I’ve written before about my annual ritual of last-minute bracket agonizing. So, with just over 15 hours until the tournament begins, naturally, I’m filled with doubt about my bracket.
First, here are a few things that are cast in stone:
• I’m picking Winthrop over Notre Dame — and indeed, into the Sweet 16 — then rooting against my bracket.
• USC will beat Arkansas and face Texas in the second round.
• Screw it, Gonzaga’s going to the Sweet 16. They’ve never let me down as a double-digit seed before. UCLA is going down… for real this time. Unlike some moustached NBA players I could mention, Derek Raivio won’t cry at center court with two seconds left.
• Texas A&M will win the national championship.
Now for the things I’m agonizing over:
• Should I go with my heart and pick USC over Texas… and perhaps even over North Carolina, into the Elite Eight, before losing to Georgetown? Or should I pick Kevin Durant & co., then (as with the ND-Winthrop game) root against my bracket?
• Speaking of Georgetown, should I pick them, even though they’re a “trendy” pick, or should I be bold and go with Washington State instead?
• VCU over Duke? Duke over VCU? Duke to the Sweet 16? Duke to the Elite Eight? Pittsburgh to the Elite Eight? Gonzaga to the Elite Eight? WTF do I do with that corner of the bracket?
• Apropos of which, if I have somebody relatively weak coming out of the bottom half of the West, does that mean I have to be boring and take Kansas to the Final Four? Or… Southern Illinois??
• Do I stick with my predicted second-round matchup of #12 Old Dominion vs. #13 Davidson, or do I wimp out?
• Since I’m going to pick Oregon to lose to Winthrop in the second round anyway, should I say the hell with it and pick Miami of Ohio over them in the first round?
• Florida or Wisconsin? Everyone and their brother will pick Florida. Do I go out on a limb and take the Badgers?
March 14th, 2007 at 9:10:19 pm
I averted my eyes and will not reading this post until after I finish my bracket. I’m fine with reading the “expert” opinions on espn, si.com, etc. but I hate reading those of friends and family because I don’t want to steal anything, or at least be accused of stealing anything.
I did read that you’re picking Winthrop over ND. Me too. But I don’t think I’m taking them any further than that.
I won’t go into everything I’m agonizing about because this could turn into the world’s longest comment.
March 14th, 2007 at 9:12:34 pm
Texas over USC
Wash St. will suffer the upset of the 1st round
Duke to the S16, but no further (and sry, but UCLA is coming out of that corner)
Go with ODU, they’re making it to the S16 as well
Wisconsin is the weakest #2 and will lose to Ga. Tech
March 14th, 2007 at 9:30:04 pm
I’ve “completed” my bracket (well, perhaps some fine-tuning will be required…).
I’m with you, Winthrop over ND.
I like Texas A&M, not sure what to do with them.
Geez,I hate to overthink these things….
March 14th, 2007 at 9:47:15 pm
Don’t trust an Big Team teams when you need them. They’ll let you down every time.
March 14th, 2007 at 9:50:36 pm
Wisconsin will not be able to compete
with the speedier teams. I assure you.
March 14th, 2007 at 10:16:36 pm
do what I do and have someone else flip a coin for you.
March 14th, 2007 at 10:30:12 pm
Heck, you’re going down anyway, Loy! And Davidson could really surprise…
March 14th, 2007 at 10:39:53 pm
I wouldn’t be shocked if Gonzaga lost in the first round. They miss me a lot.
Wish I could go back one more year, I suck in the pros.
March 14th, 2007 at 11:14:19 pm
Texas A & M, baby! They are the awesome!
Ever since my Aggie alumni cousin turned me into an Aggie (during their last bowl game, when I was visiting their house), and since I’ve been watching the basketball season, I’ve been inclined to pick them. So you aren’t even the only guy to have A & M in your pool (well, I checked, and I actually picked Pitt to win it all, So I want to change that NOW! Can I even DO that?). Heck, I’m even fonder of A & M than I am of Pitt. (Of course, if you look right NOW, I’ve picked Pitt over A & M in your pool, but have had several second thoughts about that one).
Pitt is worse than Penn State, but a deep run would make a lot of my friends happy. So, go Terps, Panthers, and Aggies!!
March 14th, 2007 at 11:17:48 pm
B. Minich, you can change your picks either by re-entering them from scratch, or by telling me which specific game results you want to change.
