So, here’s where things stand after “Separation Saturday.” With Oklahoma and Florida State losing, the Big 12 and ACC no longer have any credible threats to go undefeated. The SEC has three, or perhaps four: Auburn, Florida, Georgia and maybe Alabama. Obviously, only one of those three can actually, ultimately finish unbeaten. Meanwhile, the November 18 Ohio State-Michigan game could potentially be a battle of two undefeated, championship-contending teams from the Big Ten (though I predict Penn State will stun the Wolverines in Happy Valley on Oct. 14). And USC continues to look like the real deal. ESPN’s analysts rated their performance against Nebraska tonight a C+ by Trojan standards, and Booty looked somwhat less Bootylicious in the second half, yet they still routed a ranked team, 28-10. Bob Davie said these Trojans could ultimately be scary good, and he’s right. Kirk Herbstreit is right, too, when he says what I’ve been saying for months: USC’s schedule is very favorable, lending itself to a distinct possibility of a 12-0 season. If that happens, and if the OSU-Michigan winner is undefeated, it seems entirely possible that an undefeated SEC team could again be left out of the BCS title game. (Needless to say, an undefeated Big East team has no chance of reaching the BCS title game unless there are fewer than two undefeateds from the other five big conferences, notwithstanding how well the Big East has done in OOC play so far. And even then, they might not make it. Oh, and TCU’s best realistic hope is a Fiesta Bowl bid, even if they go undefeated.)
On the other side of the undefeated/once-beaten sweepstakes, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, LSU, Tennessee and Florida State join Texas in the “root against the undefeateds” club, hoping against hope that they’ll somehow worm their way back into the national-championship picture. It’s especially plausible in the case of Notre Dame and Texas, since they started out ranked so high. Of course, they need to win out, and they need a lot of help. Meanwhile, with its second loss, a blowout by Louisville, Miami drops out of the picture entirely, and Larry Coker finds himself seriously on the hot seat.
Oh, and alas, the “perfect BCS sh*tstorm” scenario is officially shot. It required a Notre Dame win over Michigan and an Oklahoma win over Oregon, neither of which happened. (The scenario was: Ohio State beats Texas, which beats Oklahoma, which beats Oregon, which beats USC, which beats Notre Dame, which beats Michigan, which beats Ohio State, and all seven of those teams finish with one loss — all to one another.) That said, there are still plenty of crazy scenarios that could happen, still plenty of ways the BCS could blow itself up. Imagine, for instance, Ohio State finishes undefeated and undisputed #1, while Notre Dame rallies from today’s defeat and runs the table, beating USC in its finale to finish #2 in the AP poll — ahead of #3 West Virginia, even though the Mountaineers are undefeated. Who gets the BCS title-game bid? Does a one-loss Notre Dame, having finished its season with a major “statement” win in L.A., get in ahead of an undefeated West Virginia squad that hasn’t beaten anybody good except injury-depleted Louisville? Of course, that isn’t going to happen, because USC is going to beat the Irish :), but that’s just an example of one possible fun scenario.
|
Categories: College Football
|
September 17th, 2006 at 12:41:35 am
It will be interesting to see how the polls shake out. How far do you drop Notre Dame and raise Michigan? Seems ludicrus to have the Irish at 2-1 be above a 3-0 Michigan team that just pummeled them. Same with Oklahoma and Oregon. Again this highlights the dual problems of the polls:
1) Polls this early in the season are ridiculous, there just isn’t enough info, and pre-season polls even more so.
2) Polls where you base your rankings from where a team previously was this early in the season are equally ridiculous. If the number 1 pre-season team loses their first game, wins their second, and then loses their third, it is entirely likely they will still be in the top 25. Meanwhile an unranked team can go 3-0 to start the season and be unranked.
September 17th, 2006 at 12:45:06 am
First, no way a one-loss team gets in the national title game ahead of West Virginia. While West Virginia earns a lot of doubts because of their schedule in the Big East, a sizeable number of pollsters believe in them because of their lethal QB-RB duo and the fact they beat Georgia in Atlanta in the Sugar Bowl. An undefeated TCU might get left out, but not West Virginia.
