Taxation last semester! Harumph!

Oh, well. The extra money will go a long way toward healing my bruised ego. :)

Will CBS’s Jericho be cancelled? It looks very possible, which is a shame, because the show has really come into its own over the last several weeks and has become genuinely good, instead of alternating between decent and cringeworthy, as it did for much of the pre-hiatus period (when, oddly, its ratings were higher).

A couple of all-Jericho-all-the-time blogs are worth mentioning here: Premium Hollywood: Jericho (okay, that’s actually a category, not a full-fledged blog) and Watching Jericho. The latter notes that the season finale has been set for May 9, and the official CBS spoiler reveals that “one of the town’s leaders will not survive when Jericho must defend itself against an attack by the citizens of the nearby city.” Sweet.

Michigan State, the team that knocked Notre Dame out of the college hockey playoffs, is playing Boston College for the national title as we speak. The Eagles lead the Spartans 1-0 at the end of the second period. I’ve been half-watching with the TV on mute while eating a late dinner, and MSU really squandered some great power-play opportunities in the second period. I just want to know, what the hell are you doing in the shotgun in a monsoon?!? Oh wait, wrong sport, sorry. :)

Speaking of hockey, the Sabres clinched the President’s Trophy, awarded to the team with the best regular-season record, by earning their franchise-record 53rd win today. This means they’re assured of home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs, including the Stanley Cup finals, if they get there. Nice! Now, if they can just avoid pulling a Detroit and losing in the first round…

Oh, and elsewhere in sports, there’s some golf tournament going on or something.

UPDATE: MSU rallies for three goals in the third period — including an empty-netter at the end — to win the national championship, 3-1. Congrats to the Spartans.

If Jim Cantore comes to your coastal community, you’re going to get hit by a hurricane. And if Al Gore comes to your town, it’s going to get cold.

Heh. (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

Al Gore hasn’t been in South Bend recently, but the Gore Effect may still apply, because yesterday Becky and I watched An Inconvenient Truth for the first time (it was in Becky’s Netflix queue), and today we wake up to April snow showers. So it was like we brought him here digitally. Sorry, everybody. :)

[Sadly necessary caveat: I’m just kidding around. Global warming is real. But even if you think it’s not real, you can’t use cold weather on a particular day as evidence that it’s not real. You just can’t. If you do, and you’re being serious rather than merely facetious, you’re a moron. For one thing, global warming can actually cause colder weather in some circumstances. But more fundamentally, weather ≠ climate. Claiming that a cold snap somehow “disproves” global warming is just as idiotic as holding up an individual warm (or stormy) weather event as “proof” that global warming is real. The proof is in the long-term climate trends, not short-term weather patterns. -ed.]

Bill O’Reilly looked fairly unbalanced during a heated argument with fellow Fox anchor Geraldo Rivera over illegal immigration and drunk driving on The O’Reilly Factor yesterday. The fireworks really begin around the 5:50 mark in the video clip:

Heh. Awesome. (Hat tip: Anonymous.)

P.S. MSNBC’s resident O’Reilly-hater, Keith Olbermann, in an “utterly unprecedented” and “shocking” development, gives a “Best Person in the World” award to Geraldo.

UPDATE: Even more awesome: the Chipmunked version of the Rivera-O’Reilly showdown. LOL!

FISHY FACE!

Who says the troops need body armor? They’ve got iPods to protect them! (Hat tip: Becky.)

(Actually, the soldier did have body armor on, but the iPod in his chest pocket was “enough to slow down the bullet to not pierce entirely through the body armor.” So I guess this means you can’t accuse Apple of not supporting the troops!)

P.S. Lots of people have offered to replace the iPod for free.

