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Markazi ends Trojan Curse, wins men’s pool
Posted by on Monday, April 2, 2007 at 11:29 pm

After seven years of futility and frustration, a USC Trojan has finally won a Living Room Times NCAA basketball pool.

Sports Illustrated writer Arash Markazi, a 2004 ‘SC grad, won the 12th annual Times men’s pool with an all-time record 409 points out of a possible 477, clinching when Florida beat Ohio State, 84-75, in the national championship game. Markazi’s bracket was perfect for the entire second and third weekends of the tournament, the only time that has ever happened in a Times pool.

Scott Robertson, who would have won the pool if Ohio State had beaten Florida, finished second with 389 points. Joe Resper and Kendra Krauss tied for third with 387 points. Lauren Moy finished fifth with 385. Rounding out the top ten: Mike Marchand (379 points), Jeff Morrison (376), Randy Styles (374), Ginny Zak (371) and Scott Fort (367).

All of the top ten contestants, as well as 11th-place finishers P.J. Wanecski and Rachel Luberda (366 points apiece) and 13th-place finisher John McBride (365), surpassed the previous men’s pool record of 362 points, set by Brian Kiolbasa in 2005. (14th-place finisher Brian Dupuis equalled Kiolbasa’s ‘05 point total.) That is largely a reflection of the relative predictability of this year’s tournament. An “all chalk” bracket, picking all the favorites, would have tied for 18th out of 264 contestants, with 357 points.

Complete final standings are here and after the jump.

The win by Markazi, who worked with Brendan and Becky Loy (left) at the Daily Trojan, ends the “Trojan Curse,” which dated back to 2000, when USC-affiliated contestants began entering the annual Times men’s and women’s pools. Dozens of Trojans had competed in the 13 pools since then, and three had gone into a national-championship game with a chance to win the pool. On two occasions, it had taken a mighty second-half title-game comeback to prevent a Trojan from winning. But until now, no USC contestant had finished the job. Now, thanks to Florida’s repeat championship and Markazi’s outstanding bracket, one finally has.

In addition to successfully picking the winners of all the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight and Final Four games and the title game, Markazi also predicted the tournament’s biggest early-round upsets: #11 VCU over #6 Duke, #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame and #7 UNLV over #2 Wisconsin.

Even so, his early showing was mediocre: he went 24-for-32 in the first round, good enough for just a 93rd-place tie, and a 12-for-16 second round only lifted him into a tie for 54th place. Ironically, given his ultimate role as the breaker of the Trojan Curse, two of his early mistakes resulted from failing to predict the USC basketball team’s run to the Sweet Sixteen; Markazi picked the Trojans to lose in a first-round upset.

But the impact of Markazi’s early mistakes was quickly wiped out by his second- and third-weekend perfection. In that sense, he is similar to 2006 winner Mike Tran, whose bracket also improved drastically as the tournament went on. Tran went just 22-for-32 in the first round, but correctly predicted thirteen of the Sweet Sixteen, seven of the Elite Eight and three of the Final Four — with George Mason being his only mistake in the latter two cases. Tran also got both finalists right, but picked the wrong champion.

Markazi’s overall pool dominance does not approach Tran’s, despite his shattering of the points record. Tran won by a record-tying 47 points, and finished just six points short of Kiolbasa’s then-record point total in a year when the median score was the lowest in Times history. He was nearly perfect in predicting one of the most improbable Elite Eight and Final Fours in recent memory, and he finished a record-shattering 148 points ahead of the pool’s median score, well ahead of Markazi’s 125.

But Markazi’s raw point total is tied for the second-highest in any Times pool, men’s or women’s. His tally is exceeded only by Rick Boeckler’s 421 points in the 2003 women’s pool. Jenn Castelhano also had 409 points, the same total as Markazi, in the 2002 women’s pool. Scores in the women’s pool are traditionally higher than those in the men’s because the tournament is usually more predictable than the men’s (though that pattern has not held this year, with a #4 seed playing for the title tomorrow and the pool champion destined to finish with either 337 or 347 points, in either case the third-lowest winning total ever in a women’s pool).

