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Winning a six-game, single-elimination tournament nearly always requires a bit of good luck. You need to play well, but sometimes, you also need your opponents to play poorly — and other times, you just need a break or two at the right time, whether it comes from a bad call, a lucky bounce or what-have-you. It happens every year. But sometimes it’s especially noteworthy.

Last year, I argued — and I still maintain this is true — that UCLA made it to the national championship game in large part due to a particularly remarkable string of good luck. Oh, sure, they played good defense and took advantage of the opportunities they were given. But the fact is, they benefited from an epic choke job by Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, and then managed to catch both Memphis and LSU on incredibly poor shooting nights in the Elite Eight and Final Four. Yes, the Bruins defense had something to do with that, but you’ll never convince me they deserve all the credit for Memphis shooting 31.5% from the field (not to mention 60% from the free-throw line) and LSU shooting 32.0% from the field (and 46.4% from the line!). The fact is, sometimes teams just go ice-cold, and that’s what happened to both sets of Tigers against the Bruins. Pundits largely ignored the “luck” factor, but the notion that UCLA’s defense was just so superhuman that it could magically cause any opponent’s offense to spontaneously implode was always laughable in my view, and it was clearly exposed as a fraud in the title game, when the Gators made the Bruins look like a high-school team in a 73-57 rout that wasn’t even that close. UCLA deserves credit for a great run last year, but simple good luck deserves quite a bit of credit, too.

This year, however, is a different story. UCLA has unquestionably earned its way to Atlanta with a string of dominating performances over good teams. In fact, the Bruins are the only team in the Final Four whose tournament run hasn’t had its share of flukes, close shaves and lucky breaks. In particular, the right side of the bracket might as well be called the “Borrowed Time Region,” because both Ohio State and Georgetown really should have been knocked out of the tournament long before now.

Xavier had the Buckeyes beaten in the second round, and would have finished the job if Ohio State hadn’t gotten any one of the three consecutive lucky breaks that it received in the closing seconds of regulation: the lack of an intentional-foul call against Greg Oden, the missed free throw by Justin Cage, and Xavier coach Sean Miller’s failure to have his players foul instead of giving up the tying 3. But all three of those breaks did go OSU’s way, and Buckeyes won in overtime. Then, as if to firm up their reputation as the tournament’s most Houdini-like team, Ohio State proceeded to fall behind Tennessee by 20 points late in the first half of their Sweet Sixteen game. Once again, it appeared the Buckeyes were finished. But the Vols couldn’t hold onto the massive lead, and their epic collapse paved the way for OSU’s trip to Atlanta.

Ohio State’s next opponent, Georgetown, knows a thing or two about benefitting from an opponent’s epic collapse. But before the Hoyas had the opportunity to watch North Carolina miss 22 of its last 24 shots and blow a 10-point lead with six minutes remaining in the Elite Eight, they first had to be gifted a Sweet Sixteen victory by a bad call in the closing seconds against Vanderbilt. I was rooting for the Hoyas (it’s my dad’s school, and I picked them to reach the Final Four), but let’s be honest: it really should have been Vandy playing UNC yesterday, because Jeff Green traveled before hitting the game-winning shot. It wasn’t called, however, so the Hoyas survived & advanced… and then North Carolina pulled off the greatest tournament choke job since that UCLA-Gonzaga game last year… so now Georgetown is Atlanta-bound. I’m not saying they don’t deserve it, but let’s not pretend they aren’t very, very lucky to be there.

