Thanks to Brendan for allowing me to chip in my two cents’ worth on the big Senate race here in Tennessee to replace Sen. Bill Frist’s seat. As a conservative on most things, I don’t particularly care for Senator Frist, and the man who replaces him certainly won’t be a great improvement.

I don’t know if it has been media hype fawning over Harold Ford, Jr., or if the polling indicating an almost dead-heat horserace was accurate, but the latest polls certainly don’t seem to look good for the guy from Memphis.

The polls throughout the bulk of the election have tended to show neither candidate taking a huge lead over the other, with them bouncing back and forth, holding percentage leads within the margins of error of the polls.

However, as the resident gambling “expert” here at BrendanLoy.com, my mind tells me to follow the money. The wagering money, that is. You just can’t fade the odds too much in wagering on election contests. The latest line has Mr. Corker as a huge favorite to defeat the young Congressman. My choice, if you’re betting, bet the dog with the money line because of the potential payoff, but expect Bob Corker to be the new junior Senator from Tennessee.

While Tennessee has of late come to be a pretty solid hold for most GOP candidates in statewide races, it is far from a hard-right conservative state. There are a number of left-leaning enclaves in the state, and the “conservatives” really aren’t. Unfortunately, Tennessee has a tendency to nominate (and elect) the most limp-wristed, useless Republicans imaginable. This election doesn’t rate to be any different. We’ll elect a middle-left Republican over a middle-right Democrat for Senate, but we’ll re-elect a middle-left Democrat governor over an “According to Hoyle” conservative Republican.

I’ll be posting some real-time updates on some issues of potential interest with the Senate race, and the other relevant races in Tennessee for you folks tomorrow. Also, FYI, Tennessee has a proposed Constitutional Amendment on the ballot regarding banning gay marriage. Interestingly, Tennessee requires that this not just pass with a simple majority, or even a super-majority to go into effect. To pass, this amendment would have to secure a majority, based on the number of votes cast in the race for Governor. In other words, if 2 Million votes are cast for Governor, the amendment has to receive 1,000,001 to pass, even if there’s not a single “NO” vote against.

Thanks again, Brendan, and we’ll see what the balance of power is tomorrow night.

At the moment, these are the candidates I’m planning to vote for tomorrow:

  • Dick Lugar (R) for U.S. Senate
  • Joe Donnelly (D) for U.S. House
  • Todd Rokita (R) for Secretary of State
  • Tim Berry (R) for State Auditor
  • Michael Griffin (D) for State Treasurer
  • B. Patrick Bauer (D) for State Representative

If anyone has some compelling reason why I should vote differently for any of the statewide offices, please let me know in comments — my mind is open. (My mind is pretty much made up about Donnelly.)

I’m not planning to vote in any of the county or local races. But again, if anyone wants to make an argument for why I should — and if so, for whom — please leave a comment.

P.S. Time is short. Because Becky will have the car in Elkhart all day, I may — repeat, may — end up doing something I’ve never done before: vote first thing in the morning.

From TNR’s The Plank:

I have a friend in Rhode Island–a Democrat torn between his affections for Lincoln Chafee and his desire to make Harry Reid majority leader. Over the weekend, my friend attended a Chafee event and cornered the senator. Now, my friend doesn’t have a personal relationship with Chafee, but he put the question bluntly to him: Why should I stick with you in a race with so many national implications? Chafee pulled my friend aside, lowered his voice, and told him that he might not be a Republican for much longer.

This is just one report. Take it for whatever its worth.

(Hat tip: National Review’s Sixers.)

Robert Novak has a handy list of key House races, sorted by the time the polls close. He says Indiana’s District 2 is leaning toward Donnelly, but writes:

Once given up for dead by the Beltway crowd, Rep. Chris Chocola (R) might actually be saved at the last second by dint of an extremely strong volunteer get-out-the-vote operation. He still trails his 2004 opponent, businessman Joe Donnelly (D) as of the last public polls.

This race is a bellwether. If Chocola somehow wins, it will be a testimony to the success of the RNC 72-hour program and the Rove-Mehlman election model. It will also be a sign that it’s worth staying up to see if Republicans can hold on to the House.

Novak says the polls here close at 7:00, but actually, they close at 6:00. Results will be posted here.

P.S. I just called the Chocola and Donnelly campaigns to find out where their respective post-election parties are. I’m not sure if I should extrapolate too much from this, but: a guy answered the phone at Chocola HQ, and it sounded like the place was buzzing. Nobody answered the phone at Donnelly HQ, and I had to leave a message. Hmm.

Anyway, Chocola’s post-election party is at Century Center, 120 South Saint Joseph Street, starting at 7:00 PM. Dunno about Donnelly’s.