Markazi’s success is not merely the result of a predictable tournament. His 125-point margin over the median, though well behind Tran’s, is the second-largest ever, surprassing Kiolbasa’s total of 110. (That the three highest margins over the median in Times history have occurred in the last three years — also the three largest pools in Times history — is probably not a coincidence. With more contestants competing, the odds of an “outlier” bracket, one that is substantially better than average, increases. It is also possible that this year’s median, 284 points, was lower than would otherwise have been expected because a notoriously unpredictable tournament like last year’s was followed immediately by such an overwhelmingly predictable one this year. With so many contestants on the lookout for the “next George Mason,” the predictable was, in a certain sense, unpredictable.)

As noted earlier, complete final standings of this year’s pool are here and below.

FINAL STANDINGS, 12TH ANNUAL LIVING ROOM TIMES MEN’S BASKETBALL POOL, 2007

1. Arash Markazi - 409
2. Scott Robertson - 389
3. Joe Resper - 387
3. Kendra Krauss - 387
5. Lauren Moy - 385
6. Mike Marchand - 379
7. Jeff Morrison - 376
8. Randy Styles - 374
9. Ginny Zak - 371
10. Scott Fort - 367
11. P.J. Wanecski - 366
11. Rachel Luberda - 366
13. John McBride - 365
14. Brian Dupuis - 362
15. A.J. St.. John - 361
16. Tom Greca - 360
17. Derek Walden - 359
18. Jeff Freeze - 357
19. Alex Whitfield - 352
19. Ben Sloniker - 352
19. Tom K. - 352
22. F X McGahee - 350
23. Danielle Davis - 347
24. Gerry deSimas, Jr. - 345
24. Jeffrey Grubin - 345
24. Andy Wendeln - 345
27. Josh Krause - 344
28. Diane Huffman - 343
28. Roland Opena - 343
30. Matt Higgins - 342
30. Paul Zak - 342
30. Kay Torg - 342
30. Soren Hammerschmidt - 342
34. Ben Eng - 340
34. Laurel VanBuskirk - 340
36. Dmytro Aponte - 339
36. Clayton Bassett - 339
36. Matt Wiser - 339
39. Dennis Chow - 338
40. Dave Martins - 337
40. Andrew Long - 337
42. Kristy McCray - 336
42. Greg Pimentel - 336
42. Jason McMahon - 336
45. Brian Neudorff - 335
46. Kurt Osterlitz - 333
47. Weston Cross - 332
48. Karin Back - 331
49. Logan Pugh - 328
50. Cath Doo - 327
50. Patrick Cullen - 327
50. Bill Pancoast - 327
50. Eli Styles - 327
50. Ian Auzenne - 327
55. Michael Walsh - 325
56. Conor Sullivan - 322
56. Ashley Hughes - 322
56. Scott Loomer - 322
56. Gary Kirby - 322
60. Chris Bossman - 319
60. Ted Zak - 319
60. Sean Sullivan - 319
63. Greg Plank - 317
64. Jon Sandlin - 316
64. Casey Zak - 316
66. Idalina Cultrera - 315
66. Rick Boeckler - 315
68. Jeremy Gist - 314
68. Andrew Leyden - 314
70. Ken Wagner - 313
70. James McGinnis - 313
72. Chris Aemisegger - 312
73. John McCaffrey - 310
74. Don LaPlante - 309
75. Jeff Cultrera - 307
76. Tristin Thomsen - 306
76. Brian Newbold - 306
78. Nathan Origer - 305
78. Ryan Dalidowitz - 305
78. John Chung - 305
81. Jenn Castelhano - 304
81. Wilson Loftis - 304
83. Joaquin Halsey - 303
84. Shari Long - 302
84. Brian Paine - 302
84. Alex Fleming - 302
84. Danielle Thomsen - 302
88. Justin Stolte - 301
88. Mark Saviola - 301
90. Jack Strayer - 300
90. Derek McDonald - 300
90. Matt Metcalf - 300
93. Tyler Condon - 299
93. Steve Copenhaver - 299
93. Sam Werner - 299
93. John Knowles - 299
97. Amy Greca - 298
97. Josh Britton - 298
99. Greg Kagan - 297
99. MT Swanson - 297
99. Liz Janelle - 297
99. Nate Evangelista - 297
99. Mike Wiser - 297
99. Earl Baker - 297
99. Matt Kagan - 297
106. Colin Pedicini - 296
107. Timothy Benson - 295
107. Keith Stefanczyk - 295
107. Tripp Tart - 295
110. Carol LaPlante - 294
110. Kendall Houk - 294
110. David Kreutz - 294
113. Aaron Garcia - 293
113. Stephen Leys - 293