March 14th, 2007 at 11:26:04 pm
OK, thanks. (Runs off to change his bracket before . . . its TOO LATE!!)
March 15th, 2007 at 12:01:12 am
You’ve already seen my picks probably, so I won’t tell you what I think. But, let me point you to your own blogroll and tell you to check out Ken Pomeroy. He’s got some great stats that should help you make some decisions about who to pick and when.
March 15th, 2007 at 12:13:40 am
I’m taking Southern Illinois to win a few, especially over Illinois. I pick by “fun match-ups” a lot of the time, if they aren’t too implausible. For example: UCLA vs. Pitt - UCLA being led by Pitt’s last coach (and the program’s savior, really), Ben Howland, who also brought UCLA back. That Howland guy just might know what he’s doing. Anyway, I have Pitt taking that one. Jamie Dixon is too cool, sticking with the program through what most thought would be lean times, and has continued a Big East powerhouse. Howland got to the title game last year anyway - no need for a repeat when Pitt can beat him in the second round.
March 15th, 2007 at 12:21:14 am
Holy crap, take my word for it. I picked A&M just five minutes ago with no notion of what you were picking.
We’re going down together, Bren.
March 15th, 2007 at 1:31:11 am
Winthrop over ND? Why is everyone smoking so much peyote? Winthrop has no big men. Luke Harangody is going to dominate in the paint. What does Winthrop have? It played some decent teams at the start of the season when those teams were getting warmed up…and lost to all of them. ND, meanwhile, made it to the semis in the big east and had a clean look at a 3 to beat georgetown.
March 15th, 2007 at 1:58:15 am
Winthrop has no big men.
Actually, Winthrop has a 6-10, 242 senior center named Craig Bradshaw who is considered one of the best big men in the country. One of the very reasons that many analysts believe Winthrop has a shot to make a tourney run is because, like George Mason last year, they exhibit not just good guard play, but good play inside as well. It appears you haven’t done your homework vis a vis Winthrop, anon.
March 15th, 2007 at 2:11:44 am
If Winthrop beats ND, I’m holding you personally responsible.
Harrumph.
March 15th, 2007 at 2:16:26 am
LOL.
If it makes you feel any better, I’ve picked Gonzaga to win the national championship 3 of the last 4 seasons. :)
March 15th, 2007 at 8:29:45 am
First, that is a pre-season ranking of big-men. That same pre-season ranking doesn’t have Luke Harangody as one of the ranked big men or the Irish ranked in the top 25. Bradshaw has average 13.3 pts a game, 6.3 reb and 1.3 assists. That is pretty decent for a “big man” except for the fact that he plays in the Big South (power ranked as 29 out of 31 conferences) and weighs only 240 pounds (talk about a toothpick).
Compare Bradshaw to Harangody and you will see they are pretty much even on the stat-line (11.5 ppg, 6.3 rbs, 1.2 assists), except for the fact Harangody has played against real teams in the Big East. Harangody is currently a massive 280. Bradshaw is going to get tossed around like a rag doll.
Plus, you haven’t addressed the fact that Winthrop hasn’t played a quality opponent since Jan 2nd. That was Texas A&M…which they lost to by 20. Oh, they also lost to Maryland by 11 (and if you saw that game it was really a disgusting blow out. That game was garbage time by the start of the 2nd half). You could argue Winthrop’s game against North Carolina as close, except for the fact it was North Carolina’s 2nd game and the team hadn’t really gelled yet. I guess you could argue the close game with Wisconsin, but Big10 basketball (all things not Oden) sucks this year.
March 15th, 2007 at 9:11:20 am
Texas A&M will win the national championship.
Oh, gee, thanks. We’re soooooooooooooo screwed.
(actually, I feer the Fighting Quakers)
March 15th, 2007 at 11:44:11 am
So how popular is an A&M pick, anyway Brendan? It seems to be the pick of the year in your pool, although it is a small sample size here.
And Fighting Quakers are an oxymoron. (Quakers as a religion are pacifists. Penn isn’t a Quaker university, just a private university that is associating itself with a piece of Pennsylvania history.) Because of this fact, they are going down. Also, they are from Philly, and I root against all teams Philly. They won the Ivy League, and I think A&M will handle them. Trust me, Penn always looks really good playing the bad Ivy League teams, and they flame out first round.
At least they make the tourney, unlike the Penn State Nitany Lions.