Florida is a somewhat less obvious case, as there hasn’t been a single bad call or stunning rally that’s provided them with a clear-cut lucky break. But I continue to maintain that the Gators very definitely benefitted from favorable officiating in the Butler win, not because of any sort of conspiracy but because the refs’ approach to the game reinforced Florida’s overwhelming size advantage and made it virtually impossible for the Bulldgos to fully compensate with good fundamental defense. Simply put, the officials allowed the Gators to bump, push, and shoulder their way to the basket with impunity, an extreme version of a “let ‘em play” philosophy that turned the game from a skill contest into a brutish battle under the basket. The harshest and most consequential example came on a hoop that put Florida ahead for good with 2:34 left, when Al Horford knocked Brandon Crone over with a series of bumps and push-offs — and yet somehow, a foul was called on Crone, knocking him out of the game. The crowd erupted in boos of protest, Horford completed the three-point play, and the Gators were on their way to the Elite Eight; Butler would never get closer than three again. Watching that game in person, you really had the feeling that Butler would have won if they could have gotten over the hump and into the lead in the closing minutes… and if that call had gone the other way, they just might have. But it wasn’t to be. Now, could Florida have won without the officials’ help? Sure, absolutely. But given how remarkably close Butler came to winning despite Florida’s advantages in size, skill, athleticism and officiating, I think it’s fair to say that the Gators got lucky. Not quite as lucky as Ohio State and Georgetown, but lucky nonetheless.

So, what does any of this mean for the Final Four? Probably nothing. Plenty of teams have won championships while “living on borrowed time” after a lucky escape or two. And whoever wins the title will deserve all the credit in the world. After all, like I said, luck is part of the game, especially in a tournament like this.

Just don’t tell that to a Vanderbilt fan.

P.S. It’s scrolled way down the homepage now, but there’s a good discussion on a previous thread about bad officiating and the sports-journalism “code of silence.”

Kevin Hauschulz just can’t catch a break in a Living Room Times pool.

Hauschulz, who has competed in 21 of the 22 Times pools without ever winning, leads the 10th annual women’s pool at the end of the Sweet Sixteen — but incredibly, he is mathematically eliminated from any chance of winning the pool.

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J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Children of Húrin, a fleshed-out narrative version of a tale outlined briefly in The Silmarillion, has been completed by Tolkien’s son Christopher, and will be published April 17.

WOOHOO!!!!

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Wins by Florida and Georgetown created the perfect storm of competitive drama in the 12th annual Living Room Times men’s basketball pool, as a record six contestants enter the Final Four with a chance to win the pool.

Each possible combination of results in next Saturday’s national semifinals would create a different two-person battle for the pool championship, dependent on the outcome of the title game. Perhaps the most intriguing would be a UCLA vs. Ohio State championship, as that would create a “family feud” between Ginny Zak and her son-in-law Soren Hammerschmidt (with Zak needing the Buckeyes to win and Hammerschmidt needing the Bruins to win).

Whoever wins will set a new all-time record for the most points ever scored in a Living Room Times men’s pool. The old record, set two years ago by Brian Kiolbasa, is 362. This year’s winning total could be as high as 414, if Scott Robertson wins. It will be at least 370.

Zak, pool administrator Brendan Loy’s mother-in-law and a resident of Gold Canyon, Arizona, currently leads the pool with 351 out of a possible 412 points. As noted above, she will win the pool if Ohio State beats UCLA in the championship game.

Robertson, a University of Utah grad student and Irish Trojan blog reader since Hurricane Katrina, is second with 349 points. He will win if Ohio State beats Florida for the title.

John McBride, a student at the University of Iowa, is third with 345 points. A national championship for Georgetown, regardless of the Hoyas’ opponent, would give him the pool championship.

Arash Markazi, a 2004 USC alumnus and Sports Illustrated writer, is fourth with 344 points. He needs Florida to win the title; it does not matter who they beat in the title game. Markazi is the “Great Trojan Hope” in this pool, the last USC-affiliated contestant with a chance to become the first Trojan ever to win a Living Room Times pool.

A.J. St. John, who led until Georgetown beat North Carolina, is now fifth with 341 points, and is mathematically eliminated from any chance of winning. Eli Styles (in 31st place) was also eliminated by UNC’s loss.

The other two contestants with a chance to win are Hammerschmidt, a UCSB grad student, currently tied for 10th place with 322 points; and Newington High School senior Ryan Dalidowitz, currently tied for 36th place with 305 points. Hammerschmidt, who once attended UCLA as part of an exchange program, would win if UCLA beats Ohio State in the title game; Dalidowitz would win if the Bruins beat Georgetown for the championship.