When I blogged last week in anticipation of the coming “beautiful April day[s],” this isn’t exactly what I had in mind:

The weather promises to get a little warmer in the next few days, but we’re only supposed to be in the upper 50s by next Saturday — nowhere near the 73° we hit the day before this cold snap started:

I realize this is the result of a giant arctic air mass that’s affecting the whole eastern half of the country, causing snow on the cherry blossoms and ear muffs at the Masters, but still, I can’t help thinking of it as sort of a giant farewell middle finger from South Bend. :)

Whereas the word idiotarian has existed for awhile now without any real definition;
Whereas any political term or affiliation needs a proper delineation;
Whereas a Party needs its own platform to keep its opinions and goals clear;
And whereas even the Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler doesn’t seem all that smart;
We present the following statement of position:

• Raise taxes, decrease spending.
• Tax the poor most; no taxes for the rich or middle class.
• To be fair, a Bridge to Nowhere for every state.
• In the name of equality, all consensual sex shall be illegal. All marriages must be straight and platonic.
• No more federal interstate funding for Hawaii. The government must protect the sanctity of words’ meanings.
• From now on, the government will legislate in the bathroom.
• Each state will determine whether or not men have the right to an abortion.
• Campaign Finance Reform: Third parties must take bribes like everyone else.
• Senators on the campaign trail may declare a “ghost runner” to vote for them.
• A single-payer system for groceries.
• The blood tax: everyone must give blood. Rarer blood types and donors with larger bodies must donate more because of the need and because they can.
• During wartime, everyone must clap to show they believe in the war. Anyone who doesn’t clap will be arrested for treason.
• Multiversal health care for all Americans. Because universal health care isn’t enough. Illegal immigrants only get galactic health care.
• It will be legal to yell fire in a crowded theater if there is, in fact, a fire in a crowded theater.
• Free speech will be allowed Monday through Friday, 8 to 4, and Saturday, 1 to 3, only in places that are neither public property nor privately owned by someone who disagrees with you. Keep track of important blackout dates and other restrictions.
• Questioning the veracity of the Bible will be hate speech. Beating a homosexual to death will not be a hate crime.
• Under the Party’s proposed PATRIOT III Act, libraries must report anyone who reads Harry Potter immediately to the proper authorities.
• As Biblical mandate should also be federal statute, it will be illegal to make clothing of more than one material.
• As freedom of religion is important, everyone will have the right to be whichever kind of Christian they like.
• It’s only torture if you get caught.
• Closed borders for peaceable people. Open borders for terrorists.
• Illegal immigration and murder are both illegal. Since crossing the border is just like murder, illegal immigrants should get the needle.
• Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we fight terrorism. We fund it every Tuesday and Thursday. We take off weekends, just like terrorists do.
• Texas may declare war independently of the rest of the country.
• Terrorist suspects in Guantanamo may have habeas corpus in the form of trial by ordeal or trial by champion.
• From now on, Social Security will work in reverse. The old will pay taxes to benefit the young.
• Medicare will now cover bloodletting and trepanning.
• Anyone who doesn’t beat their child will be arrested for child abuse.
• From now on, it’s reasonable search and seizure as long as you quote Shakespeare in the process.
• Astrology MUST be taught alongside astronomy in science class. Also, there must be equal time for the flat earth theory and the geocentric model.
• You may choose your own school, but only after you gain 1000 Education Points and after three years as a member. Subject to availability and the President’s permission. Restrictions apply.
• It will be the policy of the United States government to increase Global Warming exponentially.
• The Idiotarian Party fully supports free market socialism.
• In order to protect the Second Amendment, any and all crimes committed with a gun will be pardoned.
• In the name of reproductive freedom, women will have the right to choose their children’s names.
• In order to Protect The Children, all reproductive organs should be banned. That way, there won’t be any Children to Protect.

Much was made this college-basketball season about computer ratings that showed the Missouri Valley to be the nation’s sixth-best conference — ahead of the mighty Big 12, which came in seventh. This evidence seemed to support the conclusion that the MVC had joined the ranks of the big boys, and should no longer be considered a “mid-major.” But perhaps the opposite was true: perhaps the Missouri Valley is still a mid-major… and so is the Big 12.

