Greg Rauen wins Senate Contest

It’s official: Notre Dame 3L Greg Rauen has edged out Patrick Cullen in the BrendanLoy.com Senate Contest — by a margin of 227 votes for Joe Lieberman in Connecticut.

The Connecticut Secretary of the State’s official canvass of vote was completed yesterday, and the final results are now online. They show no major changes from a week ago: Joe Lieberman beat Ned Lamont by 113,251 votes out of 1,134,780 cast — a percentage margin of 9.979996123% (or, rounded off, 9.98%).

In the BrendanLoy.com contest, Rauen predicted that Lieberman would win by 8%; Cullen said he’d win by 12%. Rauen was thus ever-so-slightly closer to the correct margin than Cullen. Because they both predicted a nationwide Democratic net gain of six seats, and both correctly picked all eleven closely contested states (the “first tiebreaker”), the race was decided by the “second tiebreaker” — Lieberman’s margin over Lamont.

A margin of 113,478 votes would have been exactly 10 percent, splitting the difference between Rauen’s and Cullen’s predictions (and causing the race to come down to the “third tiebreaker,” Rauen’s more accurate prediction of Alan Schlesinger’s percentage total). Lieberman’s actual margin, 113,251, was 227 votes less than that. This means a shift of 114 voters from Lamont to Lieberman would have thrown the BrendanLoy.com contest to Cullen.

Anyway, congrats to Greg on his victory! Full standings can be seen here.

Cullen is still alive in the BrendanLoy.com House Contest, which remains undecided pending two remaining undecided races: Texas’s 23rd District, where the Republican incumbent faces a runoff on December 12, and Florida’s 13th District, where the Republican incumbent apparently won by 0.16% but his Democratic opponent has the challenged the result in court due to possible voting-machine error. If the Republican candidates ultimately win both races, Cullen will win the contest. If the Democrat wins either or both, Tony Badger will win.

2 Responses to “Greg Rauen wins Senate Contest”

  1. aiter says:

    ” Do you want to know who are the several most famous swindlers NPCs in the CWOW

    ?”
    game

  2. Ken says:

    I demand a recount!!! Obviously the tiebreakers were supposed to be cumulative not serial! :)))

    PS – Congratulations Greg