Second, because of the unbelievable number of games that involved Top 25 teams today, I expect the polls to get really shaken up, so I wouldn’t worry about things like Michigan being ranked below the ND team they just beat.
September 17th, 2006 at 1:00:38 am
No credible threats to go undefeated in the ACC? Are you smoking the crack? ;-) Seriously though, VT is a very credible threat, Miami and Clemson were our toughest upcoming games but Miami isn’t looking so scary any more and Clemson plays in Blacksburg on a Thursday night and our Thursday night record speaks for itself.
I would say don’t sell the Hokies short but we actually do better when everyone says we won’t go anywhere.
GO HOKIES!!!
September 17th, 2006 at 1:31:13 am
Clemson looks scary, I could see them beating Virginia Tech.
I agree, Brendan, that Penn State could (and probably will) shock Michigan in Happy Valley. (I wonder if I can get tickets for that - with Michigan looking better, it may be worth it to see my nemesis lose - the trip isn’t that far from here, and I may be able to take my Dad, a huge Penn State fan who actually went there). The tickets are insane, though.
I’m still thinking that Penn State could have a shot against Ohio State next week - the defense and offense have potential. As I’ve said before, its a young team that can mature into a much better team. Also, we beat Ohio State last year (though there were some key differences, and the game was in Happy Valley). I think that next year, Penn State is going to be a high level contender - we get a lot of the harder games at home - we have to beat Michigan in the Big House, though, which will be tough.
Anyway, I think we can still contend for the Big Ten title. Its probably going to be between Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. There may be a team or two left in there as well.
September 17th, 2006 at 3:02:29 am
Wait wait wait….so Michigan thumps Notre Dame AT HOME who previously thumped Penn State and you guys want me to buy that Penn State is going to beat Michigan? I mean it would be one thing if they were close games but seriously?!?!
September 17th, 2006 at 3:08:33 am
First of all, football is not governed by the transitive property. We all know this, so let’s not go there. Different games, different game plans, different circumstances, potentially different results. Anyone can win on any given day. I’m not saying Penn State is better than Michigan… I’m just saying I think Penn State can pull the upset.
September 17th, 2006 at 3:17:19 am
Anyone can win on any given day.
Well… unless it’s Buffalo against, say, USC. :)
September 17th, 2006 at 4:47:03 am
Yes i am well aware that the transitive property doesn’t apply to football, but what evidence so far has Penn State given the demonstrates it has any hope of beating Michigan???
September 17th, 2006 at 6:24:44 pm
David: you have to remember that Penn State lost on the road. The game against Michigan will be at home, in the second biggest stadium in the US of A. Not only that, but they will be a bit charged up after thinking they were robbed (heck, they were) in Ann Arbor last year. Plus, this is a young offense, and young offenses can get pretty good by October.
If Penn State were going to the Big House this year, I wouldn’t be calling for the upset (I’d be PULLING for it, but not saying it is likely). However, this is in Happy Valley, and Penn State does really well in Happy Valley. (Its what keeps the valley happy.)
Paul Poslusny (I have horribly mangled that name) looked better against Youngstown State, too, so he may be a much bigger factor than he was in the Notre Dame game.
Note that I am NOT saying Penn State is likely to beat Ohio State next week. At least, in my more even handed football fan mode, I’m not. In my Penn State fan mode, we can beat any team, any week, and Penn State is definately finishing 11-1. ;) But the realist in me sees a loss next week (I see some reasons we might win, but I think a loss is more likely), and that same realist sees a much better chance of Penn State beating Michigan.
Remember, too, that this Michigan team is known for being inconsistent. This was pretty much the same team that dealt Penn State their only loss, and lost to Notre Dame. I want to see more from the hated Wolverines before I jump on their bandwagon. (Well, at least until I grudgingly say “they’re good this year”.) I think that Notre Dame was a bit overrated, that Penn State probably was too (at least by me), and that Michigan beating them like that does not make them a great football team. I want to see them against Wisconsin and Minnesota, two lesser teams than ND, before I say they are a hugely great team. They need to beat those two teams in a quality manner (doesn’t have to be a spanking like ND, but they do have to be wins that show me that show me that they aren’t struggling).
Anyway, basically I’m saying that Michigan is overrated until they prove otherwise.