My lifelong friend Diane from Connecticut sends along this report via e-mail:

There is some super intense anti-Lieberman campaigning going on here at Central [Connecticut State University], sponsored by LaRouche PAC. I first saw a stack of booklets in the library with the title headline “Youth Vote Decisive in Defeating Joe Lieberman,” which piqued my curiousity. The first article opens with: “When Lynne Cheney and her Dick want a dirty job done in Washington, they have invariably turned to ‘neo-con’ Joe Lieberman.” This 10 page booklet goes on to link Lieberman to various illegal acts and ill intentions. On leaving a class, I walked by a large booth with a half-dozen people handing these out and greeting each passerby with “Did you know we’re sending Lynne Cheney and Joe Lieberman back to hell together?” A guy talked to me for a while about how the two had managed to remove dozens of college professors for speaking out against the war in Iraq. He couldn’t name me any specific names. I was just walking through the dining hall on my way out for the day and this literature is on every table.

I don’t know much about politics, but this seems pretty crazy to me - and convenient that these claims are coming out the day before the election. I get the feeling this is going on at campuses all over the state …. just thought you might be interested to know.

First the LaRouchies crashed the debate, then they heckled Joe at a restaurant, and now this: distributing false, libelous propaganda to college students on Election Eve. These conspiracy clowns are becoming less amusing and more irritating by the minute.

All recent polls show Joe Lieberman leading Ned Lamont by 11 or 12 points, including a new Quinnipiac poll that has him up 49% to 37% to 8%. I think Schlesinger will end up in the low double digits, and as a result, Lieberman’s margin will end up in the high single digits. But things are looking good for Senator Joe.

Meanwhile, all three Republican House members from Connecticut — Simmons, Shays and Johnson — are in trouble. But the conventional wisdom is that a strong pro-Lieberman turnout will help the Republicans. My dad and I think this CW is very possibly wrong, as GOP gains caused by votes from conservative Lieberman supporters who wouldn’t otherwise vote could potentially be swamped by GOP losses due to the “Lieberman Dropoff,” a.k.a. the “Reverse Coattails Effect.” But practually no one except my dad and I are talking about the “dropoff” — it’s one of those election-nerd things that the media always misses — so if two or three of Connecticut’s Republicans hold onto their seats by narrow margins, the media and the Left will blame Lieberman, whether there’s any factual basis for it or not. So I really, really hope at least two of the Dem challengers win, because being blamed for causing the Dems to lose several House seats (and possibly the House majority) is the last thing Lieberman needs, or deserves.

Taking a bigger-picture view of tomorrow’s election, three consecutive late polls show substantial shrinkage in the Democrats’ national lead on the “generic ballot” for Congress. This could mean nothing, or it could mean quite a lot, as Mickey Kaus notes: “In 2002, remember, it was a generic ballot shift at the last minute…that signaled a disappointing day for Democrats.”

The blogger formerly known as Mystery Pollster isn’t sure what to make of it: “While these shifts this MAY signal a sharp change of opinion going into the weekend, the magnitude of the drop is quite uncertain with only three polls. We routinely see lots of variation across polls, especially when looking at the generic ballot margin. … It is likely that the individual polls are overstating the extent of the downturn.” But, more broadly speaking, there has been a downturn:

Across the board, in Senate, House and Governor’s races, the wave boosting the Democrats crested about 10 days ago. Since then the advantage Democrats have built throughout the year has been reduced by from 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. While forces are still a net positive to the Democrats, these forces are weaker than they were during the week before Halloween. This implies that the most competitive races will now be harder for Democrats to win and easier for Republicans to hold. This implies that the anticipation of a major surge to Democrats now needs to be reconsidered. While race-by-race estimates still show an 18 seat Democratic gain, and 27 seats as tossups (see our scorecard at Pollster.com here), this reduction in national forces makes it less likely the Democrats sweep the large majority of the tossup seats and could result in total gains in the 20s rather than the 30s or even 40s that looked plausible 10 days ago.

Kaus muses: “Is it all John Kerry’s fault? Ten days ago was Thursday, Oct. 26.–but Kerry’s comments didn’t come until four days later. That means the Dems had started downhill before Kerry even opened his mouth.”

Maybe so, but Kerry opening his mouth didn’t help. It rarely does.

UPDATE: Two newer late polls, from Fox and CNN, show larger Dem leads. Again, see here. But frankly, when it comes to polling, I trust Gallup and Pew more than I trust Fox and CNN.

UPDATE 2: Connecticut Local Politics says the Fox and CNN polls mean it’s time to “cancel the panic button.” Andrew Sullivan is encouraged by the Fox poll, which shows “Democratic generic lead of 13 points. This lead is the biggest recently reported by the same poll: it was 11 points a week ago and nine two weeks before that.”