113. Chris L. - 293
116. Alan Smithee - 292
116. Cam Thomas - 292
118. Germaine Gray - 291
118. Matt Scarborough - 291
120. Shireen Garcia - 290
120. Michael Tran - 290
120. Chris Evans - 290
123. Mike Dagen - 289
123. Emily Merkler - 289
123. Jeff Dickens - 289
126. Todd Mefferd - 287
126. Frank Nolan - 287
126. George Heidkamp - 287
129. Joe McDade - 286
129. Mark Nabong - 286
131. Tyson Rothermich - 285
132. Brian Richmond - 284
132. Steve McLachlan - 284
132. Kate Spitz - 284
135. Joshua Carpenter - 282
135. Peter Timbrell - 282
135. Adam De Guire - 282
135. T. Gritten - 282
135. Marcus Hill - 282
140. Sarah Wake - 281
140. Joey Serfass - 281
142. Eric Soskin - 280
142. Joe Loy - 280
142. Bill Weinstein - 280
142. Ryan McBride - 280
146. Tim Sheridan - 279
146. Tim Wendling - 279
146. Rick Garnett - 279
149. Matthew Thomsen - 278
149. Bob Lutts - 278
149. Dean Thornton - 278
152. Bonnie Stone - 276
153. Dan Dinunzio - 275
153. Mike Thompson - 275
153. Michael Rosenkrantz - 275
153. Russell Caplin - 275
157. Cam McLachlan - 274
158. Rachel Wetherill - 273
158. Mark Jordon - 273
160. Crystal Dalangin - 272
160. Justin Vale - 272
160. Jay Johnson - 272
163. Brenden Roche - 271
163. Pat Caplin - 271
165. Rob Atherton - 270
165. Brendan Loy - 270
167. Josh Townes - 268
168. Jennifer Elam - 267
168. Lauren Taylor - 267
168. Tim Brothers - 267
171. Steve Hartranft - 264
172. Kirby Bullard - 263
172. Luke Zanger - 263
174. Paul Lucht - 262
174. Khalil Aboukhaled - 262
174. Nick Voelker - 262
177. Stacey Tetreault - 261
177. Colleen Duggan - 261
177. Trisha Neudorff - 261
180. Mark Gardner - 260
180. Nick Surmacz - 260
180. Kevin Hauschulz - 260
180. Kevin Mocogni - 260
180. Sandy Pilz - 260
180. Helen Cochran - 260
186. Matt Drachenberg - 259
187. Matt Fairchild - 258
187. Nick Genco - 258
189. Dave Whelan - 257
189. Mike Davis - 257
191. Jen Mason - 256
192. Gabrielle Rose - 255
192. Greg Shtraks - 255
194. Scott Pollock - 254
195. Jay Barasch - 253
195. Victoria Wags - 253
197. Craig Frizzell - 252
198. Shaun Sullivan - 251
198. Mike Quinn - 251
198. Gary Atkinson - 251
201. Daniel Port - 250
201. Larry Caplin - 250
203. Jessica Cowans - 249
203. Bryan Rudolph - 249
205. Miranda Epperson - 248
205. Joel Thrift - 248
205. Charles Franz - 248
205. Andrew Hunter - 248
209. Kristy LaPlante - 247
209. Steve Koppitsch - 247
211. Joey Perucki - 245
212. Steve Shim - 243
212. Charles Fenwick - 243
214. Chris Pearsall - 242
215. Jon Schoenwetter - 240
215. Brandon Cox - 240
217. Todd Stigliano - 237
217. Lisa Velte - 237
217. Scott Schmidt - 237
220. Danny Pilz - 235
220. Marlene Saviola - 235
220. Ricardo Valenzuela - 235
220. Brian Kiolbasa - 235
224. Jessica Stolte - 234
225. Johanna Cummings - 233
225. Brandon Minich - 233
227. Dave Roberts - 229
228. Patrick Roach - 227
229. Josh Rubin - 226
230. Kristen Everson - 225
230. Becky Loy - 225
232. Barry Caro - 224
233. Roger Snyder - 221
234. Robbie Zak Loy - 220
234. Dan O’Hara - 220
236. Ashley Johnson - 215
236. Melanie Dickson - 215
238. Lauren Davis - 214
239. Nicole Simmons - 212
240. Brian Krusell - 210
240. Beth Milewski - 210
240. Keith Wood - 210
243. Greg Rauen - 208
244. Jarrad Hedes - 207
244. Christine Pierce - 207
246. Jon Caplin - 204
247. Marc LaPlante - 201
248. Carolyn Blessing - 197
249. Tommy Murray - 195
250. Courtney Tawresey - 194
251. Denise Reidy - 185
252. Brian Nicholson - 177
252. Bridget Saviola - 177
254. Buttercup Zak Loy - 167
255. Logan Wanecski - 165
256. Dane Lindberg - 162
257. Rosalie Town - 160
258. Shannon Steinmiller - 150
259. Katrina Lewonczyk - 140
260. Toby Zak Loy - 137
261. Jen H. - 133
262. Barbara Cross - 108
263. Sasha Zak Loy - 74