This year’s version of the “coaching carousel” certainly seems to support that notion, as two of the Big 12’s most promising up-and-coming coaches were poached by better teams. First Bob Huggins abandoned Kansas State after just one year West Virginia, and now Billy Gillispie has left Texas A&M for Kentucky.

Isn’t this what routinely happens to successful mid-major schools? They have a good season or two, and then their coach gets stolen away by a major-conference school? Like the Air Force coach going to Colorado*, or the Butler coach going to Iowa? Welcome to the party, Big 12. Heh.

The Missouri Valley Conference, meanwhile, is doing a surprisingly good job of retaining its top coaches. Southern Illinois re-signed Chris Lowery to a seven-year, $5 million deal. And Creighton’s Dana Altman, after initially deciding to leave for Arkansas, had an abrupt change of heart and decided he belongs in Omaha. So he’s staying. Moreover, the bottom teams in the MVC are also acting like big-conference schools, firing their coaches for failing to meet expectations.

In other coaching news, former Gonzaga head coach Dan Monson, who recently resigned from the Minnesota job that he left the Zags for (thus starting the whole Tubby Smith-Billy Gillispie chain of events), has been hired by Long Beach State as its new head coach. Hmm, I wonder if a Gonzaga-LBSU game could be scheduled? Mark Few vs. his former boss? That’d be fun. Of course, Few will have a more immediate version of that when the Zags play San Diego in the WCC next year.

*Pay no attention to the fact that Colorado is in the Big 12, thus disrupting my theory.

Billy Packer hater that I am, I’m remiss in not blogging about the latest Packergate controversy. During an interview last Friday with PBS’s Charlie Rose, Packer accused Rose of “fagging out.” Here’s the clip:

The condemnations came fast and furious. Mjd wrote, “If you’re broadcasting the Final Four, and you’re the voice that accompanies the most watched college basketball game of the year, and you’ve been doing this for 33 years … I don’t think it’s asking much to keep the word ‘fag’ out of your mouth in public.” Deadspin mused, “If Packer really didn’t understand the term he was using, it’s probably not wise to allow a guy like that on television at all.” Sportable chimed in, “It’s hard to call Packer racist, homophobic, or sexist because it’s obvious that Packer hates everyone on Earth. … In other news, Tim Hardaway has announced that he’d love to assume Jim Nantz’s duties alongside Packer during next year’s NCAA Tournament.” Bloggers all over the college basketball blogosphere eagerly called for Packer’s firing.

Some, however, defended the old crank. Despite Boi From Troy’s inability to “find a non-offensive context for the term, ‘fagging out,’” Michael David Smith found just that:

I detest homophobia, and if a broadcaster went on the air and used the word “fag” as a homophobic slur, I’d find it offensive.

But that’s not what Billy Packer did. The word “fag” has multiple meanings, and when Packer told Charlie Rose, “you always fag out,” he wasn’t using the word as a homophobic slur. He was using it…to mean “exhaust or tire out.”

Awful Announcing isn’t buying it:

Ugh…okay. Here’s the thing….Yes, I understand what the term “fagging out” means. I get it….you tire out….like a cigarette burning out….fag is a British slang for cigarette. I get all of that. But why be that insensitive and use the phrase? It’s just so idiotic and ignorant to not pay attention to what you’re saying.

A Brazil nut was once known as a “N****r Toe”. Do we still call it that? Of course not….it’s an inflammatory term, and has no business in our dialect.

The Human Rights Campaign, a prominent gay-rights group, unsurprisingly agrees: “[E]very time someone uses the F Word, gay kids in high school die a little bit on the inside. … Billy Packer and the CBS Network should know better and must apologize for the hurt that this kind of remark causes.”

LeslieAnne Wade, vice president of communications for Sports, told Outsports, “I know he wasn’t meaning to be insensitive at all.” But she added, “While it is a term that is in the dictionary, it was still a poor choice of words. I’m confident that he would agree that it was a bad choice of words.”