Five of the six contestants with a chance to win the pool correctly predicted all of the Final Four teams. Only Zak whiffed on one of her predicted semifinalists; she picked Kansas as the national runner-up.

In addition to Robertson, McBride, Markazi, Hammerschmidt and Dalidowitz, fifteen others also picked a perfect Final Four: Mike Marchand (6th), Randy Styles (7th), P.J. Wanecski (9th), Joe Resper (T-10th), Kendra Krauss (T-10th), Lauren Moy (T-15th), Jeff Morrison (T-28th), Patrick Cullen (T-31st), Josh Krause (38th), Diane Huffman (T-39th), Joaquin Halsey (T-39th), Laurel VanBuskirk (T-49th), Greg Plank (T-54th), Sarah Wake (99th) and Steve Copenhaver (174th).

The Living Room Times pools are scored on a 5-7-10-15-20-25 basis, which is less heavily weighted toward the later rounds than many NCAA pools. This helps explain how a contestant who did not do well in the early rounds can be ranked as low as 99th or 174th despite getting the Final Four entirely right.

As for the contestants who are highly ranked but cannot win, they generally have identical picks to someone ranked ahead of them, and thus cannot overtake that contestant no matter what happens. For example, Marchand, Styles and Wanecski all predicted an Ohio State-over-Florida title game, which is also what Scott Robertson picked, and Robertson has done better than them in previous rounds. Thus, the best they can hope to finish is second, third and fifth, respectively, behind Robertson (and behind Zak as well, in Wanecski’s case).

Here’s a look at the final standings in each of the eight possible title-game scenarios:
• Florida over Ohio State
• Florida over Georgetown
• UCLA over Ohio State
• UCLA over Georgetown
• Ohio State over Florida
• Ohio State over UCLA
• Georgetown over Florida
• Georgetown over UCLA

Complete current standings are here and after the jump.

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North Carolina leads Georgetown, 59-53 with 15:37 left. If the Tar Heels win, the Final Four will consist of three #1 seeds and a #2 that really should be considered a “#1a,” considering they were effectively given home-court advantage against the fourth #1 seed. North Carolina vs. Ohio State and Florida vs. UCLA is pretty much the dream Final Four for anyone who loves powerhouse matchups; those were considered by many to be the top four teams in the country for much of the season.

Reviewing the pool scenarios… if the Tar Heels win, Ginny Zak, Ryan Dalidowitz and John McBride will be mathematically eliminated. If the Hoyas win, A.J. St. John and Eli Styles will be eliminated. Scott Robertson, Arash Markazi and Soren Hammerschmidt are safe for today and will enter the Final Four with a chance to win the pool.

UPDATE: With 44.5 seconds left, it’s UNC by 3 and Georgetown ball.

UPDATE 2: Wallace with the 3! Tie game! Carolina ball, 24.4 seconds left.

UPDATE 3: North Carolina misses on a good look, Georgetown rebounds, timeout, Hoyas ball, 1.6 seconds left.

UPDATE 4: Overtime!

UPDATE 5: Georgetown is dominating OT so far… leading 87-81 with 2:20 to go. (It was 81-81 at the end of regulation.)

UPDATE 6: Hoyas by 10 with 1:13 left! Woohoo!

UPDATE 7: Amazing… the Tar Heels had a 10-point lead with something like 5 or 6 minutes left… then Georgetown came storming back, and North Carolina has yet to score in overtime, with 31.9 left.

UPDATE 8: Georgetown 96, North Carolina 84, final. North Carolina missed 19 of its last 20 shots! The Hoyas are going to the Final Four! Wow!

We're en route back to South Bend. … Mathematically eliminated from the pool by Florida's win: Jon Sandlin, Karin Back, Scott Loomer, Michael Walsh and Rick Boeckler. Also, it's now certain that the men's pool points record will be broken.