With regard to the earlier polls, Kevin Drum writes:

The media/blog theme of the morning seems to be a barely concealed panic over the shrinking Democratic lead in various generic congressional polls. This is crazy. When you have a lead of 15 points or more, there’s only one direction to go. Of course the Democratic lead is shrinking.

A lot of the Dem lead in September and October polling was, I think, an expression of a vast, pent-up frustration with the Republican Party. But as election day nears, and advertising ramps up, and the reality of pulling the lever becomes more concrete, people tend to put away their frustration and get back to work, voting for whoever they usually vote for. Not all of them, but enough to make the political landscape look a little more normal.

In other words, there’s really nothing unexpected here, and I’m surprised that people with decades of experience in politics are nervous about this. As near as I can tell, Dems are going into Tuesday with a lead in the generic polls of 5-10%, which is huge, and with pretty good prospects in upwards of 40 congressional districts. The Senate races look about the way you’d expect, with Republicans gaining ground or holding on in red states (Montana, Tennessee, Arizona) and Democrats gaining ground or holding on in blue states (New Jersey, Maryland). Missouri and Virginia continue to be wild cards.

For what it’s worth, I think Democratic performance in close Senate races is the key variable to watch. In 2004 there were five Senate races decided by a swing of a percentage point or less, and Republicans won four of the five. If Republicans show the same prowess this year, Dems will only pick up a couple of seats. Stay tuned.

Needless to say, I’ll be liveblogging the election results tomorrow night… and my dad will probably file a few reports, including the traditional precinct report from my old elementary school… but I’d love to broaden the scope of my blog coverage a bit… so if anyone (in addition to my regular guestbloggers, of course), anywhere (but especially in any state/region with a hotly contested race or two) would be willing to do some blogging (whether via e-mail, camera phone, audioblog or whatever) tomorrow, please e-mail me at bloy [at] nd.edu.

There are myriad possibilities: taking photos of campaigners near your polling place, taking photos of the polling place itself, liveblogging from the polling place when they count up the votes after the polls close, liveblogging (or blogging after-the-fact) from a “victory party” for a local candidate, etc. etc. Your contribution to the Irish Trojan’s election coverage could be as simple as e-mailing me a photo, or as elaborate as writing up a whole report. Regardless, if you’re interested in contributing, shoot me an e-mail so we can work out the details.

If you haven’t entered my Midterm Election Contests yet, this is your last chance… the deadline is 11:59 PM tonight. Sign up now! And remember, please read the instructions closely on the entry form, especially in the Senate contest, as you’ll want to make sure your net gain/loss prediction and your “first tiebreakerâ€? prediction (which involves predicting individual states) are internally consistent.

Good luck!

P.S. In case anyone is wondering: it looks like the BrendanLoy.com consensus is that the Democrats will gain either 4 or 5 seats in the Senate — not the 6 they need for a majority. Large majorities expect them to take Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Montana. But conversely, large majorities expect the GOP to retain Tennessee and Virginia. Missouri is too close to call (currently, 14 out of 27 contestants think the Republican will win). In the House, meanwhile, the median Democratic net gain prediction is 20 seats — 5 more than they need to take back the majority. I’ll post more detailed statistics on the BrendanLoy.com community’s aggregate predictions tomorrow, after the deadline has expired but before the actual results begin coming in.

P.P.S. A reminder for those who have already entered the contest… you’re free to change your picks. You can either e-mail me and ask me to make whatever change you’d like to make, or you can fill out the whole entry form again, from scratch. The last entry received before 11:59 PM tonight will automatically be treated as your final, official entry, superceding any previous entries.

According to CNN, Vice President Dick Cheney will be spending this Election Day hunting. No word to as what small caged creatures he’ll be going after this time, but I can’t help think that perhaps it’s a last ditch effort to keep fellow Republicans from distancing themselves from the White House and its Iraq policy — which according to multiple polls, is an extremely unpopular issue with voters on both sides of the aisle this election season. It is reported that Cheney spent Election Day four years ago at the same lodge. Incidentally, South Dakota elected Bill Janklow that year, who was later convicted of manslaughter. So maybe that’s just how they do things up there.

As more and more Republicans run screaming from the administration and the war in Iraq, I suppose some way had to be found to keep them in line. With the Hammer gone, maybe then new tool is the Shotgun?

“Cheney’s got a gun….RINOs on the run….”

Heh.

I’ve been counting down to the 2012 Transit of Venus in the left sidebar for almost a year, but I almost missed the 2006 Transit of Mercury, which is this Wednesday! I would have totally missed it if my mom hadn’t e-mailed me about it last week.