4 Comments on “Markazi ends Trojan Curse, wins men’s pool”

  1. Dan Port Says:

    Arash probably had inside info. Workin for SI and all, haha.

  2. mike marchand Says:

    Bleh. Ohio State playing like trash cost me four spots (and some money in a couple other pools).

    In happier news, I had WSBT-AM’s Weekday Sportsbeat Bracket Challenge sewed up even before the final game. No money, but I think they’ll give me T-shirts and stuff.

  3. Mike Says:

    I’m not sure I agree with your statistics, Brendan. A small number of entrants would seem to argue for a larger probability that there will be a bracket with a greater magnitude of difference from the median bracket in terms of pure point total. While it’s true that having a larger number of entrants increases the probability of having a statistically significant outlier, that comes from the fact that the margins of error shrink as you increase your sample size, and thus a smaller aggregate total difference is more likely to reach the threshold of statistical significance. But you’re not talking about dominance in terms of number of standard deviations above the mean or median, you’re talking about it in terms of raw numbers. There is certainly some threshold at which increasing the number of brackets entered increases the chance of one of them being more different from the median, it depends on what the underlying probability distribution is whether that threshold has been reached in these pools–after all, if you imagine a pool with only 4 participants, the odds of three contestants doing relatively poorly are not insignificant.

  4. duck thing Says:

    Booya — 107! Haha, I think I tied for 13th either last year or the year before; oh well. Too much faith in A&M will do that to ya (I got ridiculed on a Facebook pool for exactly the same thing). Anyway, nice to see some familiar names in the pool — it’s been a long, long time since high school… hope everybody is doing well.


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