So it’ll be a rematch of last year’s title game. Congrats to Florida, who was clearly the better team today and probably wins anyway, but where was the foul on that blatant hack? It just sucks that Oregon’s chance of a miracle comeback was derailed by a bad call.

UPDATE: To clarify what I’m talking about… with 26 seconds left, and Oregon trailing 79-74, Aaron Brooks drove to the basket and was hacked by a Florida defender. At least, that’s how it looked on the giant replay screen. But the ref apparently thought it was a clean block, so he swallowed his whistle and Florida got the ball back. Oregon promptly fouled, of course, and the Gators went up 81-74. On the subsequent possession, Oregon got a three-pointer and cut the lead to 81-77. It’s at that point that I said the game “could be tied right now,” the idea being that the bad no-call resulted in a 4-point swing in favor of the Gators (two points for Florida at the line, two points that Oregon could potentially have gotten at the line but didn’t because the foul wasn’t called). I realize now that my math was off, because of course, even if Oregon had gotten those two points at the line, presumably they would have fouled Florida anyway, so it was really only a 2-point swing. Still, if that three-pointer had cut it to 81-79 instead of 81-77, it obviously would have been a very different ending, potentially. But that’s a lot of wouldas, couldas and shouldas, and the reality is that, as I said above, Florida probably wins anyway… and they deserve it, as they were definitely the better team today. They outplayed Oregon more solidly than they outplayed Butler, IMHO. So I’m not blaming the refs for Oregon’s loss, I was just annoyed to see another example of what has been something of a pattern in these regionals: bad calls in crucial late-game situations. I know the refs are human, but still, you hate to see that. But Florida won fair and square, and like I said, congrats to them.

UPDATE 2: A good discussion in comments about officiating and the sports-journalism “code of silence.”

Could be tied right now, if not for ANOTHER potentially game-deciding awful call. Instead, Florida by 4 with 17 seconds left.

Oregon's Tajuan Porter, who had 8 three-pointers and 33 points on Friday, is 0 for 9 from 3 today, with 4 points. The Ducks' cold perimeter shooting has continued, and barring a Barton-style miracle, it looks like the Gators are Final Four-bound.

And this is why bottle caps are important: someone accidentally kicks your bottle, and suddenly $2.00 worth of water is spilled on the floor. Argh. And all because of an irrational, nannyish policy. Harumph. Anyway, Gators lead 61-57 with 10 minutes left.

UPDATE: As noted in comments on my previous post about the Bottle Cap Menace, the cap ban is apparently an NFL policy (the Edward Jones Dome is the home stadium of the St. Louis Rams):

I guess they missed the memo that the NFL doesn’t sponsor the NCAA Tournament, so its “guidelines” don’t matter for that event. Though oddly, the policy wasn’t enforced on Friday — only on Sunday — which is why I didn’t think to smuggle in my own bottle cap.

It’s a minor gripe, admittedly. But as I wrote in comments: “The ability to easily bring in bottle caps (or quarters, or AA batteries, or an endless variety of other small projectile objects) is precisely why the anti-bottle-cap policy is stupid. It inconveniences fans who are already paying ridiculous prices and now are getting an inferior product as a result of the ban, and it doesn’t actually prevent people from having objects that they can throw on the field/court. I suppose it might prevent a bit of spontaneous object-throwing, but…let’s be honest, the reason fans throw things on the field is because they get drunk, not because the temptation of having bottle caps is just so overwhelming that no one can resist throwing them.”

I’m impressed that Oregon is this close, given that they aren’t shooting terribly well. If they get hot in the second half, they can win.

Okay, paying $5 for a bottle of water is bad enough. Being told you can't have the bottle cap is completely ridiculous. Are they worried we'll throw it? I couldn't hit the court from here with a rocket launcher! And if I wanted to try, I'd use a quarter!

We have an extended official timeout due to one of the nets being broken. Some guy on a ladder is removing the old net. Does this mean he's going to the Final Four?:) Anyway, Florida leads 33-27 with 4:09 left in the half.

Beat Gators! (Noah sucks!)