Transits of Mercury aren’t nearly as dramatic as transits of Venus because Mercury is smaller and further away. They’re also far more common: 13 or 14 per century, instead of less than 2. But if you’re an astronomy nerd like me, they’re still well worth seeing. And, weather permitting, I should be able to see it. The transit is visible throughout the U.S., beginning at 2:12 PM EST and lasting until local sunset. (On the west coast, the entire transit is visible, from 11:12 AM to 5:10 PM PST.) Here’s what it’ll look like:

Animation by NASA

I’m flying to Denver from Chicago on Wednesday night, so I will probably leave for the Windy City a few hours early and head to the Adler Planetarium, which “will present a special public event for the transit of Mercury. The transit begins at 1:12 pm CST on November 8. Weather permitting, from 1 pm to approximately 4 pm [CST], telescopes will be available for Adler visitors to view Mercury against the background of the Sun.” My flight doesn’t leave until 8:50 PM CST, so the timing is perfect.

Remember, remember the fifth of November,
Gunpowder Treason and Plot,
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
should ever be forgot.

Here’s a penny for the Guy!

(Previous 11/5 post, explaining why I care about Guy Fawkes Day, here.)

Here’s the Buffalo News article about the UB football team’s blowout win over Kent State — a team which had been tied for first place in the MAC East before they ran into the Buffalo juggernaut. GO BULLS! :)

Incidentally, one of the funniest things that happened at yesterday’s Notre Dame game is that a couple of my friends accused me of being on the Buffalo bandwagon. That’s right, the Buffalo bandwagon. See, it’s a running theme among my ND friends that I’m regularly accused of being a bandwagon fan, which at least makes some sense when we’re talking about teams that are remotely good, like USC, the Red Sox, the Sabres, etc. But yesterday, after Becky and I celebrated the news that UB had won, Mike asked why it is that I was rooting for Buffalo. I explained that it’s because Becky is from there. Nick then sarcastically chimed in, “Yeah, Brendan’s a lifelong Sabres fan, too.” To which I replied words to the effect of: “Are you implying that I’m a bandwagon UB fan? Do you have any idea how bad Buffalo football is? How can I possibly be on the ‘bandwagon’ of the third-worst team in America?” :)

(Actually, they were fourth-worst as of last week, #116 out of 119… and I’m thinking this week they might climb into the Top 110! WOOHOO!! LET’S GO, BUFF-A-LO!!! Heh.)

P.S. Here is Bfloblog’s post about the Bulls win.

This is only the second time since 2001 that Buffalo has won two games in a season. (They went 1-11 in 2002, 1-11 again in 2003, 2-9 in 2004 and 1-10 last year.) One more win, and they’d equal their highest win total since moving to Division I-A in 1999. Remaining games: at Akron (4-5) on Thursday, at #17 Wisconsin (9-1) on Nov. 18, and at home against Central Michigan (6-3) on Nov. 24.

Okay, maybe this is just a pet peeve, I’m getting really sick of the revisionist history that claims the Trojans’ recent “close games were a far cry from recent years, when USC overwhelmed the opposition on the way to national championships in 2003 and ‘04 and a loss in the title game last season to Texas.” That’s simply NOT TRUE! The Trojans had a ton of close games in their championship and near-championship years. They just happened to win ‘em all (except Cal in ‘03 and Texas in ‘05, of course).

Well, okay: it’s true that none of USC’s games in 2003 after the loss to Cal were close. But in 2004, they trailed at halftime against Virginia Tech and ultimately won by just 11 in a “sloppy” game; trailed by 11 at halftime to Stanford and barely pulled out a 3-point win; had to mount a near-miraculous goalline stand in the final minute to beat Cal by 6; fell behind 13-0 and ultimately won by just 8 over Oregon State; and survived 29-24 against UCLA.

And in 2005, in addition to the super-close, uber-exciting games against Notre Dame and Fresno State that everyone remembers, the Trojans also fell behind 13-0 and trailed at halftime against Oregon, although the final margin was lopsided; trailed 21-3 at halftime and 28-24 with less than four minutes remaining before pulling out a 38-28 win over Arizona State; and came out flat against Arizona, failing to put the game away until the fourth quarter.

That trio of games — Oregon, ASU and Arizona — occurred in the three weeks preceding the ND game, and there was a lot of talk leading up to October 15, 2005 about the Trojans coming out flat and looking eminently beatable. The major difference between the streaks of subpar play in ‘05 and ‘06 is that the ‘05 streak’s final stop was a dramatic win over ND, whereas the ‘06 streak peaked with a loss to Oregon State. That’s a big difference, obviously. But it is certainly not true, as some in the media want to imply, that because USC isn’t dominant every week, they’re necessarily vastly inferior to recent years’ Trojan teams and thus should not be taken seriously. (They might in fact be vastly inferior, but “they’ve had some close games” doesn’t prove the point.) Recent years’ Trojan teams have actually had very similar struggles. The question is how these Trojans will respond. So far, so good.

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