Ms. Wade’s confidence, it turns out, was misplaced. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported:

CBS college basketball analyst Billy Packer said he wasn’t being insensitive or homophobic when he made a comment while being interviewed Friday from Atlanta on The Charlie Rose Show, which airs on PBS. …

“I said he fagged out on me and it had nothing to do with sexual connotation,” Packer said yesterday in a phone interview. “I got to know Charlie a number of years ago and have great admiration for his program and intellect. He is a big Dukie, and he has been talking a number of years about coming to the Final Four to be a runner.”

Dictionary.com defines fag out as meaning “to tire or weary by labor; exhaust.”

Which is what Packer said he meant.

“The term has nothing to do with sexuality,” Packer said. “I think he is the most eligible bachelor. It’s about a guy too lazy to get the work.” …

What Packer is probably most guilty of is being out of touch, which isn’t the first time this charge has been leveled. In 1996 he referred to then-Georgetown point guard (now former 76er) Allen Iverson as a “tough monkey.” Packer himself said he is not a politically correct person. …

And despite this latest controversy, he insists that he did nothing wrong. Packer said the expression comes out of the word fatigue.

“I can assure you I will use that phrase again and I won’t think twice about it,” he said. “My meaning is genuine.”

That last remark had even some of Packer’s defenders, like the above-quoted Michael David Smith, backtracking:

I initially defended Packer, but I have a harder time doing that now. Packer’s defiance runs in stark contrast to what a CBS spokeswoman said (”I’m confident that he would agree that it was a bad choice of words.”) And by saying he has great respect for Charlie Rose, is he implying that he would feel free to call someone a “fag” if he didn’t have great respect for him?

And Packer’s critics are even more up in arms: “No Billy your meaning was/is not genuine. If your meaning was genuine you would have either A) Not used a derogatory word no matter what the connotation was. B) Apologized if there was confusion/harm, and explained the true meaning of the term.”

So, where do I come down on all this? I’m of at least two minds on it… possibly three or four. On the one hand, I’m a strong believer in gay rights and a strong opponent of discrimination and bigotry, and as such, I have no love for people who use the word “fag” offensively. On the other hand, I’m also a strong opponent of political correctness run amok, and as such, I hate it when people get in trouble for such non-offenses as saying the word “niggardly” or using the expression “to call a spade a spade,” where there is absolutely no racist intent on the part of the speaker, nor any actual offensive content to the words spoken, only a misunderstanding whereby the listener believes — incorrectly — that something offensive has been said.

On the other other hand, isn’t there a point where it would be wiser to stop using an antiquated colloquialism that’s uncomfortably similar to a far more commonly used slur? It’s different when we’re talking about an actual word, like “niggardly,” or an expression that’s commonly used, like “call a spade a spade.” But does it make any sense to resurrect an outdated expression that nobody even uses any more, just as a matter of anti-PC principle, when it would be easier and less painful to just let it die?

On top of all that, and ultimately eclipsing all principled arguments, is the fact that I hate Billy Packer. Hate, hate, hate. I think he is a blight on the landscape of college basketball, and even if I thought he was getting in trouble for no good reason, the most I would do is shed a single tear for him while playing the CBS Sports theme song on the world’s smallest violin. There are about a thousand reasons why Billy Packer should have been fired long ago, so really, I would love to see him fired for this, whether that’s technically justifiable or not, just because it would mean he’d be gone — good riddance! — and replaced by a Final Four analyst who, you know, doesn’t suck. As a Deadspin commenter, quoted by Charles Rich, aptly put it: “Firing Billy Packer for a very un-PC statement is like putting Al Capone behind bars for tax evasion. Not the worst thing he’s ever done but we’ll take it!”

Contrary to previous reports, it now appears that Reggie Bush isn’t banned from the Playboy Mansion after all.